War on Iran rattles Bangladesh dollar market

The US dollar exchange rate against the taka held almost flat through late February before beginning a slow, gradual climb into March.

The shift in the curve comes as taka started to weaken with the beginning of the US-Israel’s war against Iran in March and the subsequent conflicts across the Middle East, mainly because cautious banks began trading the greenback among themselves at higher rates.

This latest fall of taka has revived memories of the 2022-23 currency stress.

At that period, heavy import bills, rising global commodity prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and slower remittance inflows and export earnings coincided with a rapidly depleting foreign currency reserve.

This time, however, the forex reserve stands at a much more comfortable level and dollar flow to the local market remains almost normal. But banks have shifted into a cautious mode triggered by the war in the Middle East.

The commercial lenders fear a prolonged war could again push up import bills, while a large share of expatriate Bangladeshis in the Gulf might send less money home.

“Many banks have taken a cautious approach due to the uncertainty ahead,” said Mati ul Hasan, managing director of Mercantile Bank. “However, the real impact will be understood after about a week.”

Yesterday, the weighted average interbank exchange rate stood at Tk 122.69 per dollar, up from Tk 122.58 a day earlier, according to the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

The rate was Tk 122.49 on Monday and Tk 122.43 on Sunday, according to BB data.

A top official of an import-dependent industrial group based in Chattogram told The Daily Star that banks have not yet faced a real shortage of US dollars, but some are “trying to create an artificial crisis”.

He said banks are demanding between Tk 122.90 and Tk 123 per dollar when opening letters of credit (LCs). The rate is even higher in the case of forward sales, he added.

A forward dollar sale is a binding contract to sell dollars at a fixed price on a future date, regardless of the market rate at that time.

Yesterday, state-run Sonali Bank quoted Tk 122.75 per dollar for spot selling, while its spot buying rate ranged between Tk 121.68 and Tk 121.80. Private commercial BRAC Bank quoted Tk 122.95 per dollar for selling and Tk 121.95 for buying.

Dhaka Bank quoted Tk 122.99 per dollar for bills for collection selling and Tk 121.50 for buying yesterday. Mercantile Bank offered the dollar at Tk 122.90 for selling and Tk 121.60 for buying.

Mercantile Bank MD Hasan said that since the flow of dollars had been strong for quite some time and the market remained liquid, banks had not worried much about making payments.

However, they now need to plan ahead because of rising uncertainty, he said, adding that dollar inflows are not evenly distributed across banks, which may prompt some lenders to slightly raise their rates.

“Still, the situation has not become very unstable yet. Conditions could deteriorate if the war continues for long,” said Hasan.

Meanwhile, BB officials said the central bank has stopped intervening in the market, meaning it is no longer supplying dollars from its stocks to support the taka. As a result, the currency has started to weaken.

They also noted that fuel prices in the international market have risen sharply, which could push up import costs and lead to volatility in the foreign exchange market in the coming days.

Considering that potential impact, BB has also stopped purchasing US dollars from the market, they added.

The central bank bought more than $5 billion from the foreign exchange market in FY26 as of March 2. The purchases helped lift the country’s foreign exchange reserve.

Forex reserve stood at $34 billion as of Sunday, according to BB. However, the reserve stood at $29.38 billion based on the IMF calculation.

Between FY21 and FY25, BB sold more than $25 billion from its reserve to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser and food.

After the war broke out, the new BB governor hinted that the regulator could provide dollar support from the reserve to import fuel if needed, officials said. But leading economists at a meeting last week advised the governor to remain cautious about spending from the reserve as tensions in the Middle East could trigger fresh economic shocks.

They said rising global fuel prices linked to the crisis could increase the country’s import bill and eventually put pressure on the foreign exchange reserve.

The economists urged the central bank to explore alternative funding sources to settle fuel import payments instead of depending on the reserve.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, a private sector economic and investment advisory platform, was among the economists who met the governor.

He told The Daily Star yesterday that the situation could deteriorate sharply if the Middle East war lasts for a month.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fuel prices have already increased significantly, he said, adding that this will push up import costs in the coming days.

“Due to this possibility, the price of the US dollar is also rising. It may increase further in the future because higher import costs will put additional pressure on foreign currency.”

Reaz said the current fuel rationing should continue. Besides, the government needs to estimate how much fuel will be required and what the cost will be over the next six months and one year, he said.

Based on that assessment, loans could be sought from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or other multilateral lenders, said the economist. “The borrowed funds should be used to import fuel. In addition, projects that are currently stalled should be restarted quickly so that foreign funding can flow into the country.”