Endgames and lessons for Bangladesh
Veteran diplomat, M Humayun Kabir, explains the current escalation of war in the Middle East and the ramifications for Bangladesh, in an exclusive interview with Ramisa Rob, Geopolitical Insights Editor at The Daily Star
How has the current war and the Trump administration been different to US foreign policy you witnessed firsthand?
During the Bush administration, we have seen the US attacks on Iraq. Then during Obama’s time as well, we have seen Libya disintegrating thanks to the US involvement. The US establishment does have a tendency to get involved in external wars. But what makes President Trump’s administration different from his predecessors is that both the Bush and Obama administrations used multilateral facilities more. They would rally different countries and build up a coalition, then go into military action.
President Trump is more inclined to take unilateral initiatives, without as much consultations or taking Congress into as much of a consideration before going to war. We have seen what he has done in Venezuela. My sense is, that example inspired him to do something similar in Iran.
Do you think Trump is looking for an exit plan?
After nearly two weeks, he must be looking at some exit plans. As political analysts have stated in the US press, the administration seems to have gone to war thinking it would have been a short one and lead to regime change in Iran. But Iran is an extremely resilient country. Trump said that the war will end soon, but Iran has said they are not ready to end it now.
After 8 years, in 1988, Iran agreed to a ceasefire with the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. Motjaba Khamenei, who has just been elected as the new supreme leader, also fought in the Iran-Iraq war. The leaders of Iran are veterans of the war. Iran wants to remove the “shadow of war,” permanently. Iranian scholars are indicating a few demands to the US: guarantee of non-aggression; withdrawal of US bases from the Gulf nations; acknowledge their right to useful use of nuclear energy; and compensation for damages caused from the war. All these elements provide a framework of what could come, as parties search for a way out.
How long can Iran last against the US — historically the most powerful nation in the world?
For Iran, the survival of the regime is not a big deal. Iran has been under sanctions for nearly 40 years. The war is devastating for them. The US and Israel have the capacity to destroy Iran. But the regime in Iran would bet on surviving at the minimum, despite the destruction. If someone can survive at rock bottom, it is difficult to push them down even further. Iran is dexterous at asymmetric warfare. They know they cannot fight the US and Israel face-to-face. They are using other tools: the power of geography and economy by choking the Strait of Hormuz, putting a lot of pressure on the Gulf nations, the entire international community and the US as well. Iran is using whatever leverage it has, and using it intelligently.
We, in Bangladesh, are not at war but we’re facing multiple challenges. We’re seeing huge lines at the petrol pumps. A panic has caught up with the users of petrol and fuel. Our economy is in a fragile state — our inflation will go up if the war continues for another few weeks. There are millions of expatriate workers living in the Middle East, who form the remittance lifeline. Due to the disruptions to economic activities in the region, many people will also lose work if the war continues.
How can Bangladesh’s government insulate the economy from negative impact in the long-run?
The current government is talking to different countries for oil supply, such as gasoline from China and diesel from India. In the long-term, we need to focus on renewable energy. So far, we have only been talking about it and there has been practically no contribution of renewable energy to our energy supply. This war should be a lesson to improve our energy security. We also have both onshore and offshore gas. For the last 12 years, no progress has taken place. It is time for Bangladesh to find a new strategy for energy for the long-run.
Is getting Russian oil refined through India an option for an emergency solution?
Russian crude oil is thick, and cannot be suitably processed in our refineries. We can look at the opportunity of importing Russian oil through India, if we can do that. India has been given 30-day relief by the US, and I am sure India will be importing a lot.
There have been reports in Middle East Monitor, though it hasn’t been substantiated by the government, that Iran is granting Bangladesh safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Will that grant relief?
If it happened, I would say it’s a gracious move on the part of Iran to give us the concession of safe passage. However, even if they have given us that facility, getting the vessels and insurance companies to cover that, will not be easy. Regardless, if we can get that, my position would be: let’s try it.
How would that impact the relationship with the US though?
Well, my sense is that if the US can give relief to India to import Russian oil, we can very well approach the United States and ask to bring oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz to Bangladesh.
Is now the time to defer LDC graduation?
I think the new Bangladesh government has already decided and applied for deferral to the United Nations. My understanding is that Bangladesh may get three years of deferral time, to graduate in 2029. Even then, we need to focus on the graduation process with the Iran war shaking us again. My personal observation is that previous processes were more of a slogan than a preparation.
LDC graduation will require massive internal reforms. We will lose our preferential access, and Bangladesh will have to renegotiate agreements with all our partners. That will be very difficult especially with the reciprocal tariff agreement that we have signed with the United States. We will have to sign similar agreements with India, China, the European Union which is already in talks with Bangladesh to sign GSP plus facilities. The moment we ask the EU to give us such facilities, we have to sign all the human rights records and so on. What this means is that we have to make ourselves more competitive on multiple fronts.
We have to reorganise our economic management, our governance structure, our skills management, among others. All of these elements need reforms, in order to be brought to a global, competitive standard. So, we need to take massive measures to prepare, and ensure that the transition will be less painful.
What should the people and government of Bangladesh focus on now?
The war should be a reminder that the world outside is very uncertain. If we want to weather through such uncertainty, consolidation of our homefront is very important. The July uprising has given indications of which way to go. We really need to focus on reforms and build a consensus-based, inclusive political structure so that Bangladesh can go beyond both the domestic transition — characterised by the rising aspirations of people — and the economic transition that is coming up, along with the geopolitical shifts that are occurring from the war in Iran. We have to think differently. We have to do things differently. Only then, we can face the challenges ahead with dignity as a nation.