How an NCP-Jamaat coalition benefits the Jamaat and BNP more

The formation of an electoral coalition between the National Citizen Party (NCP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami ahead of the upcoming national election signals a decisive shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Rather than three major blocs competing for parliament, the country is now heading towards a contest between two large coalitions. Given the NCP’s organisational limitations at the grassroots level, this outcome was perhaps inevitable.

Although the NCP has run high-profile campaigns in the past, most notably the July Podojatra (the July march), its reach beyond urban district centres has remained limited. The party, born out of the July uprising, derives much of its legitimacy from the visible role its leaders played in that movement. Figures such as Nahid Islam, Hasnat Abdullah, and Sarjis Alam are widely known even in rural Bangladesh, and expectations surrounding them are high. Yet, popularity alone does not translate into votes.

During fieldwork across Rangpur and Panchagarh, I repeatedly heard the same sentiment from potential NCP supporters: they want direct, personal engagement. Voters expect party activists to visit their homes, speak with them face-to-face, and ask for their support. This absence of sustained man-to-man communication, driven largely by NCP’s lack of manpower, has been the key obstacle preventing the party from becoming a formidable contender at the ballot box.

This is where Jamaat-e-Islami’s organisational strength becomes crucial. Jamaat’s coordinated grassroots network and disciplined cadre can bridge the gap between NCP’s popular appeal and actual voter mobilisation. Unlike alliances with larger parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which often fail to deliver unified electoral support, Jamaat’s reputation for internal discipline ensures that coalition decisions are followed almost unanimously by its supporters. For NCP, this offers a reliable mechanism to convert sympathy into votes.

However, this alliance is not without serious risks for the NCP. Jamaat may attempt to reposition itself as a key architect of the July uprising, gradually appropriating the very legitimacy that sustains the NCP. If Jamaat succeeds in redefining the public memory of July, NCP risks losing its foundational political capital. We are already seeing the effort through Jamaat-Shibir’s rebranding of their politics, agendas, and slogans based on the July uprising, which is quite similar to NCP. This narrative is already being amplified by online propaganda networks associated with both the fallen Awami League and Jamaat-aligned actors.

There is also the danger of ideological drift. By joining a coalition dominated by Islamist parties, NCP risks being perceived as a right-wing force rather than a centrist one. Comparisons with past Jamaat alliances involving BNP or the Awami League are misleading. Those parties had already established their ideological identities before entering such coalitions. NCP, by contrast, is still in the process of defining its political character. Entering an alliance too early may result in its absorption into a larger ideological framework, rather than the emergence of an independent political force. The most visible setback for the NCP would be losing representation in the upper house of the national assembly. Rather than contesting all 300 constituencies, the party is reportedly competing in fewer than 30, although they hope to secure more. Such limited participation will almost certainly reduce its overall vote share and could, in turn, weaken its influence over policymaking in the next five years.

For Jamaat, however, the timing could not be better. This is arguably the most favourable political moment the party has experienced in Bangladesh’s 54-year history. Historically opposed by Deobandi and Sunni Islamist parties such as Islami Andolon Bangladesh, Khelafat-e-Majlish, and clerical networks like Hefajat-e-Islam, Jamaat has now managed to reduce doctrinal tensions in favour of a broader Islamist political front. Recent victories by its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, in student council elections nationwide have further energised the party. Jamaat today is highly organised, digitally savvy, and tightly disciplined at the grassroots level.

Yet, history offers a cautionary note. Bangladeshi voters have consistently favoured centrist politics, and no Islamist party-led coalition has won national power since independence in 1971. NCP’s inclusion may help soften the coalition’s general ideological image. Unlike other partners, NCP planned but faltered in fielding female candidates, an important symbolic distinction in a coalition where parties like Jamaat and Islami Andolon Bangladesh have nominated none. Moreover, NCP brings nationally recognised young leaders whose prominence during the July 2024 uprising resonates strongly with young voters, which was also missing from the coalition.

The final piece of the puzzle is the BNP. How does this coalition benefit them?

BNP should take lessons from the failures of its student wing, Bangladesh Jatiotabadi Chatra Dal, which suffered significant defeats in recent university student council elections. Bangladesh Islami Chhatra Shibir’s electoral tactics—particularly the use of “dummy” candidates—played a decisive role. In elections such as the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU), Shibir fielded both official candidates and seemingly independent, non-affiliated candidates with strong personal appeal. These dummy candidates fragmented the anti-Shibir, centrist and leftist votes, while Shibir’s own candidates consolidated both loyal and swing voters. A Jamaat-NCP coalition would largely neutralise the risk of a similar tactic being deployed against the BNP in national elections, since there would be no third major bloc capable of splitting the broader centrist vote bank. BNP’s main remaining challenge, instead, would be containing internal rebel candidates in certain constituencies.

Had the NCP instead formed a third coalition with parties such as the AB Party and Gono Odhikar Parishad (GOP), BNP would have faced a greater threat. Such a bloc could have drawn substantial support from centrist voters. By entering a right-leaning coalition instead, NCP effectively clears the middle ground for the BNP. Historically a centre-right party, and with Tarique Rahman showing no intention of shifting that position, the BNP now stands to consolidate leftist, centre-left, and centre-right voters all alone in the absence of the Awami League.

In that sense, the NCP-Jamaat coalition does more than reshape the opposition; it simplifies the electoral battlefield. For NCP itself, however, while it hopes to bank on coalition strength for electoral advantage, the arrangement ultimately risks compromising its long-term potential and leverage.

Md Ashikur Rahman is research associate at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), BRAC University. He can be reached at ashikur.rahman1@bracu.ac.bd. 

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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