We need to build our flood forecasting and management capacity

As the world grapples with the increasing effects of climate change, heavy precipitation events have become a common challenge. Bangladesh, with its vast network of rivers, its topography, and its location, is particularly vulnerable. The recent devastating floods in the country mirror a global pattern, exemplified by the catastrophic flooding in Derna in Libya, where historic rainfall led to dam failures and over 4,000 deaths. This disaster starkly illustrates the dangers posed by extreme weather and failing infrastructure.

Bangladesh receives a massive influx of water and sediment from India. The recent flooding, driven by an unusually high volume of rainfall over a short period, overwhelmed levees and caused breaches at numerous locations, leading to unprecedented flooding in the eastern districts of the country. Parts of Bangladesh recorded over 400 millimetres of rain in less than 72 hours. Heavy rainfall in India's Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam states, where the terrain accelerates water flow into Bangladesh, further worsened the situation.

India's decision to open the floodgates of the Dumboor reservoir has sparked criticism in Bangladesh, but it was a necessary step to prevent an even greater catastrophe. Had the dams failed, the disaster would have been far worse for both countries. My research team's analysis of the Derna disaster, where thousands perished, shows that the situation would have been much less severe if the dams had not failed—or if they had not existed at all—underscoring the critical need for infrastructure maintenance and taking a holistic approach to flood management.

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We must reduce our vulnerability to flood

A report in the Bangla daily Prothom Alo notes that India did not inform Bangladesh about the rising water levels in its rivers, despite a common practice of doing so twice daily. As a downstream country, Bangladesh has the right to receive timely information from India about impending disasters. Whether India failed to share this vital information or Bangladesh failed to act on it needs to be probed.

Given India's track record of heavy-handed approach to managing shared rivers with Bangladesh, it is not surprising that many in Bangladesh are blaming India for the ongoing flooding. However, the flooding appears to be primarily driven by extreme precipitation, not by the release of water from a reservoir with a relatively small surface area. Blaming others can only go so far. As Bangladesh emerges from the revolution, the nation has a unique opportunity to become self-reliant. Bangladesh needs to bolster its capacity for disaster management, guided by science, confident diplomacy, and the national interest.

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Bangladesh needs revolutionary changes to deal with floods

The most important task now is for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive mindset in all sectors of governance, including disaster management. This involves fostering professionalism within government agencies and academic institutions, establishing dedicated research cells staffed by competent experts, and building critical capacities in data collection and analysis. The government should also seek expertise from the Bangladeshi diaspora at this crucial juncture in the country's history.

Developing local capacities for accurate and timely flood forecasting, alongside effective early warning systems, is crucial. Comprehensive flood preparedness plans, including community-based risk reduction strategies and cross-border collaboration, are equally important.

Bangladesh must shift from depending entirely on others for critical data to building its own capacity. The country has a history of overcoming adversity, and the current challenge of increasingly severe climate impacts can be met with the same determination. By focusing on developing the necessary skills, adapting technology, and designing and building resilient infrastructure, Bangladesh can better protect its people and secure its future.

Jasim Imran is professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of South Carolina. Views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not reflect those of any organisation, institution, or entity with which he is associated.

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