In the book The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, a professor of development economics at Oxford University, introduced the concept of "Conflict Trap," wherein a nation becomes entangled in a recurring cycle of violence, leading to a prolonged state of poverty and under-development.

Meanwhile, the "spirit of independence" is not a collection of mere slogans and rhetoric; it encompasses democracy, pluralism, and a commitment to building an inclusive state. Despite the fact that almost every individual in Bangladesh upholds these principles, a split along this line has unfortunately been nurtured for political and personal gains.

The political parties, state institutions, professional bodies, and civil societies have now aligned themselves with either Awami League or BNP, creating a stark division across the entire nation. This Conflict Trap, if not mitigated, can eventually transform the country into a failed state. 

BNP and its coalition partners are presently engaged in a countrywide demonstration calling for elections to be conducted under a caretaker government. What is the likelihood of their success? 

Collier's research has revealed a connection between per capita income, government structure, and the probability of widespread protests. His hypothesis suggests that in autocratic regimes, the probability of popular movement increases with higher per capita income since protesters don't have to worry about their day-to-day livelihood. Conversely, in democracies, mass protests can occur even with a low per capita income, as the risk of arrests and repression is lower in such environments.

Under that hypothesis, in Bangladesh, it is anticipated that protests will primarily be driven by the younger generations of the middle and upper-middle classes, encompassing students, unemployed youth, professional bodies, and labour unions. But today, the young generation is clearly averse to politics due to the absence of a viable alternative capable of bringing desired change in the country. 

BNP is encountering difficulties in its protests, mainly attributed to the lack of active engagement from the general population. If the party fails to garner enough support for its movement, it may encounter a significant existential setback.

Elections under authoritarian regimes, Collier mentioned in one of his lectures, can be vulnerable to manipulation through different tactics such as buying votes, tampering with ballot boxes, manipulating vote counts and using violence to intimidate citizens. Opposition leaders may also be disqualified from elections based on allegations of corruption or involvement in violence, potentially leading to their imprisonment. 

Given the present political situation in Bangladesh, an election lacking the participation of BNP, even if conducted fairly, may not gain recognition from the voters and the international community. This could position the BNP as victims in the eyes of the people, consequently eliciting their sympathy and potentially fuelling the escalation of protests. A prolonged movement carries the risk of destabilising the country, leading to significant social and economic repercussions.

The imposition of economic sanctions, even on a limited scale, could inflict devastating consequences on garment exports, resulting in the loss of millions of jobs. While I believe the US and EU may refrain from taking such a path due to the impact on the most vulnerable, the mere perception of this threat has the potential to severely affect an already fragile economy. 

The combined outcome of all those can lead to adverse effects on the dollar's exchange rate, remittance inflows, and foreign direct investments. Job losses and soaring commodity prices may push people into poverty, prompting them to join mass protests against the government. This grim scenario could evolve into a nightmarish situation for a future government.

Since both the major parties face serious setbacks if the conflict continues, it is for their own interests that they must sit together for a mutually agreed solution. A functional democracy thrives on a harmonious and trusting relationship between the ruling party and the opposition. Under the current situation, two conditions must be met for a resolution: firstly, removing the zero sum dynamics from politics, that is the losing party should not face a prospect of losing everything, and secondly, a process of conducting a free fair and inclusive election.  

To eradicate the zero-sum dynamic from the political landscape, the late economist Dr Akbar Ali Khan advocated for the implementation of the Proportional Representation system in the electoral process in Bangladesh. In this system, the allocation of seats in a legislative body is determined by the proportion of total votes each political party reaps. Statistical data indicates that in a comprehensive and just election, both parties consistently secure nearly equal numbers of votes. This ensures that each party has a fair opportunity to succeed in an unbiased election, and in the event of defeat, both possess equal prospects of forming a strong opposition with approximately 30 percent of MPs in the parliament-strong enough to counteract any subsequent unjust oppressive measures by the government.

The impartiality of an election relies heavily on the individuals involved in the actual process rather than on the Election Commission (EC). Individuals having conflicts of interest with the government must not be engaged with the process. Instead, individuals from retired judicial, civil, military, and police services with experience in conducting elections and not affiliated with any political party can be appointed to take on the roles of returning officers, assistant returning officers, magistrates, and commanding officers of law enforcement bodies. 

Presiding officers can be sourced from the officers of the private banks and non-government organisations. Small law enforcement units deployed in the polling centres can be drawn from non-officer ranks of the armed forces, border guards and police force commanded by junior commissioned officers (JCOs). Junior ranks still represent least politicised segments within the disciplined forces. Additionally, the involvement of cadets from the Bangladesh National Cadet Corps can contribute to maintaining discipline within the urban polling centres. 

Since overhauling the electoral system and political parties to realign with the new structure necessitates some time, the election date may be shifted to accommodate all these accordingly. To resolve the Conflict Trap, all the stakeholders must convene and collectively reach a mutually agreed-upon decision.

Saifur Rahman is a senior IT specialist and certified professional, Australian Computer Society.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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