The clock is ticking for the July Charter

The pressure is mounting for the National Consensus Commission to forge an agreement by July in the context of the chief adviser's announcement that the next general election may be held as early as mid-February provided there is satisfactory progress on other key fronts.

As the commission engages in discussions with 30 political parties, the people are watching closely—hopeful that this process will chart a new course for Bangladesh's democratic future.

The commission's goal is to prepare the national charter, or July Charter, a document that will outline reform proposals agreed upon by the parties. By signing the charter, political parties will pledge to the nation that they will implement these reforms.

There is widespread hope that this charter will serve as a magna carta for Bangladesh's transition away from autocracy, kleptocracy, the criminalisation of politics, and the dominance of businessmen in parliament. It is also seen as a response to the decay of democratic institutions, the suppression of press freedom, and the unchecked accumulation of wealth by politicians and their allies through corruption and capital flight.

Citizens aspire to see the charter lay the foundation for a new state system rooted in public ownership, accountability, and welfare, and to restore genuine democracy while preventing the return of authoritarianism.

The consensus commission, is expected to finalize the July Charter by next month in consultation with the parties. However, time is running short, and the challenge is steep in a country where political consensus has historically been elusive.

In the second round of discussions, which began on June 2, the commission has so far deliberated on nine issues and reached consensus in only two. The topics included Article 70 of the constitution, nomination of standing committee chairs, tenure of the prime minister, women's representation at parliament, bicameral legislature, appointment of the Chief Justice, fundamental principles of the constitution, method of electing the president and structure of the National Constitutional Council (NCC).

So far, the parties have agreed that lawmakers will be allowed to vote against party lines, except on no-confidence motions and finance bills. Opposition MPs will chair at least four key parliamentary standing committees.

However, a closer look at the dialogues reveals a critical gap. There is no declared yardstick for how 'consensus' is determined.

This became especially apparent when 27 political parties, excluding the BNP and two others, agreed that no individual should serve as prime minister for more than 10 years. Yet, this was not officially recognised as 'consensus'. In another example, the commission needed to revise their proposal changing the structure and functions of the proposed National Constitutional Council, because the BNP and like-minded parties were against the NCC provisions as originally proposed.

The reform commission recommended that this council would oversee appointments to the positions of chief adviser, attorney general, chiefs of the three defence forces, and other constitutional posts.

Parties that supported that proposal maintained that the NCC would help curb the excessive concentration of executive power in the hands of the prime minister.

The revised proposal renames the council as the Committee for Appointments to Constitutional and Statutory Bodies. As such, it will not have the authority to appoint the chief adviser of caretaker government, which still has to be decided upon.

In the coming days, the Commission will need to address over a dozen unresolved issues, including: the formation of caretaker government and procedure for amending the constitution, declaring a state of emergency

In a deeply divided political landscape, without a clear consensus mechanism, the commission risks repeated back-and-forth and delays in finalizing the much-needed July Charter—delays the country can ill afford if the next general election is to be held in February 2026.

The commission's discussions are open-ended, meaning they have no predetermined outcome.

The consensus commission can adopt a tiered consensus framework that defines thresholds for agreement on different types of issues to ensure clarity in its decision-making. For foundational reforms—such as constitutional amendments or the structure of the caretaker government or tenure of the PM, basic principles of the constitutions and others—the commission could require unanimous or near-unanimous support to reflect national unity.

For other significant but less foundational reforms, a supermajority threshold (such as two-thirds or 75% agreement among participating parties) could be deemed sufficient. Before taking this approach, the commission will of course need to have discussions with parties to select these tiers.

The commission could also prepare a shared working draft of the charter that is regularly updated based on feedback from parties. This way, all sides can see how proposals are evolving, which ones have support, and which ones are still disputed. Additionally, the commission could publicly list where each party stands on each issue, so that citizens can clearly see the areas of agreement and disagreement.

This would not only enhance accountability but also help the public understand the depth and breadth of political agreement. Establishing such a yardstick would prevent delays, reduce confusion, and strengthen the July Charter as a national compact.

Still, political parties must rise above partisanship and put the country first. They must work together to find outcomes that everyone can live with—solutions that serve the nation, not just the party or personal interests.

As Ali Riaz, who is also a political scientist, wrote once, a 2014 study by Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright, and Erica Frantz showed that only 41 percent of mass uprisings that ousted dictatorships after World War II were followed by democratisation.

Now the commission and political parties must be reasonable and work hard to make sure that Bangladesh does not fall into that 59 percent.