Bangladesh must shift from reaction to readiness to tackle climate hazards

As the world marks the International Day for Disaster Reduction today, the theme for this year—"Fund Resilience, Not Disasters"—should resonate most powerfully in Bangladesh. For us, this is not merely a slogan; it is both an economic and moral imperative. Positioned at the confluence of the mighty Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers, and facing the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is a textbook example of tropical synergy giving rise to chronic disaster vulnerability. Year after year, our people face a relentless assault from rapid-onset shocks, such as cyclones, landslides, storm surges, and devastating monsoon floods, alongside slow-onset threats such as drought, persistent heatwaves, severe river erosion, and debilitating salinity intrusion.

This continuous cycle of destruction carries a staggering price tag. Between 2000 and 2023, disasters in Bangladesh cost over $13.6 billion and affected more than 13 crore people. Yet, this figure only scratches the surface of the human cost. Save the Children reported that extreme heat forced the closure of schools in April 2024, impacting around 3.3 crore children in Bangladesh and over five million children were impacted by recent major floods and cyclones, per Unicef Annual Report 2024 report. The lost hope, interrupted education, and perpetual rebuilding represent a debt we cannot repay. Despite significant legal and institutional advancements, our current system remains dangerously skewed towards paying the post-disaster bill rather than preventing it.

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What's the issue with the old paradigm?

Bangladesh has made genuine progress in institutionalising disaster risk management. We have robust national policies in place, including the Disaster Management Act 2012, the Standing Order on Disaster (SOD) 2019, the National Plan for Disaster Management 2021-2025, and the recent National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2024. These documents lay the groundwork for a proactive approach, and subsequently, through the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) and relevant government bodies, national and district disaster management funds have already been established.

However, a critical loophole persists in practice, as highlighted by experts: most of these funds are still earmarked strictly for post-disaster relief and rehabilitation. District-level committees, which serve as the first line of defence, are often required to wait until the damage is visible and verified before they can access and mobilise funds.

This hesitation is rooted in a rigid, outdated fiscal system. Local officials, fearing accusations of misusing public money, are reluctant to spend funds in advance, especially as resources not used within the fiscal year are often required to be returned to the treasury. This creates a false economy, where the fear of "wasting" a few thousand taka on preparedness leads to spending millions on cleanup and recovery later. Such a system inadvertently incentivises reaction over readiness, contradicting the very spirit of "Fund Resilience, Not Disasters."

Forecast-based financing can be the game-changer

The antidote to this reaction-driven system is anticipatory action (AA), which systematically links early warnings to early financial action. AA is more than just common sense—it is sound fiscal policy. Evidence reviews indicate that anticipatory action can yield up to around $7 in avoided losses for every $1 invested in comparable contexts—though the ratio varies by hazard, country, and intervention. This includes reduced reliance on emergency aid, quicker infrastructure repair, and less need for long-term rehabilitation.

One of the critical mechanisms of anticipatory action is forecast-based financing (FbF). This is crucial for Bangladesh's current disaster management phase. FbF is an ex-ante financing mechanism that pre-approves and automatically allocates funding once a reliable forecast trigger is reached, allowing action before a disaster fully strikes. However, AA financing encompasses a range of instruments beyond FbF, including pre-arranged finance, regional risk pools, and multi-hazard insurance products—all designed to ensure that capital is immediately available when forecast thresholds are met.

Bangladesh has not merely discussed AA; it has pioneered its implementation across diverse risks. Collaborative efforts involving the FbF/A Taskforce, the Anticipatory Action Technical Working Group (AATWG), the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), and development partners have led to significant AA activations ahead of major hazards. For instance, anticipatory cash transfers have been successfully deployed via mobile money to coastal communities before cyclones like Remal and to riverine communities ahead of monsoon floods. Notably, development partners successfully activated an Early Action Protocol for heatwaves in Dhaka, providing cooling centres and emergency drinking water to vulnerable populations. For hazards such as landslides in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, AA is increasingly being integrated with high-resolution rainfall forecasts to support unconditional cash transfers and the dissemination of location-specific early warnings.

Furthermore, pilot projects addressing drought are using FbF to distribute climate-smart farming packages, such as drought-tolerant seeds, protecting agricultural livelihoods long before crop failure sets in. These funds enable vulnerable families to secure livestock, purchase essential food and water purification supplies, and physically safeguard their homes and documents, significantly reducing losses and protecting livelihoods.

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Empowering the local experts is crucial

The path forward requires bold administrative and political commitment. We must empower and trust our local authorities. The rigidity in fund allocation must be dismantled by issuing clear, centralised guidelines that allow district and upazila disaster management committees to spend pre-approved funds based on forecast thresholds provided by the BMD and the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC). This ensures that the technical expertise of the BMD and FFWC is immediately translated into decisive action on the ground.

Leveraging technology is equally vital. A real-time, transparent digital monitoring system for disaster fund management would build trust, reduce misuse, and, most importantly, provide decision-makers with instant evidence of where anticipatory spending proves most effective.

Another untapped opportunity lies in integrating AA with the country's vast network of social safety net programmes. By using existing beneficiary lists, we can deliver pre-approved cash transfers and targeted support—such as unconditional cash, multi-hazard insurance, dignity kits for women, or priority evacuation support for the elderly—directly to the most vulnerable households when a threat is imminent. This approach not only provides immediate relief but also protects the long-term development gains achieved through poverty reduction efforts.

Finally, the role of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and humanitarian partners is paramount. They often act as the implementers of last-mile delivery, bridging the gap between national policy and community needs. By partnering with the government on locally driven projects, they ensure that AA remains community-led. The people who live in high-risk areas are the true experts; when they are trusted and supported, their responses are faster and more appropriate, fostering a genuine sense of ownership and accountability. Addressing hazards such as landslides requires anticipatory funding to pre-position longer-term resilience assets—reinforcing vulnerable slopes, conducting awareness campaigns in high-risk villages, and pre-positioning emergency shelter materials well before the monsoon season.

The "no-regret principle" must become the standard. Strengthening flood shelters, pre-positioning relief supplies, or providing cash transfers are worthwhile investments even if the storm changes course. They bolster preparedness, reinforce public trust, and enhance day-to-day resilience.

Disaster management in Bangladesh should no longer be defined by the scale of the damage we endure but by the readiness we demonstrate. Shifting the funding balance—to spend more before disaster strikes, not merely after—is the ultimate way to honour the strength and resilience of our people. By embracing forecast-based financing, we can move decisively from coping to true resilience, ensuring that every taka spent is an investment in a safer, stronger future.

Mohammad Abu Toyab is a development professional. He can be reached at [email protected].

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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