In nearly eight decades of negotiating history between Israel and the Palestinians, the rule is enshrined that the weapon of the Palestinians' in the negotiations is their right and the paper that establishes it, and that Israel's weapon is the power of fire. In other words, we always find ourselves with the narrative that Israel is doing completely contrary to what was agreed, and that very dynamic also refers to the US, which is always accused of double standards; first, ensuring the interest of Israel in full, and second, ignoring rights for the Palestinians, which they claim to stand for, in engineering agreements throughout the years.

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Can life start again in Gaza?

The judgement in this equation is always power in all its military, economic and alliance components.

In all the agreements and understandings reached, Israel was exercising its commitment to them on the measure of the gains it has achieved for Israel, and the harm inflicted on the Palestinians by dispensing with them. Take for example, the Oslo Accords, signed in the White House and the aftermath that saw its promise utterly left unfulfilled for the rights of the Palestinians.

Palestine is at an immensely fragile position, where the ceasefire deal—a deal largely made by the US—could bring us back to square one. As widely known, the deal came in three stages: the first has advantages for both parties, and the second has more advantages for the Palestinians, in that it includes a more permanent withdrawal of Israeli troops and authorities' presence in Gaza, which they destroyed.

Israel's fascist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office came minutes after the first phase ended, and as talks have begun on starting the second phase that's aimed at ending the war and seeing all remaining living hostages in Gaza returned home, he issued a statement describing a US proposal—a ceasefire extension through Passover, or April 20. On the first day, half the hostages, alive and dead, would be released. The rest would be released if agreement is reached on a permanent ceasefire. The extension would provide Israel with its desired advantages to continue illegal occupation, and the fate of the second and third phases are becoming determined, according to the unequal equation based on Israeli military force, which, even if not exercised, remains threatening enough.

Since the beginning of the first phase, Israel has been thinking, planning and working on how to defer the second phase and continue to deprive the Palestinians of its advantages, benefiting from the fact that the exchange will reduce the pressure from the Netanyahu government to bring home the Israeli hostages, and neutralise the hate against them, while also benefiting from the time factor that gives it valuable opportunities to officially and actually abolish the second phase.

The Palestinians and Arabs can now admit that what is happening now is a lack of even the minimum balance that came from Washington—the American position under the Biden administration was characterised by a synthetic duality. Now, it is to unconditionally give Israel everything it needs and beyond more than the means of war, and giving the Palestinians in return—very limited drops of financial support to beat all the lingering traumas from the atrocities they have witnessed, and lived through. The Trump administration has unequivocally moved the already-lopsided equation between the US and Israel in another direction, as the US is no longer a mediator but rather a direct party by giving Israel an open mandate to do to the Palestinians whatever it wants.

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Palestine: A large Victorian workhouse?

Recent events in other parts of the world also indicate it could get much more frightening and worse for the Middle East. The kind of US government which staunchly supported Ukraine against Russian invasion, selectively following international law, is also vanishing from Washington. Ukrainian President Zelensky's humiliation in the White House should be understood as greater and deeper than being a verbal quarrel between two presidents. It established the beginning of a dangerous era in which the creditor is a master and the debtor is a slave. Countries, including the Arab states, who could also be candidates for similar insults—as would be Europe—have the actual potential to save themselves and their prestige before the axe falls on the head. It is incumbent upon nations that still have power against Donald Trump to act before things take a turn for the worse.

We are already witnessing a pattern of behaviour in what is happening about Gaza, where the stages of the agreed deal are slyly being turned into one stage—which is only to be extended until the recovery of all Israeli hostages, living and dead, and then we will see everything that had nothing to do with what is written on the paper. We have seen this game before: postponing the negotiations which save Trump's ally Netanyahu the precious time he needs to rearrange his cards in the Israeli political arena to remain in power. As long as the war continues, even in parallel with the temporary truce and exchange, Netanyahu will remain the ruler in Israel until the last day of his term, with renewed chances of reaching another term.

The papers of agreements and understandings from the beginning of the Palestinian cause to the present day, have been burning in all rounds of its right struggle with the Israeli fire, to enshrine an equation that says: "What can the ink, paper, signatures, mediators and witnesses do with the fire other than burning and turning into ashes?"

Yousef SY Ramadan is the ambassador of Palestine to Bangladesh.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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