Is Bangladesh on the right track?

If you go by the results of the latest survey by US-based International Republican Institute (IRI), you would think the country is on course, primarily as set by the ruling party chief and PM Sheikh Hasina. Politically, it implies a certain democratic deficit that we have to come to terms with someday. Economically, we are on a good footing, rather on a firm wicket, to use a spectacular cricketing phrase. 

You have seen some positive energy lately, radiating three-dimensionally: IRI's lively findings, withdrawal of VAT imposed on private universities and removal of indemnity against trials of those who passed off many a custodial killing as death from 'heart attack'. This happened in Operation Clean Heart during BNP rule. 

The first served as a barometer of public opinion on political weather, the second safeguarded higher education from commodity taxation and the third opened a window for victims of custodial deaths to seek justice in a particular case. 

One of the least said things about US-based International Republic and Institute (IRI)'s latest series of findings concerns shedding light in the circle of darkness. You have got some basis for understanding how public opinion has quietly changed in the last one and a half years of the AL's second term stalked by controversy from day one. By freeing us of the dull consistency of stock political observations, thanks to the IRI survey, we are put in a relatively comforting zone. 

A word about the credibility of the IRI survey. The reputed research organisation claims a margin of error not exceeding plus or minus two percent but confidence level at 95 percent. For all we know, the dependability of its surveys remains unassailed. 

Awami League waltzed to the statistical lyrics of an improving image to an extent that the parliament in a resolution congratulated the PM on favourable IRI survey ratings. 

An IRI survey between January 12 and 27, 2014, hot on the heels of the January 5 elections, showed only 35 percent of the people thought the country was headed towards the right direction; in September of the same year, 56 percent believed that the country was on the right track; and now 62 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction.

Support for the ruling government and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reached 66 percent and 67 percent respectively. 

BNP could, in theory, latch on support indicated (in the survey) in favour of pre-poll neutral caretaker arrangement and early election. But the preferential gaps are narrowing down between the parties even on those counts. 

"68 percent (up from last year's 65 percent) regard democracy definitely more important while only 27 percent, down from last year's 30 percent, choose a prosperous economy." 

The high watermark of the survey is that 81 percent of respondents keep faith in democracy despite its flaws. That being a very positive deduction, one feels, a quest for inclusive democracy, once timed-out, needs to be undertaken in good time. And time is all we have to be utilised optimally for maximising democracy and minimising conflict and tension across the board. 

In parallel, we energise and invigorate national economy primed on a global concept of growing together, despite shrinking spaces and fast depleting resources of the planet. 

As if to reinforce the argument for lending primacy to the economy even in politics, please note that we are the 35th largest economy among 189 economies by World Bank's reckonings. This ranking is based on purchasing power parity. It means with one dollar a Bangladeshi can buy more than an American or a British would. There is meat to our being a large economy: Our per capita annual income is around US$1300 and the size of our population 160 million which has a multiplier effect on our purchasing power parity. One of the downsides of a growing population is the difficulty in reducing innumeracy and illiteracy. The last literacy figure has slightly dropped from the previous level in the face of a rising population stripping away at the literacy drive. 

Our GDP is slightly below the 50th largest among the world economies. With consistent GDP growth rate above 6 percent, which again is poised for acceleration, we have modest incrementals (trickle downs) in terms of purchasing power and affording amenities among a greater mass of people. 

We are yet to strive meaningfully to attract, hold and employ three potential sources of capital lying in abundance but out of reach: Plug the holes of capital flight, tap in on the large high income groups in the country whose per capita income equals that of some East European countries. This is the high-end potential domestic market capable of garnering foreign investment, including on a collaboration basis waiting to be utilised. Then you have a complement of a 5 million Bangladeshi expatriate community to add to our potential resource base. 

We have maritime water territories equal to the size of another Bangladesh, a huge bonanza to capitalise on in every sense of the term to fast-track into a developed stage that is simply beckoning us. 

The writer is Associate Editor, The Daily Star.