Inflation may fall below 7% by June: govt

Inflation is expected to fall below 7 percent by June 2026, driven by the Bangladesh Bank's tight monetary policy and the government's austerity measures, the Chief Adviser's Office said yesterday.

Annual average inflation fell below 9 percent in November 2025 for the first time since June 2023, the CA's Office disclosed after a meeting on overall economic progress and budgetary expenditure, chaired by CA Muhammad Yunus at the state guest house Jamuna.

Point-to-point inflation, which crossed 9 percent in March 2023, dropped below that level in June 2025 and declined further to 8.29 percent in November this year, it added.

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud and Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur were present at the meeting.

The CA's Office acknowledged that real incomes had declined in recent years due to a wide gap between inflation and wage growth, but said the gap had narrowed significantly in recent months.

In November 2025, point-to-point inflation and wage growth stood at 8.29 percent and 8.04 percent, respectively, compared with 9.02 percent and 7.04 percent in fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23).

"As a result, although real income had declined in previous years due to high inflation, the current fiscal year is gradually witnessing an improvement," it said.

The CA's Office also said that due to proper incentives and management, Boro rice yields were good so far this year, and a favourable Aman harvest is expected. As a result, the government's foodgrain procurement target for the current fiscal year is likely to be achieved.

Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $32.57 billion, up from around $25 billion in August 2024.

"With exchange rates stabilising, remittance inflows increasing and interest rates in the financial sector rising significantly, foreign exchange reserves are expected to grow further," it said.

The office added that improved financial management and measures to prevent money laundering have strengthened the country's external account.

Restrictions on imports have been lifted to support more productive economic activity, it said, noting a rebound in imports.

Capital machinery imports, which had been in decline, have regained momentum in the current fiscal year 2025-26.