Govt forecasts inflation below 7% by next June

Inflation may fall below 7 percent by June 2026, owing to the tight monetary policy maintained by Bangladesh Bank and austerity measures in government expenditure, according to the Chief Adviser's Office today.

The CA office shared the projection with the media after a meeting on overall economic progress and budgetary expenditure chaired by Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus.

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud, and Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur were present at the meeting at the state guest house Jamuna.

The CA office said the annual average inflation fell below 9 percent in November 2025 for the first time since June 2023.

Point-to-point inflation, which crossed 9 percent in March 2023, also fell below 9 percent in June 2025.

It declined further to 8.29 percent in November this year.

It is expected that, as a result of contractionary monetary policy and austerity, inflation will fall below 7 percent by June 2026, it added.

The CA office also acknowledged people's reduced real income owing to the wide gap between inflation and wage growth, and added that the gap has narrowed significantly in recent months of the current fiscal year.

In November 2025, point-to-point inflation and wage growth stood at 8.29 percent and 8.04 percent, respectively, compared to 9.02 percent and 7.04 percent in FY 2022–23.

"As a result, although real income had declined in previous years due to high inflation, the current fiscal year is gradually witnessing improvement."

The CA office said that due to proper incentives and management, Boro yields this year have been good so far. A good yield of Aman rice is also expected.

As a result, the government's foodgrain procurement target for the current fiscal year is expected to be achieved, it added.

Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $32.57 billion, compared to around $25 billion in August 2024.

"With exchange rates stabilising, remittance inflows increasing, and interest rates in the financial sector rising significantly, foreign exchange reserves are expected to grow further in the future."

The CA office said that due to better financial management and prevention of money laundering, the country's external account situation has improved.

"To make economic development more productive, restrictions on imports have been lifted," it said, citing a rebound in imports.

Capital machinery imports, which had been in a downturn, regained pace during the current fiscal year.