GDP growth target may be revised down to 5.25%
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The GDP growth target may be brought down to 5.25 percent in the revised budget for the current fiscal year due to the damage caused by multiple floods and the interim government's contractionary monetary policy to contain high inflation.
The previous government had set the growth target at 6.75 percent in the original budget.
A discussion on the revised budget for the current fiscal year was held among top officials from the finance, commerce, and planning ministries, as well as Bangladesh Bank, at the Chief Adviser's Office on Tuesday, with Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus in the chair.
Finance ministry officials said they presented the current macroeconomic indicators and the revised budget during the meeting.
"The growth of the agriculture sector will decrease due to repeated floods at the beginning of the current fiscal year," said a finance ministry official.
Additionally, Bangladesh Bank introduced a tight monetary policy and raised the policy rate, reducing overall GDP growth, he added.
This comes as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have also lowered their GDP growth projections for Bangladesh for the current fiscal year.
The ADB has revised its growth forecast for Bangladesh to 5.1 percent from 6.6 percent, citing supply chain disruptions caused by political unrest in July and August.
The World Bank has slashed its growth forecast for the Bangladesh economy by 1.7 percentage points to 4 percent for the fiscal year 2024-25 due to "significant uncertainties following recent political turmoil" and "data unavailability."
The IMF has also revised the growth forecast for Bangladesh for this year, saying political uncertainty, industrial unrest, and floods continue to weigh heavily on economic activities.
In its flagship World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered Bangladesh's growth projection by 2.1 percentage points to 4.5 percent, the lowest since fiscal 2019-20, when the global coronavirus pandemic struck.
In a visit last December, an IMF delegation revised the growth to 3.8 percent.
The inflation target may rise to 8 percent, up from 6.5 percent in the original budget.
Although the latest data showed that inflation in Bangladesh eased for the second consecutive month in January to 9.94 percent, it remains high.
On Tuesday, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said the government was working on reducing inflation to 7 percent by June.
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