With acreage and output falling, is there any prospect for wheat in Bangladesh?
Bangladesh's wheat output has fallen to a five-year low in the fiscal year 2024-25 as acreage has fallen to the lowest on record amid farmers' gradual switch to maize, potato and other high-value crops.
Farmers harvested 10.41 lakh tonnes of the grain on 2.8 lakh hectares in last winter, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. This was the second consecutive year of a fall in acreage of wheat, which was grown on 8.8 lakh hectares in the fiscal year 1998-99, the highest in history.
Since then, the wheat area has been falling steadily amid farmers' shift to other crops that provide higher returns, raising questions whether there is any prospect of wheat seeing its expanded coverage and higher production.
Agriculturists said multiple factors -- lower profits than maize, potato and other high-value vegetables grown in winter, lack of improved varieties, the outbreak of wheat blast in 2016 and shorter duration of winter -- are responsible for the falling interest of farmers.
"Maize has almost become a cash crop. It is occupying the land where wheat was grown in the past," said Muhammad Rezaul Kabir, senior scientific officer at the Bangladesh Wheat and Maize Research Institute (BWMRI).
Agri-scientists said maize offers higher yields and profits than wheat. Farmers get 11-12 tonnes of maize per hectare, almost three times that of wheat and they get better prices due to demand for poultry, fish and livestock feed.
Areas where wheat is grown remain mainly because of the cropping pattern and weather suitability, he said.
In its Grain and Feed Update published at the end of March this year, the US Department of Agriculture said changing weather patterns are negatively affecting wheat production.
"Bangladesh is experiencing shorter winter seasons and relatively higher temperatures during the winter," it said.
AKM Aminul Islam, professor of Genetics & Plant Breeding at Gazipur Agricultural University, said the duration of winter is falling because of climate change.
"Farmers usually cultivate wheat in December, and the temperature rises during the flowering stage affecting yield. As a result, farmers get a lower return on investment," he said.
Data from the BBS showed that Bangladesh's annual average production has been 11 lakh tonnes in the last 17 years.
The USDA in its report said wheat blast disease, which reduces yields significantly, is one reason for stagnant production.
BWMRI scientists however said the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) has developed BARI Gom-33 which is blast resistant.
The variety is now cultivated on more than one-third of the area under wheat, said Kabir.
"It is a blast-resistant variety. So, farmers prefer this," he said adding that BARI Gom-32 is also grown extensively.
Hakim, also a former principal scientific officer at the BWMRI, said a modern wheat variety, BWMRI Gom-5, has higher yield potential.
"Also, we have already started working on developing hybrid wheat seeds with support from The University of Sydney. We are trying hard to bring more improved varieties with higher yield potential."
One of the main problems is uncertainty over prices and farmers' vulnerability to losses due to lower prices of imported wheat.
Bangladesh roughly requires 75 lakh tonnes of wheat for home and industrial use and most of the demand is met through imports.
Hakim said ample wheat becomes available in the international market when farmers here harvest their crop. Imported wheat creates price pressure on domestically grown grain.
"This is one reason behind farmers' interest in maize cultivation," he said.
Is there any prospect?
Hakim believes there is a prospect for wheat.
Maize faces disease attacks in recent times. Besides, there are complaints of a decline in micronutrients in the soil because of the cultivation of maize.
He said wheat cultivation is expanding in Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj and Naogaon districts due to water scarcity in these districts.
Hakim said the BWMRI has introduced a saline-tolerant wheat variety, BWMRI Gom-4, with a 5.5-tonne yield potential per hectare.
"Thousands of hectares of area remain fallow after the Aman harvest in the southern region. So, cultivation may increase there."
"We are working to make the seeds available there. If we can bring 2 lakh hectares of the southern region under wheat cultivation, overall production will rise."
"If so, our production will rise to 20 lakh tonnes," he said.
His colleague Kabir also believes this.
"Wheat has a prospect. Per unit yield is increasing because of the introduction of modern seeds and new technology," he said, citing that per hectare yield rose to 3.8 tonnes now from 2.16 tonnes by the end of the 1990s.
"We have introduced heat-tolerant varieties of wheat," he said.
To encourage farmers, he said, the government should fix the procurement price of wheat ahead of the harvesting of the grain.
"Farmers will get a fair price if the government declares a purchase price earlier," he said. "Profitable price must be ensured."
Naresh Chandra Deb Barma, former director general of BWMRI, said wheat is losing out to crop competition.
"We grew wheat on 8 lakh hectares and it means that this amount of area is suitable for the cultivation of the grain."
"During the good times of wheat, yield was low. Now, we have good varieties but acreage is falling and consumption of wheat is increasing," he said.
"What is needed is the government's patronage and policy support. Acreage and production will rise if there is government patronage. Otherwise, we will have to continue to depend heavily on imports at a time when demand is growing."
Prof Islam of Gazipur Agricultural University also thinks that there is a prospect for wheat.
"It is not possible for us to attain self-sufficiency in wheat. But if we can increase production, we will be able to save foreign currencies spent for the import of the grain."
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