Asia Cup 2025 final scenarios after Pakistan win

Pakistan's five-wicket win over Sri Lanka at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday has turned the Asia Cup Super Four battle into a tense equation, with all four teams still mathematically in contention for a place in the September 28 final.

With the victory, Pakistan climbed to two points from two matches, improving their net run rate (NRR) to +0.226. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, slumped to their second straight defeat and now sit bottom of the table with an NRR of -0.590, their hopes hanging by a thread.

India remain in pole position with two wins out of two and a healthy NRR of +0.689, and they need just one more victory from their remaining fixtures against Bangladesh today or Sri Lanka to secure a place in the final.

For Bangladesh, today's clash against India has become pivotal. They already have two points from their win against Sri Lanka, but must beat either India or Pakistan to realistically stay in the race. A win against India would not only lift them to four points but also give them a buffer ahead of their final match against Pakistan.

Sri Lanka face the toughest task. To qualify, the defending champions must beat India convincingly in their last game and hope that three teams finish tied on two points each, with NRR acting as the tiebreaker.

Pakistan, on the other hand, need to beat Bangladesh in their last game to remain in contention. Their path becomes clearer if India overcome Bangladesh, but a Bangladesh victory today would drag the race down to the final round of matches.

Several permutations are still possible. One scenario could see three teams -- India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan -- finishing with four points apiece, where net run rate would decide the finalists. Another could produce a three-way tie on two points if Sri Lanka upset India and other results go against the grain.

With margins and NRR likely to come into play, every remaining match has taken on knockout intensity. For Bangladesh, the equation is simple: beat India today to seize control of their destiny, or risk leaving qualification hopes to the final-day mathematics.