Will the upcoming election stabilise Bangladesh-India relations?
Bangladesh and India have once again engaged in a verbal exchange of "he said, she said". Last Wednesday, Bangladesh's Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain fired the latest round in response to Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri's comment on Bangladesh's upcoming national election, characterising it as "completely unwarranted."
Does this recent burst of comments and counter-comments indicate that things will heat up once again as the election approaches? The Indian foreign secretary, on October 6, said, "…India is firmly in favour of free, fair, inclusive and participatory elections in Bangladesh…" Such a remark is ironic and hypocritical, since India had remained silent on the state of democracy in Bangladesh for the 15 and a half years of uninterrupted Awami League rule, during which three questionable elections were held.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel. While the motive behind such remarks should be scrutinised, it is also necessary to take a fresh look at India's trade, economic, and diplomatic relationship with Bangladesh. In fact, this has become a vital component of the agenda for all political parties in the run-up to the elections. Leaders of the July uprising, who have been instrumental in creating a national consensus to reassert our identity, have been driving this objective domestically. Now, even the average man on the street notices the priority steering away from the "servile" perception that critics often attributed to the previous administration.
In June this year, the foreign adviser commented that the country's relationship with India needs to be rebalanced or readjusted. Since August 5, 2024, when the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took refuge in India, the interim administration and the nation at large criticised the Indian government for supporting the Awami League administration. In most cases, India's official response has been diplomatic, which can lead one to speculate that the neighbouring country is waiting for things to settle down after the elections.
For Bangladesh, the time has come to reassess our strategic priorities. The recent shift has been influenced by domestic political changes, a rise in anti-India sentiment, and unresolved bilateral issues. This has created the need for India to broaden its engagement beyond the political establishment and prioritise diplomacy on contentious topics such as water-sharing. However, it is not certain how much the dynamic can shift before the elections in February.
After the next elections, whichever party or coalition comes to power, it must announce a bold initiative and push the "reset button" with regard to India. Some of the areas where the governments of the two countries can collaborate have been discussed in the media. Bangladesh has sought India's backing to revive SAARC, and as the next chair of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), to broaden and strengthen our regional alliances.
The basic premise of our foreign policy is, and should be, that we need to maintain a good relationship with our powerful neighbour and move away from the year of bitterness caused by past mistakes. An economic and political rift with India since late 2024 has hurt Bangladesh through trade restrictions, diplomatic tension, and stalled connectivity projects. Bangladeshis justifiably believe that New Delhi bears collateral responsibility for sustaining Sheikh Hasina's rule.
During the readjustment phase, the diplomats of both countries must avoid incendiary rhetoric. In the coming years, some of the thorny areas at the central, state, and local levels will be transshipment, water management and sharing, and security and border management.
In this regard, I am highlighting the forthcoming negotiations on the water flows of Ganges and Teesta. A scholar at the National University of Singapore (NUS) has cautioned that the fate of the Ganges Water Treaty (GWT), to expire in 2026, is uncertain, and aptly called it "a two-level game" in view of Mamata Banerjee's warning to the centre. At one level, Bangladesh is playing the game with India, while at another level, Modi is sparring with Banerjee, West Bengal's chief minister, who opposes the treaty's renewal.
"The nature of any renewed GWT will therefore depend upon New Delhi's ability to negotiate both its triangular relationship with Bangladesh and China and the power balance between central government and West Bengal," wrote Amit Ranjan of NUS, in the latest issue of Asian Affairs in his article titled "A two-level game over the Ganges: The fate of Ganga/Ganges waters treaty between India and Bangladesh."
Bangladesh cannot fully implement the Teesta River management project and achieve its goals without India's participation, as the project's effectiveness depends on managing the Teesta River's flow from its upstream source, located in India. While China has expressed willingness to help finance and implement some aspects of the project, its efforts would be ineffective without an agreement with India on water sharing and release to ensure sufficient water availability.
In the past, our high commission in India has kowtowed to Indian officials in the South Block. Gone should be the days when our high commissioner, after a round of water sharing negotiations, declared, "What we have got not only met our expectation but exceeded our expectation," in a moment of delusion. Our civil servants, regardless of their portfolio, need a refresher course in level-headed diplomacy in avoiding sycophancy. Our leaders, too, need to put an end to hatred and the blame game.
In the near future, New Delhi, on its part, will hopefully realise that Bangladesh's continued economic development is in India's strategic interests, while any development on the political or electoral front is for Bangladesh alone to deal with.
Dr Abdullah Shibli is an economist working at a non-profit fiscal intermediary. He previously worked for the World Bank and Harvard University.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
Follow The Daily Star Opinion on Facebook for the latest opinions, commentaries, and analyses by experts and professionals. To contribute your article or letter to The Daily Star Opinion, see our guidelines for submission.
Comments