Global warming is winning while we are smiling

Although we have now surpassed the midpoint of 2025 and shortly we will reach the halfway mark of this decade, which is commonly recognised as the "make-or-break" decade for international climate initiatives, the signs from the climate system are more evident than ever. It is in decline because the main culprit of global warming—carbon dioxide emission—is on the rise. Notwithstanding the commitments and assurances made by governments of the world, global carbon dioxide emissions surged to an all-time high in 2024. Our planet is now on the verge of an irreversible climatic disaster as more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "extreme heat is breaking records worldwide." However, this ongoing trend of deadly heatwaves serves merely as an initial indication of far more severe conditions to come. Additionally, a peer-reviewed study, "State of the Climate," published by the American Meteorological Society, featuring contributions from numerous scientists globally, presents a range of climate metrics that achieved new records in 2024. This study offers one of the most thorough examinations of the various impacts of global warming, both on a global scale and regionally. Key findings include: "the global temperature across land and oceans, global sea level, and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2024, and glaciers experienced the greatest ice loss of any year on record."

Year 2024 was marked as the hottest year ever documented, with global temperatures averaging 1.52 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This figure is alarmingly near the 1.5 degrees threshold established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which scientists caution is a crucial tipping point for catastrophic climate consequences. These unprecedented temperatures act as a wake-up call, indicating that 2025 could be a pivotal year—one in which surpassing the 1.5 degrees limit may become the norm rather than the exception. By the end of this century, climate models predict that the global average temperature will be 3-5 degrees higher than it is now, thus turning our planet where no one would want to live.

Two sweltering heatwaves have battered Europe earlier this summer, leading to hundreds of fatalities linked to heat, igniting wildfires, and straining power systems to their maximum capacity. Temperatures surged past 40 degrees, reaching as high as 46 degrees in Spain and Portugal, due to heat domes—high-pressure systems that confine hot air in the atmosphere over a region, resulting in prolonged heat. Meanwhile, India experienced its longest and most oppressive heatwave on record, compelling millions to evacuate their residences.

As climate change drives global temperatures higher, glaciers, polar ice caps and ice sheets in Greenland and mountainous regions are melting faster than ever recorded. In early 2025, satellite observations by NASA revealed that Antarctic Ocean's ice reached its lowest level ever for the third year in a row. The situation in the Arctic is equally dire. This winter, the maximum extent of Arctic Ocean ice was noted to be the smallest since the inception of such records, and experts now predict that we may have our first ice-free summer in the Arctic as soon as the end of this decade.

Rising temperatures combined with melting of ice will cause the sea level to rise by 1.3-1.6 metres by the end of this century, with potentially devastating impacts on coastal communities and low-lying countries as Bangladesh. Satellites and tidal gauges show that the global sea level has risen by 21 to 24 centimetres over the past 140 years.

As per the United Nations Environment Programme, the frequency and severity of wildfires globally have increased twofold over the past twenty years. In the first four months of 2025, both Canada and Australia have documented their earliest and most extensive wildfires in history, with smoke travelling across continents and contaminating cities located thousands of miles away. Experts caution that incidents of more frequent mega-fires may become a lasting characteristic of the planet's evolving climate. As these wildfires emit billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, they exacerbate the challenge of reversing global warming, potentially leading us beyond a critical threshold of no return.

Extreme weather events have already increased in 2025, including devastating floods in Brazil, record-breaking droughts in East Africa, sudden hailstorms in Spain, and snow in the Sahara Desert. Frequency and intensity of these disasters are no longer considered uncommon or once-in-a-century occurrences; rather, they are now a yearly occurrence. In the United States, record-setting tornado outbreaks and extraordinary heatwaves have put immense pressure on emergency response systems.

Forests function as the lungs of our Earth, absorbing vast amounts of carbon dioxide. In 2024, the Amazon rainforest experienced a loss exceeding 4.5 million acres due to illegal logging, mining activities, and fires, as reported by the World Resources Institute. In Central Africa and Southeast Asia, the situation is equally severe. In addition to destroying important species habitats, deforestation also lowers the planet's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. Scientists warn that some rainforests may reach a critical point in 2025, when they start to release more carbon dioxide than they absorb if current trends continue. This disastrous move would impede the mitigation of climate change and hasten global warming.

Permafrost is a layer of soil and rock, with some extending 1,500 metres into the ground beneath the Arctic's frozen exterior. It is a significant source of methane and carbon dioxide. Methane's impact over a century is more than 25 times that of carbon dioxide, which makes it particularly worrisome. A 2025 study claims that greenhouse gases are being released into the atmosphere as a result of permafrost thawing faster than expected.

Unfortunately, even many nations are backtracking and watering down their pledges to combat climate change. Numerous countries among the 196 that are bound by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement are acting as if they are content with global warming.

When combined, the aforementioned ramifications of climate change provide compelling proof that humans have altered the climate in a way that will significantly change our planet not only in the far future but also during our own lifetimes, thereby giving our children and grandchildren the warmest climate that any generation of Homo sapiens has ever experienced.

Dr Quamrul Haider is professor emeritus at Fordham University in New York, US.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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