India’s election opens the door to the past

Defying predictions of pundits proffered for almost a year, opinion polls of the past months and exit polls over the past six weeks, the opposition alliance INDIA has done so well that the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fallen short of a clear majority, although the incumbent alliance NDA is holding on to more than 272 seats to form a government. The results and trend are evident that no single party has been able to secure a majority. As Modi's return to power for a third consecutive term breaks a record set six decades ago, it is also a return to a coalition era after a decade. In the previous two elections in 2014 and 2019, BJP had enough seats to form the government alone.

The conventional wisdom is that alliances are formed to be together to go to and stay in power. The NDA is no exception; the members of the alliance have remained together since 1998 and have been in power on several occasions since. In the past decade, despite BJP's enormous support among voters, its extraordinary mobilisation capacity, and the rise of Narendra Modi, NDA remained a key element in Indian politics. Since the poll results started to come in, what became a matter of speculation is whether some alliance members will ditch the NDA and join the opposition. In India, as elsewhere, that's not without precedence. Alliances, especially when a government's survival is dependent on it, tend to be more fragile. Horse-trading has been part and parcel of Indian politics; besides, as the BJP seems to have done poorly and voters have expressed a dismay regarding its politics, it is not out of the realm of possibility that some parties will try their fortune elsewhere. Two parties are being watched closely at the time of the writing of this commentary: Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh led by Chandrababu Naidu, and Janata Dal United of Bihar led by Nitish Kumar. While publicly the leaders have reaffirmed their allegiance to the NDA, politics is a game of unpredictability; tomorrow is another day.

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News Analysis: ‘A victory that feels like defeat’

If the opposition alliance INDIA can cobble together 272 seats, a coalition of disparate parties will end up in power. Press reports suggest that the alliance leaders are reaching out to parties who can only be described as "strange bedfellows." While it is speculation, or in some ways wishful thinking, such a scenario will be deja vu—a return to the 1990s. India witnessed a tumultuous time between May 1996 and October 1999 when coalition governments came and left in quick succession. The period is referred to as "the era of fragile coalition." In the context of a long history of stable Indian democracy, the instability during the 1990s was seen as deeply concerning. This period ended with the emergence of the BJP as a dominant party. It offered stability but over the past decade, such stability only contributed to serious democratic erosion and deep entrenchment of authoritarianism. It produced a leader who claimed that he had been chosen by God. It is in this context that if India returns to the 1990s' pluralistic political instability, that will be progress. Indeed, it sounds outlandish to suggest that going backwards is progress, but in the battle against authoritarianism, returning to a flawed democracy is a step forward. The election has created an opportunity.

Speculations aside, the unanticipated better results of the alliance INDIA has a message insofar as reversal of autocratisation around the world. In a democratic society, each political party has its own ideology, vision, strategy, and tactics; they compete, but when the democracy itself is at stake, they might have to compromise and build a wall of resistance. Waiting for a perfect solution to the democracy crisis and the emergence of a democratic force free of stains of past deeds will not only help authoritarianism to sustain, but will increasingly make citizens depoliticise. The Congress-led alliance INDIA is not an ideology-driven cohesive alliance. Some of the differences among these parties are significant; the past of some parties is chequered, to say the least. The partners of the alliance INDIA set their eyes on a goal: to stop autocratisation by offering an alternative to Modi's divisive policies.

If the opposition alliance INDIA can cobble together 272 seats, a coalition of disparate parties will end up in power. Press reports suggest that the alliance leaders are reaching out to parties who can only be described as "strange bedfellows." While it is speculation, or in some ways wishful thinking, such a scenario will be deja vu—a return to the 1990s. India witnessed a tumultuous time between May 1996 and October 1999 when coalition governments came and left in quick succession. The period is referred to as "the era of fragile coalition." In the context of a long history of stable Indian democracy, the instability during the 1990s was seen as deeply concerning.

While the alliance has not succeeded in winning the majority, it has emerged as a roadblock to the politics of divisiveness and hate. Faizabad's result is telling in this regard. The place, which became the symbol of BJP and ilk's rise due to the demolition of the mosque and the pompous inauguration of the Ram Mandir in January, has now delivered a defeat to the BJP. As for the alliance INDIA, bringing the parties together was a difficult task, holding each other together through the election was harder, but keeping the alliance intact in the coming days to fight for democracy will be the hardest.

The numbers of the final election results will be dissected in many ways. A more nuanced picture will emerge, and analysts and political scientists will try to explain the messages from Indian citizens. In the meantime, it is evident that a strong opposition in the parliament has emerged, and voters have expressed their desire to see a pluralistic polity in India, a past that defined the Indian polity and made it worthwhile to call the country "the largest democracy of the world."

Ali Riaz is distinguished professor of political science at Illinois State University, US and a non-resident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council. His recent publications are Pathways of Autocratization: The Tumultuous Journey of Bangladeshi Politics (Routledge, 2024) and The Charade: Bangladesh's 2024 Election (Prothoma, 2024).

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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