FOR more than 40 years, the earth has been sending distress signals. We have responded through staging processions, holding seminars, passing environmental laws and forging a few international treaties like the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.  All the while,   the decline of the earth's ecosystem has continued unabated, as evidenced by the monsoon and cyclonic storms like Sidr and Aila, and severe flash floods that continue to ravage Bangladesh's coastlines and different parts of the world.   

Global warming is now a grim reality. There is hot air aplenty mostly because of global warming, caused by a galloping increase in carbon emissions by uncaring nations, that has severely hit weather patterns across the world. As the next UN conference on climate scheduled to take place in Paris in December gets under way, the world appears a no better place than it was in1992, during the Rio meet. 

We have been hearing about the environmental problems projected to come to a head toward the middle of the century. But, as one born in 1939, I would surely be dead before 2050. As humans, we are in the habit of planning things – proper schooling, property, savings, insurance etc. for kids. While I became obsessed with such thinking, I realised with a jolt; my kids will reach my present age of 75 in say 2050. And their lives will depend on the state of the world at that time and not on our decisions about savings, property and insurance. Over the heads of our children now hang other threats from world conditions, different from the threats of 1939-45. 

While the risk or fear of a nuclear war or terrorist attack haunts us, it is not as acute as what is threatened by nature. The graver problems that could afflict all our children are environmental ones, such as global warming, land and water degradation. 

Why didn't those peoples in the earlier days see the problems developing around them and do something to avoid disaster? As President Obama said in the last climate conference in New York, "Our future generation will not forgive us for leaving an impoverished world for them."  One explanation for such failure is the conflict between short-term interests of those in power and the long-term interests of everybody. 

Global warming will also add significantly to earth's water problems. Already, around 1.4 billion people live in water- stressed areas, a term defined as having less than 1000 cubic metres of water per person per year. But by 2025, as the UN projections say, about 1.8 billion people will be living in counties or regions with absolute water scarcity. With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world's population will be living in areas of high water-stress by 2030. The situation will not only imperil human health and development on a vast scale but will also endanger aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems on which much of the earth's life depends. 

The growing scarcity of water is also hampering agricultural production, while demand for food is rising. A recent study revealed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that by 2050 as many as 150-200 million "environmental refugees" may have fled coastlines vulnerable to rising sea levels, storms or floods, while a sixth of Bangladesh could be permanently lost to sea-level rise and land subsidence.  

Water shortages may put the global food supplies in jeopardy and lead to economic stagnation in many areas, triggering a series of local and regional water crises and even water riots. During my visit to Satkhira and Khulna in the recent past, I saw, to my utter shock, that water in most of the ponds in and around Satkhira was just knee deep and had turned salty and totally blackish. This is because tube wells fail to yield as the water table is going down every year. 

Drinking water in and around Satkhira is sold in large containers. Almost six years after the cyclone Aila and a tidal surge hit the coastal belts of Satkhira, Bagerhat and Khulna, people still have no access to salt-free drinking water. The ponds need to be drained of saline water so that rainwater can be used for drinking purpose. The cyclone- induced storm surge brought saline water inland, and all the ponds and tube wells became unusable. Drinking water shortage has become very acute because PSF (pond sand filters), a common practice of getting drinking water in those areas, are not working because of inadequate rainfall. 

The prospect of Aman cultivation in this region still seems bleak because of salt deposit on the land. Thanks to Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), farmers in this region are now going for salt-tolerant BR 40 and 41 but the seeds are still in short supply. Unhappily, because of a lack of livelihood opportunities, many disgruntled people, who earlier depended on farming and fishing for a living, have migrated to other places. 

However despite all the odds that have made life in the coastal region miserable, there is still hope because of environmental awareness. Now efforts are underway to right some of the wrongs in most parts of the world. Unless immediate adaptation strategy is taken, these problems will prove critical in the coming days, as deteriorating soil conditions and changing climate put even more pressure on a badly-strained food supply system. 

If the nations of the world take immediate action, the pace of destruction of the global environment, no doubt, can be slowed substantially. Sooner or later, the earth's human inhabitants, so used to adapting the environment to suit their needs, will be forced to adapt themselves to the new demands.  

The question that invariably comes—how would societies respond, for example, if the oceans were to rise 3 to 4ft over the next century, as some scientists have predicted? One option would be to construct levees and dikes. The Netherlands, after all, has flourished more than 12 ft below sea level for hundreds of years. Its newest bulwark is 5.6 mile dam made up of 131 ft steel blocks that remain open during normal conditions to preserve the tidal flow that feeds the rich local sea life, but can be closed down during rough weather. 

Poorer countries like Bangladesh have fewer options. It cannot simply evacuate chars in the Ganges delta or coastline populations. Launching of such massive evacuation plan or resettlement in a land scarce country that involves forbiddingly high cost and expertise is a daunting task. Cyclone-resistant structures built at Shyamnagore on four concrete pillars 7 ft above the ground, with the funding of UNDP after the Aila attack might be a way to save people in times of severe natural calamities.    

The first step to an adaptation plan would be to opt for massive tree-planting in the whole country, especially in the coastal zones, because trees temper climate and capture and store water. Trees store 40% of terrestrial carbon and can slow the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Deforestation in mountains can worsen floods in grasslands below, as was the case in China, Madagascar, and more recently in Chittagong.  

We have hurt coastal and marine ecosystems directly by draining wetlands, cutting mangroves, trawling oceans for fish and destroying reefs and lagoons. Besides we also damage these ecosystems indirectly as rivers transport to the coasts the effluents of agriculture, industry and urban areas by logging and building dams. This interference with the ecosystem brings in its wake serious catastrophes. 

The sufferings of coastal people after Aila and Sidr amply demonstrate what sufferings and misfortune might be in store for us if we fail to adapt ourselves to changed climatic conditions. The affluent nations who are polluters must not only pledge but put in funds at the disposal of the affected countries like Bangladesh to tackle the aftermath of such disasters on a long term basis. 

The writer is a columnist of The Daily Star. 
e-mail : aukhandk@gmail.com