China's Foray Into Aviation - The sky is the limit

The Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (Comac) rolled out its first domestically built large passenger aircraft on November 2. Called the Comac C919, the airliner will have to undergo tests before its first flight takes off next year. 

Experts see the rollout as China's attempt to enter the booming global aviation industry and reduce dependence on Airbus and Boeing. Li Jiaxiang, the country's civil aviation chief, said, "China's air transport industry cannot completely rely on imports. A great nation must have its own large commercial aircraft." 

Air&Space magazine reports that the airliner boasts the most up-to-date technology and even its engines are the same as the ones used in Airbus' and Boeing's latest airplanes. Comac claims that they have already received an impressive order of more than 500 aircrafts from around 20 companies.  

This is undoubtedly a remarkable achievement for China. With the successful completion of the C919, the economic powerhouse continues to expand its high-end manufacturing sector and cut down its reliance on the production of cheap products as part of its economic restructuring. The Chinese government reportedly aims to make "strategic emerging industries" -- which include high-end equipment manufacturing -- account for 15 percent of the GDP by the year 2020. The C919 initiative, since its launch in 2008, has created 16 joint ventures in order to supply the different parts and systems for the airliner. For instance, Honeywell Aerospace, one of the world's largest manufacturers of aircraft engines and avionics, has two joint ventures in China with the aim to build the airliner's flight-control system, wheels and braking system. (Of course the C919 has had to rely on foreign companies as well). Ventures that were created specifically for the C919 are also catering to aircraft companies outside China.

Statistics show fast-growing markets for the aviation industry in the coming future and China is leading the pack in the projections. International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade association for the world's airlines, released a 20-year passenger growth forecast. It revealed that China is set to overtake the US as the fastest-increasing market by 2034. According to the passenger forecast, the top five fastest-growing markets by 2034 will be: China (856 million new passengers), the US (559 million), India (266 million), Indonesia (183 million) and Brazil (170 million). In this regard, Comac can hope to capitalise on the rising passenger market with ease. With such a massive domestic market, Comac probably doesn't even have to eye the international market in order to make profit. 

Although China has limited know-how in commercial aviation and nearly all of its experience lies within military aviation, the C919, which plans to enter airline service in 2018, could prove to be a much needed learning process that could boost China's confidence and ambitions in the airspace. China's Comac and Russia's United Aircraft Corp are already planning to work on a wide-body aircraft and are said to sign an accord by the end of this year (currently, Airbus and Boeing have a duopoly on the production of such aircrafts). According to Boeing estimates, in the next two decades there will be a need for more than 8,000 wide-body aircrafts worldwide, out of which demand in China alone will be around 1,500. Russia, with decades of experience in the aviation industry, can be a great partner in this regard. Furthermore, Russia and China plan to compete with Airbus and Boeing separately in the market for 100-seat-plus jetliners, the largest segment in the industry. 

Especially in light of the development of the C919, the role of aviation within China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy should not be overlooked as it probably won't be too long before aviation slowly enters the picture. Aviation will greatly help facilitate trade among nations in the OBOR region and boost the country's economic capacity. China plans to invest around 200 billion yuan ($32 billion) in civil aviation projects linked to OBOR, which is based on the land-based "Silk Road Economic Belt" (SREB) and ocean-going "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR). Just in the last two years, China built 15 new airports and expanded 28 existing ones. 24 of the 83 new air routes planned to be opened will also link cities within the country. President Xi Jinping admitted that aviation can be crucial in terms of speeding up the formation of OBOR as the infrastructure needed for aviation can be built faster and at a lower cost. 

Despite concerns of associated risks, China shows no signs of stopping. China's foray into aviation is ambitious and holds enormous potential to generate economic, cultural and employment opportunities. By banking on the increasing profitability of the aerospace industry, China seems all set to expand its global footprint and geostrategic influence in the region.   

The writer is a member of the editorial team, The Daily Star.