A quiet warning from the Barind

The northwestern region of Bangladesh has long been vulnerable to drought. Located within the Barind Tract, Rajshahi is characterised by low rainfall, high temperatures and a farming system heavily dependent on irrigation. What farmers have sensed for years that rainfall is declining has now been confirmed by long-term data. The evidence suggests that rainfall in Rajshahi is not only falling but doing so steadily, posing serious risks to agriculture, water security and rural livelihoods.

An analysis of annual rainfall data from 1990 to 2023 shows a statistically significant downward trend in Rajshahi. On average, the region is losing about 10.8 millimetres of rainfall each year. While this annual reduction may seem small, its cumulative impact over more than three decades is considerable. The slow but persistent decline is turning drought in the Barind from an occasional climatic shock into a structural, long-term challenge.

The first effects of declining rainfall appear as meteorological drought, marked by delayed, reduced or erratic rain. Over time, this develops into agricultural drought as soil moisture declines, sowing is delayed and crop growth is disrupted. In Rajshahi, where farming depends heavily on irrigation, particularly for Boro rice, lower rainfall directly increases pressure on groundwater resources.

This growing dependence on groundwater is already visible. In many areas, water must now be pumped from greater depths, raising irrigation costs through higher energy use and equipment expenses. For small and marginal farmers, these costs are becoming increasingly difficult to manage. If current trends continue, declining rainfall will not only reduce crop productivity but also undermine farm incomes and long-term food security.

Of course, drought itself is not new to the Barind. What is new is its persistence. In the past, droughts were episodic, severe in some years and less so in others. The current evidence points instead to a consistent long-term decline in rainfall. With high statistical confidence showing that the rate of change is clearly negative, this pattern can no longer be dismissed as random variability or a run of bad years. It is a clear warning of a changing climate.

This reality calls for a rethink of agricultural policy. Reactive measures, such as post-disaster relief and short-term compensation, are no longer enough. What is required is a proactive, forward-looking approach rooted in climate evidence.

First, crop planning must adjust to lower rainfall. Priority should be given to expanding drought-tolerant and short-duration crop varieties suited to Rajshahi agro-climatic conditions. Gradual diversification away from water-intensive systems, especially heavy reliance on irrigated rice, would reduce vulnerability and production risks.

Second, water management strategies must evolve. Reducing pressure on groundwater through rainwater harvesting, surface water storage and managed aquifer recharge is essential. Water-efficient irrigation practices, such as Alternate Wetting and Drying in rice cultivation, offer practical options that can cut water use without reducing yields.

Third, farmers need timely and reliable climate information. Stronger drought early warning systems and seasonal rainfall advisories can support better decisions on planting, irrigation and crop choice. Long-term rainfall trend analysis should be built into local agricultural planning and extension services.

Finally, climate-related risks must be addressed through social and financial protection. Crop insurance, adaptation grants and access to affordable credit can help farmers cope with rising uncertainty. Climate change may not be caused by farmers, but its impacts fall disproportionately on them.

The Barind region of Rajshahi is changing quietly. Rainfall is declining slowly, yet the consequences are building quickly. Decisions delayed today will mean higher costs tomorrow, in the form of lower yields, higher production expenses and growing livelihood insecurity.

The data sends a clear message. The question is whether policy responses will arrive in time.

The writer is an economics professor at Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University