The series of six earthquakes that shook Myanmar yesterday, occurring along the Sagaing fault -- the country's longest faultline -- served as a stark reminder of Dhaka's earthquake vulnerability.

Experts warn that without urgent preparatory measures, Dhaka, sitting atop an active seismic zone, faces catastrophic risks if a major quake strikes.

Experts say Bangladesh is one of the most tectonically active regions in the world. It sits where three tectonic plates -- the Indian Plate, the Eurasian Plate, and the Burmese Plate -- meet. The Indian Plate is moving northeast, slowly colliding with the Eurasian Plate.

The Sagaing fault is part of the Indo-Burma subduction zone, and Bangladesh also sits in it.

Yesterday's earthquakes, ranging from magnitude 4.5 to 7.7, damaged buildings across Myanmar and Thailand and reportedly killed nearly 150 people.

Read more

Don’t neglect the threat of a major earthquake

"It happened in the Indo-Burma subduction zone, where energy has been accumulating for more than 100 years, and we anticipate a strong earthquake of up to magnitude 9 could take place there," said Prof Syed Humanyun Akhter, an eminent geologist.

"If it happens, it would be catastrophic for Bangladesh," he said.

Bangladesh escaped unharmed from yesterday's tremors, as they originated on the Burma Plate, he added.

Md Rubayet Kabir, the acting officer of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department's Earthquake Observation and Research Centre, said that in recent years, they have observed many minor and major earthquakes occurring around Bangladesh -- in Nepal, Myanmar, and Tibet.

According to his research, in 2017, 28 earthquakes shook Bangladesh and its surroundings. In 2023, the number was 41, and in 2024, it increased to 54.

A number of tremors have been registered in the first quarter of this year.

"Our capacity to monitor earthquakes has increased in recent years. However, data shows that the frequency of earthquakes has also increased," he said.

He noted that very mild tremors occur regularly in this region. However, the worrying sign is that 550 earthquakes with a magnitude of four or above have struck within 300 km of Bangladesh in the past decade.

Experts say the pattern of these seismic events could be a warning sign of a major earthquake in a country with active faults like the Dauki fault in the Indo-Burma subduction zone.

Prof Mehedi Ahmed Ansary, a teacher at Buet's Civil Engineering Department, said the return period for a 7-magnitude earthquake is 125 to 175 years, and the return period for an 8-magnitude earthquake is 250 to 300 years.

Read more

What caused the powerful earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand?

The 8.5-magnitude Chittagong earthquake took place in 1762, the 7.5-magnitude Cachar earthquake occurred in 1869, the 7-magnitude Bengal earthquake struck in 1885, the great Indian 8.7 earthquake hit in 1897, the 7.6-magnitude Srimangal earthquake occurred in 1918, the 7.1-magnitude Durgapur earthquake hit in 1923, and the 7.1-magnitude Dhubri earthquake struck in 1930.

"So now we should be ready for a major quake," he said.

Dhaka is more vulnerable to earthquakes due to its geological location, as well as its human and economic exposure. According to the earthquake disaster risk index, the capital tops the list of the 20 most vulnerable cities in the world.