Donald Trump's return to power and his tariff policies are unlikely to create new export opportunities for Bangladesh, said Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). 

Instead, he cautioned that Bangladesh's export prospects could become "constrained and stagnant." 

He made the remarks at a press briefing at the CPD office in the capital today while discussing budget recommendations for the upcoming fiscal year. 

"There is an assumption that tariffs on China could benefit Bangladesh, as we are competitors in the US market," Rahman said. 

"However, after the US imposed a 25 percent tariff on China in 2016, our exports to the US initially declined, despite a rebound this year. So, I don't believe there is a direct benefit for us," he added. 

One key reason is that China's ready-made garment (RMG) exports to the US largely consist of man-made fibre garments, whereas Bangladesh mainly exports cotton-based products. 

"In the segment where China faces tariffs, Bangladesh does not directly compete with them. It is crucial to recognise the diversity within the RMG sector when analysing these trends," he said. 

Rahman further noted that various economists have pointed out how Trump's tariff war could negatively impact global economic growth, including that of the US. 

"A slowdown in US economic growth would reduce consumer demand and contribute to inflation, ultimately leading to a decline in overall import demand," he said. 

For export-dependent countries like Bangladesh, this could mean lower demand for products in the US market. 

"The ongoing global tariff war could have far-reaching adverse effects on growth. A potential decline in US economic expansion and demand could limit and even stagnate our export opportunities," he said. 

"We hope that ongoing discussions, including those between Canada and the US, will prevent the situation from worsening further. If it deteriorates, there will be no positive outcomes for the global economy or Bangladesh."