Remittance boom faces an AI test

Considering the core economic indicators of Bangladesh, remittance inflow has become the strongest factor at present, driven by a historic surge. Remittances crossed $30 billion in the last fiscal year 2024-25, helping to stabilise the exchange rate and bolster foreign currency reserves. The hard-earned money sent by millions of Bangladeshis working abroad, especially in the Middle East, the USA and the UK, has become one of the most dependable sources of foreign earnings for the country. Beneath this encouraging figure, however, lies a serious threat that is rarely discussed or addressed.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, is changing how we see the world and how it works. For a country like Bangladesh, where remittances largely come from blue-collar workers overseas, this transformation could become a major risk. As robots and AI move beyond manufacturing into construction, logistics and service sectors abroad, Bangladesh's blue-collar diaspora, long seen as the engine of foreign exchange inflows, could see its job base erode. That would leave remittance inflows vulnerable in the years ahead.

Researchers suggest that robotics and automation are set to displace jobs. The World Economic Forum "Future of Jobs 2025" report estimates that while AI and information technologies may create 11 million jobs globally, robotics and autonomous systems could lead to a net loss of five million jobs by 2030. The International Labour Organization (ILO) "Generative AI and Jobs" brief suggests that one in four jobs worldwide is at risk of transformation by generative AI alone. For Bangladesh, this is alarming. Many expatriate workers are employed in routine, repetitive or manual roles. If these roles shrink overseas, remittance flows will come under pressure unless the country rethinks its strategy now.

Immediate research is needed to avoid future shocks. A detailed study should assess occupational risks by mapping the jobs Bangladeshi migrant workers currently hold abroad, such as construction, services, warehousing and logistics, and estimating how exposed each is to automation and robotics. Based on these findings, an early warning system should be created. If key sectors abroad begin automating rapidly, policymakers must know quickly that labour demand from those channels may fall.

At the same time, emphasis should shift from unskilled labour to skilled and semi-skilled workers with future-proof capabilities. Migration pathways linked to robotics maintenance, facility automation support and AI-augmented services should be prioritised. This requires government-funded or subsidised training programmes, ideally in partnership with destination countries, to teach digital skills, automation interfaces and human-robot collaboration. If Bangladeshi workers can move from purely manual roles into human and machine functions, the future of remittances can still be protected.

The government should also negotiate bilateral labour migration agreements that focus on emerging service sectors such as caregiving, elderly care, specialised maintenance and smart facility operations, where robotic assistance is less likely to replace humans. Alongside this, investment is needed in automation-resilient domestic sectors, including high-end services, the digital economy, green technology, robot maintenance and AI support industries. Freelancing must be diversified in both geography and skill mix. This offers real potential to earn foreign income while remaining in Bangladesh. Over time, remittance strength will depend increasingly on export performance, making it essential to reduce over-reliance on garments and broaden the export base.

Remittances have long been a source of hope, lifting families out of poverty, transforming villages and strengthening foreign reserves. Hope alone, however, cannot secure the future. The world ahead will value skill over strength, adaptability over endurance and knowledge over effort. If Bangladesh acts now by investing in education, digital skills and smarter migration, this challenge can become an opportunity. Machines may be rising, but with foresight and resolve, the country can protect and even strengthen its foreign reserves.

The writer is a senior banker