Rohingya influx: 8 years on, repatriation still elusive

While all past attempts to repatriate the Rohingyas since 2017 have failed, the Arakan Army's (AA) sweeping control of Rakhine State has further complicated matters for Bangladesh.

Since late 2023, two lakh more Rohingyas have arrived, joining the million-plus already in Cox's Bazar. In January, funding cuts by a major US donor increased the strain on the interim government.

"We are facing challenges on multiple fronts for reasons that aren't our responsibility," Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman told this correspondent.

"If this continues, there will be serious humanitarian and security-related consequences."

Meanwhile, Rohingya leaders said hundreds were gathering in border areas across Teknaf amid clashes between the AA and other armed groups, raising the spectre of another influx.

REPATRIATION ATTEMPTS

Since the repatriation deal was signed with Myanmar in November 2017, Bangladesh tried but failed to send Rohingyas back. China then stepped in as mediator.

After the trilateral move slowed during the Covid-19 pandemic, another attempt at the end of 2023 fell through as fighting between the Myanmar military and AA intensified.

"Earlier, the Myanmar military was against the Rohingyas and now the Arakan Army is against us," said Saiful, a Rohingya youth in Cox's Bazar's Kutupalong camp.

With the AA now controlling most of Rakhine State, Myanmar's military has halted supplies, creating shortages and forcing more Rohingyas to flee.

On August 23, Rohingya leader Mohammad Zubair said, "Many Rohingyas have gathered in Laldia … People are trying to flee before horrors are repeated …. There could be another large-scale influx into Bangladesh."

A foreign ministry official said, "Repatriation at this point is impossible due to security concerns in Rakhine. But we're trying to find different ways to do it."

Rohingyas say the situation is not conducive and there is no guarantee of safety or citizenship.

A Chinese embassy official in Dhaka said China tried to mediate but the Myanmar military and AA are now refusing dialogue. "We're waiting for a ceasefire."

DHAKA'S DIPLOMATIC DILEMMA

Since the 2021 military coup, much of Myanmar has fallen under rebel control, including the AA in Rakhine.

Bangladesh must maintain relations with the junta while also keeping ties with the AA for border security, said National Security Adviser Dr Khalilur Rahman.

A UN official said this leaves Dhaka in a dilemma -- needing AA for repatriation but the junta as Myanmar's recognised authority.

Analysts warned that engaging with the AA could be seen as recognising a non-state actor, straining ties with Naypyidaw. They added Bangladesh must also watch how China and India position themselves.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmedi, executive director of Center for Alternatives, said one does not need to follow track-1 diplomacy. "If needed, you must follow tracks two and three."

Track-1 diplomacy is formal government engagement; Track-2 involves non-state actors like academics or NGOs; Track-3, or citizen diplomacy, takes place at the grassroots level.

SECURITY CONCERNS RISE, AID DWINDLES

Meanwhile, only $338 million, or 36 percent, of the required $934 million funding has been received for 2025-26 amid US cuts.

Several hundred UN and NGO staff and over 1,100 host community teachers have already lost jobs.

Unicef Representative Rana Flowers said education for Rohingya children has been compromised, while health, nutrition and protection will also be affected.

RRRC Mizanur said locals who once welcomed Rohingyas are now agitated as refugees work outside camps, hurting jobs and wages. He warned crimes such as drug and human trafficking, already rampant, will rise if funds keep shrinking.

Meanwhile, with clashes between the AA and junta spilling across the border, Border Guard Bangladesh has stepped up patrols.

JUSTICE ELUSIVE

UN investigators described atrocities against Rohingyas as "genocide", and The Gambia in 2019 filed a case with the International Court of Justice, which ordered Myanmar to prevent further acts.

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court prosecutor requested an arrest warrant against Myanmar's Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing. The request is still pending.

"It is unfortunate that the ICC has yet to issue an arrest warrant against the junta leader. Justice is totally elusive for the Rohingyas," said Rezaul Karim Chowdhury, executive director of COAST Foundation.

Tun Khin, president of Burmese Rohingya Organization UK, said the Myanmar military committed genocide in 2017 and the AA is now massacring Rohingyas despite the ICJ order. "This is a complete failure of the international community."

Bangladesh is meanwhile trying to engage the global community. Ahead of the UN conference in New York in September, it is organising a stakeholder dialogue in Cox's Bazar.

Apart from China, India and Japan, it is also reaching out to ASEAN. During Chief Adviser Prof Yunus's recent visit, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said his government will send an ASEAN peace mission to Myanmar.

At a recent press briefing, National Security Advisor Khalilur had said, "We want an urgent, permanent solution…How long can we keep them with international aid? They have to return home."