Trouble on the high seas

THE South China Sea has seen its share of troubles over the decades. What has changed of late is the emergence of the "dashed line" demarcation by the Chinese (PRC) which overlaps many territorial claims by other Asian countries in the neighbourhood. It has led to heightened tensions and boats have been rammed and sunk to prove to others that there's a new sheriff in town. Unfortunately, it has led to a new arms race in the region that is just getting off the ground. New alliances are being forged. A reticent nation led by pacifists for decades is seriously rethinking changing the constitution to give the military more teeth and more bite to challenge the self-proclaimed sheriff in town.

It is interesting to note that today India has a prime minister who understands the country's defence needs. Indeed, the move by India to procure state-of-the-art Japanese Soryu submarines has policymakers in Beijing worried. These boats are considered to be serious silent killers, technologically far ahead of what the Russians and Chinese have fielded so far. There is talk of off-set deals, technology transfer and joint projects, not just with the Japanese but with the West. It is not without reason that India is embarking on an ambitious indigenous defence industry to build and equip its armed forces to meet external threats. And it is not India alone which is rattled. Vietnam has just inked a deal to procure six diesel-electric submarines from Russia along with other assorted military hardware.

As per a US State Department study released in 2014, China's explanation on the "dashed-line" concept is based more on nationalistic claims than on international laws that have governed conduct in international waters. The PRC position is clear as day: "China has indisputable sovereignty over the islands over the islands in the South China Sea and adjacent waters, and enjoys sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the relevant waters as well as the seabed and subsoil thereof." Regardless of the legality of such claims and what is permitted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the PRC is moving full speed ahead with its new island building scheme in the South China Sea. Satellite imagery has confirmed that the PRC is indeed building an artificial island in the Spratly island chain and this activity has been going on over the last 18 months. 

As pointed out by HIS Jane's, "a systematic programme of island building across many of the reefs in the Spratlys that China already controls. The most significant land building was on Fiery Cross Reef, which is shaping up to be the site for China's first airstrip in the Spratly islands; a move that would give Beijing parity with Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Fiery Cross Reef, which lies to the west of the main Spratly archipelago, was previously under water. Its only habitable area was a concrete platform built and maintained by China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The new island -- first seen in November 2014 -- is more than 3,000 m long and between 200 m and 300 m wide: large enough to construct a runway and apron. Imagery captured on Januaray 8, 2015 showed significant progress. The new island has been joined up to the extant platform on the reef's south-western edge, which has been home to a PLAN garrison and had a pier, air-defence guns, anti-frogman defences, communications equipment, and a green house."

From what is now a verified fact, PRC is establishing a forward base in the South China Sea to lay claims to whatever territory it deems to be within its area of control, or conversely which it feels belongs to the PRC -- rightly or wrongly. Such measures are being closely watched and reciprocated. Vietnam, for instance, has embarked on an expansion of Southwest Cay. This includes a harbour and coastal defences. For its part, Taiwan built an airstrip in 2007 on one of the largest islands in the Spratlys (known as Iti Aba or Taiping) and is in the process of constructing a harbour with the purposes of improving patrolling and resupply options.

Asean nations find themselves caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, PRC's tactics are both unpalatable and unacceptable since they encroach onto territorial claims of many of its members. That PRC has shown little interest in a UN-brokered mediation merely adds to the problem. There is little or no possibility of tackling the PRC militarily. Furthermore, China is heavily involved in Asean countries in terms of direct investment -- the Philippines, for instance, has been promised in 2014 economic assistance to the tune of $500 – 700 million from Beijing. This is in addition to the $10 billion in foreign direct investment to the country. This is much needed financial largesse that countries like the Philippines and other Asean member countries need to keep the wheels of the economy rolling in the right direction.

Yet, at the end of the day, nations like Vietnam, Japan, and Republic of Korea are taking steps to bolster their defensive and offensive capabilities in the unlikely event that hostilities do break out. That scenario seems highly unlikely, but it is one that is forcing nations in the Asian region to rethink foreign policy in a whole different light. A new arms race in the midst of a global recession hardly seems logical, but it is happening and whilst the great arms merchants of the world light up their Havanas in glee, nations -- both great and small -- continue to dance to a dangerous tune on troubled waters. 

The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Star.