Iran's re-entry to the comity of nations

The 35-year standoff between America and Iran seems to be over. After nearly 12 years of difficult negotiations, P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany) and Iran have achieved the much hyped breakthrough in Vienna on July 14, 2015 after signing the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.  The plan has effectively curbed Iran's nuclear programme from developing nuclear device, in exchange for lifting debilitating economic sanctions imposed by the UN, the US and Europe. 

The 159-page document goes into minutest details on what Iran and the world powers are expected to do. Basically, for the next 15 years, Iran's enrichment of uranium has been curtailed and its uranium stockpile slashed, while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have unlimited access to all nuclear facilities, including mines and mills. The Damocles sword hanging over Iran is a sanction snap-back provision, if Iran is found busting the deal.

For its part P5+1 will move a UNSC resolution endorsing the deal and terminate all sanctions. A joint commission will be created, comprising P5+1, EU and Iran to monitor the implementation of the deal.

The deal has raised hopes, doubts and alarm among stakeholders. Now that the negotiation phase is over, a new phase of politicking has begun in earnest in America and the Middle East. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have expressed strong resentment to the deal. There is a flurry of meetings between the foreign ministers of world powers and their Israeli and Middle Eastern counterparts. 

President Obama will have a difficult time selling the deal to the Republican-dominated Congress. Republican leaders denounced it, even before reading the document. They accuse Obama for "managing" Iran's nuclear programme rather than totally "dismantling" it. 

The US Congress has 60 days to review the agreement. During that time, President Obama cannot lift the sanctions. If Congress rejects the deal and keeps the sanctions, Obama can veto the decision. In that event, the US Congress will need a two-third majority to overturn the president's veto, which is unlikely to happen.

Already some of the Republican presidential candidates have threatened to reject the deal if elected to the White House. Clearly, this deal will be a leading issue for the candidates in the run-up to the elections in November 2016. 

Surprisingly, Republican leaders, while deriding the deal, did not come up with any alternative solution on how Iran's nuclear programme could be curtailed. The alternative is bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. That is war against Iran that a majority of Americans are averse to. However, the Republicans feel that they have a responsibility to protect Israel from Iranian threats. 

For President Obama, it is a victory of one of the main tenets of his foreign policy which produced tangible results. Instead of opting for war, dialogue must be given a chance, even with America's enemies. Normalising relations with Cuba is another case in point.

"No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. The deal is not built on trust, it is built on verification….This deal will have my name on it," said Obama. Indeed, it will be the legacy of Nobel Peace laureate Obama's foreign policy.

The strongest reaction came from Israel's Prime Minster Benyamin Netanyahu, when he castigated the deal as a "stunning historic mistake." His discourse on Iran contained the same old invectives against the country. In his scathing attack, Netanyahu remarked that with the sanction-released-funds Iran will fuel its "terror machine".  Netanyahu declared, "Israel is not bound by this deal . . . We will always defend ourselves." Even though he often threatens to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, it is impossible without US help. 

Having failed to deter Obama from making this deal, Netanyahu will now certainly lean on the Republicans in Congress and try to convince them to reject the agreement. However, Israel will find it extremely difficult to have the deal overturned as other major powers are involved. The Obama administration made it clear to Tel Aviv that American Middle East (ME) policy will not be determined by Israel. 

What is significant is the shift in American ME policy is a rapprochement with Iran. Saudi Arabia, a key American ally in the region, is alarmed at the development. Sunni Saudi Arabia has been at odds with Shia Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Clearly, Washington needs Iran to stabilise the Shia regime in Baghdad, and also to defeat Sunni ISIL. Surely, the deal will make the Shia-Sunni proxy-wars more intense. One wonders whether Washington will try a similar deal with Syria.

The political dynamics in Iran will be worth watching. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has congratulated the Iranian delegation for their "tireless efforts". For now, the hardline Ayatollahs are on the backfoot.

President Hassan Rouhani told Iranians that "all our objectives" have been met by the deal. Rouhani went on to reiterate that "Iran will never seek a nuclear weapon, with or without the implementation" of the Vienna deal. 

People in Iran, tired of economic sanctions, were euphoric when news of the deal broke. The Iranian delegation returning from Vienna was given a rousing welcome at Tehran airport. Once Iranian oil starts flowing freely, world oil prices will come down, which is good news for all. Oil revenues will create thriving business opportunities. Western companies and financial institutions have already started jostling to enter the potentially lucrative Iranian economy.

Having failed at regime change, the West imposed sanctions to compel Tehran to come to the table and negotiate. Iran patiently and steadfastly negotiated with the world powers and agreed to scale down its nuclear programme for 15 years. 

Now that the world powers have recognised Iran's right to have a nuclear programme, it is unlikely that Iran will risk violating the deal, thus inviting the re-imposition of sanctions. However, the devil lies in the details of the deal. 

Iran was outside the mainstream of world affairs for the past four decades. The deal has enabled it to shake off its pariah status. 

The ambassador is former ambassador and secretary.