Why GP profits dropped but Robi posted gain in 2025

Grameenphone, the country’s top telecom operator, saw both turnover and profit decline in 2025, while rival Robi Axiata recorded growth on both counts.

According to financial reports of the companies, GP’s turnover fell 0.2 percent year-on-year, and its profit dropped 18.6 percent. Robi, by contrast, grew turnover by 0.4 percent and profit by 33.3 percent.

The divergence was driven largely by movement in subscriber numbers. GP’s total subscriber base slipped 0.5 percent to 8.39 crore at year-end, while Robi’s active subscriber base rose 1.2 percent to 5.74 crore.

GP officials attributed part of the subscriber decline to a regulatory change in the fourth quarter, when the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission reduced the permitted number of SIMs per national identity card from 15 to 10. As a result, customers holding more than 10 SIMs had to deactivate the excess connections.

The move resulted in the deregistration of approximately one million subscribers, said Tanveer Mohammed, the GP’s chief corporate affairs officer.

“As GP is the highest subscriber market shareholder in the industry — around 45 percent as of 2025 — it is natural that the impact of this regulation was more pronounced on the company,” he noted in a written response to The Daily Star, adding that demand was steady in the first three quarters.

At year-end, the leading telecom operator had 4.87 crore internet users, representing 58 percent of its total subscriber base, of whom 4.46 crore were on 4G.

Robi, the second biggest mobile operator in the country, counted 4.45 crore active internet users, 77.5 percent of its subscriber base, with 3.99 crore on 4G.

When subscriber base increases and their spending rises, it ultimately improves turnover of a company and brings profits. When user number falls, profit also falls.

Robi, in its report, stated that its subscriber growth reflects gradual market stabilisation following earlier SIM rationalisation, while internet subscribers grew at a faster pace of 4.3 percent, demonstrating continued strength in data customer acquisition.

Spending patterns also diverged. GP’s average revenue per user (ARPU) fell to Tk 151 from Tk 155 in 2024, weighed down by lower contributions from data and voice services, according to its report.

Robi’s ARPU, meanwhile, rose 2.5 percent to Tk 145.8 in 2025 from Tk 142 in 2024, driven by stronger data contribution and subscriber mix improvement.

GP’s Tanveer said persistent inflationary pressure and cautious consumer spending had impacted usage, leading to lower monetisation.

He, however, added that GP, with a more mature and higher-value subscriber base, has historically maintained a strong ARPU benchmark, and that short-term fluctuations can occur when the company prioritises customer retention and affordability over aggressive price-led monetisation.

“GP continues to focus on sustainable value creation through network quality, digital services, and responsible pricing, rather than short-term ARPU optimisation,” he said.

Voice usage fell at both operators, though more steeply at the bigger company. GP’s average minutes per user (AMPU) dropped 7.8 percent to 162 minutes, compared with a 5.9 percent decline at Robi to 141 minutes.

Tanveer attributed the trend to a migration of voice traffic toward over-the-top (OTT) platforms and more cautious usage patterns as consumers adjusted spending amid inflationary pressures.

Variations across operators may therefore reflect differences in market positioning, base effects, and strategic priorities, rather than underlying demand trends alone, he pointed out.

He said the company introduced targeted changes to its service offerings to encourage higher usage, and while these did not immediately lift voice consumption, they provided insights into evolving customer behaviour.

“We subsequently recalibrated our offerings using a data-driven approach and are now seeing early signs of stabilisation,” said the GP official.

As a market leader, GP continues to drive shifts toward more balanced, digital-first consumption. Such transitions may create short-term pressure on traditional metrics like AMPU but are essential for sustaining long-term growth and expanding overall connectivity usage, he added.

Explaining the contrast between GP and Robi’s growth, Kazi Monirul Islam, CEO of Shanta Asset Management, said, “Robi’s revenue is driven more by data services, and data usage across the overall market is also growing faster, while growth in voice services is declining. As a result, their turnover has increased.”

He added that Robi’s profitability has remained low relative to its turnover, whereas GP’s profit is significantly higher. Meaning,  a modest improvement in Robi’s operational efficiency can naturally lead to a substantial increase in its profit.

“At present, Robi’s profit is about one-third of GP’s earnings. In that sense, it can be argued that Robi’s profitability had actually remained quite low for a long time,” said Islam.

Despite the decline, GP continues to lead on key financial metrics. Its profit margin stood at 18.7 percent against Robi’s 9.4 percent, return on equity was 49 percent against Robi’s 13.5 percent, and net asset value per share was Tk 41.49 against Tk 13.34 for Robi.