Awami League's decision to not compete for two of the recently vacated seats, rather letting its allies vie for them, is aimed at strengthening its relations with partners ahead of the 12th national election, slated for January 2024.

On the other hand, AL's decision to not give the party symbol to anyone competing in the upcoming Brahmanbaria-2 by-polls is an effort to keep the main opposition, Jatiya Party, in its fold, according to AL insiders.

AL's parliamentary board on Sunday decided to leave two seats -- Thakurgaon-3 and Bogura-4 -- for Workers Party and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD-Inu), respectively.

In the last election held in 2008, AL left Thakurgaon-3 for Workers Party, Bogura-4 for JSD-Inu, and Brahmanbaria-2 for Jatiya Party, but BNP won those seats.

As AL is trying to expand its alliance by taking pro-liberation political forces on board, the party's latest decision is to satisfy its alliance and electoral partners. The ruling party is now working on its relations with its partners, belonging to the 14-party alliance, and has already sat with them several times. It is also closely maintaining relations with Jatiya Party.

The ruling party has decided to contest for three of the six seats that remain vacant since the recent resignation of BNP lawmakers. The election of those six seats will be held on February 1.

On December 11, a day after BNP's rally in Dhaka, seven BNP MPs, one from reserved seat, tendered their resignation letters to the JS speaker as part of their party's anti-government movement. And so, six seats -- Brahmanbaria-2, Thakurgaon-3, Bogura-4, Bogura-6, Chapainawabganj-2 and Chapainawabganj-3 -- were vacated.

Awami League's decision came after Workers Party and JSD wrote letters to the ruling party to sacrifice those two seats for them.

According to insiders, as AL is trying to expand its alliance by taking pro-liberation political forces on board, the party's latest decision is to satisfy its alliance and electoral partners.

The ruling party is now working on its relations with its partners, belonging to the 14-party alliance, and has already sat with them several times. It is also closely maintaining relations with Jatiya Party, said sources.

AL took part in the 2008, 2014 and 2018 elections under the banner of the 14-party alliance, which was treated as AL's ideological alliance. Besides, Jatiya Party was an electoral partner of AL in those elections.

When AL formed the government in 2009, Jatiya Party became the main opposition in the House, while AL ignored its partners. But leaders of the allies were inducted into the government formed in 2009 and 2014, they said.

A gap started forming between partners of the 14-party alliance and Awami League. This gap has widened day by day due to AL ignoring its partners.

This friction was exposed on December 8, when AL convened a meeting with its partners. The ruling party drew heavy flak from its left-leaning allies for ignoring them while taking crucial political decisions and for starting "electioneering" for the next national polls by keeping its partners in the dark.

Leaders of the leftist parties told AL leaders that they are disappointed, as the ruling party does not give them space in the government nor give the alliance much importance.

On the other hand, relations between AL and JP have lately strained, as the former believes JP Chairman GM Quader has reached an understanding with BNP leaders about a simultaneous anti-government movement, sources said.

Things appeared to have soured when several JP leaders started talking about "government misrule" a few months ago and last month. GM Quader said his party does not belong to any alliance with AL.

Under such circumstances, the ruling party started trying to strengthen relations with its partners.

AL President Sheikh Hasina, also the prime minister, held a meeting with two top leaders of Jatiya Party, while top leaders of AL had several meetings with its left-leaning partners.

Talking to the Daily Star, a top leader of Workers Party, wishing anonymity, said, "As Awami League decided to participate in the next election under the banner of the 14-party alliance, the ruling party is trying to satisfy partners and the latest decision shows that."

"We will wage movements and participate in the election together," AL veteran leader Amir Hossain Amu, also coordinator of the 14-party alliance, told The Daily Star.

He brushed aside claims of the widening gap between AL and its partners.

The next parliamentary election will be held in time in a festive atmosphere, Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader said yesterday.

Those who failed to depoliticise the country during 1/11 are the ones who are saying that elections would not be held, the minister added.

Quader, also the general secretary of ruling Awami League, said this in response to a query by journalists while he was speaking at the inaugural programme of Janmashtami procession in Dhaka's Palashi area.

“The next parliamentary session will be the last and after this no parliament member will have any official power. There is no question regarding this,” said Quader, who was the chief guest at the rally.

Quader also warned the Hindu community not to get trapped in the attempt to create communal polarisation in the name of national unity.

He further reminded the Hindu community of the 2001 period when “BNP-led communal forces came into power” and said the situation will be worse if they come back to power.

Dhaka South City Corporation Mayor Sayeed Khokon inaugurated the Janmasthami procession. Among others, Dhaka Metropolitan Police Commissioner Asaduzzaman Mia, Bangladesh Puja Udjapan Parishad President Milon Kanti Datta, and its General Secretary Nirmal Kumar Chatterjee also spoke at the programme.

Azmat Ullah Khan's defeat to a 62-year-old woman with no political background has dealt the Awami League a major blow, sending a message to the ruling party about rifts in its grassroots.

The surprise win of Zaida Khatun, the mother of suspended Gazipur mayor Zahangir Alam, in Gazipur City Corporation election has caught many AL high-ups off guard because the party exerted all its strength to ensure Azmat's victory.

Several central leaders believe Gazipur city election has demonstrated how internal feuds can lead to defeat even in a city known as the party's citadel. They also think the party should spend some time for self-reflection and learn a lesson from this election before moving forward.

AL's election loss in Gazipur, which along with Faridpur and Kishoreganj is known as an AL bastion, also shows the state of the party's popularity just seven months before the national polls.

Read more

AL loses in its bastion

The central leaders think the time has come to focus on the organisation itself and to bring discipline within the party through resolving the feuds before the general election.

The AL formed a 28-member committee of central leaders to coordinate the election campaign in Gazipur. But the committee members had not done enough, allege several leaders.

Read more

3 reasons why Zaida won Gazipur polls

As a political party, the AL is an expert in setting election strategies that work, they say, adding that no other political party can even come close in terms of organising.

But during different elections over the last 14 years, administration officials and law enforcers played a vital role in securing victory for the AL, party insiders say.

That's why the AL leaders took the victory in Gazipur city election for granted and didn't put in much effort.

In October last year, the role of government officials was brought to question by Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman who told a meeting with deputy commissioners and superintendents of police that many officials were not acting impartially while discharging their duties.

Gazipur election result is a fitting answer to AL's overconfidence.

— A central leader of the party

"Gazipur election result is a fitting answer to the party's overconfidence. It assumed an easy victory and failed to keep in mind the people's anti-government and anti-Awami League sentiments," a central leader of the party told The Daily Star, wishing anonymity.

The rifts and feuding groups are present in almost every district committee of the AL, he added.

However, AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader at an event yesterday said Gazipur election was free and fair, and it was a victory of democracy.

That the government can hold a free and fair election has been proven, he told a discussion at the AL office on Bangabandhu Avenue in the capital.

Read more

The message from Gazipur city polls

According to insiders, the AL leadership has been so busy running the government since 2009 that the organisation itself ceased to be a priority.

The AL faced a setback in the 2021 union parishad elections, thanks to internal feuds and disgruntled local leaders running as independents.

But no serious steps were taken to unite the party afterwards, the insiders say.

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Nothing but AL’s pride at stake

In Gazipur, the first mistake the AL leaders made was to assume that the local administration and police would support the ruling party nominee.

Besides, they didn't take Zahangir and his mother seriously enough. They thought the local activists would not maintain their relations with Zahangir after his permanent expulsion from the AL. They also assumed that the local activists would work together for the AL nominee.

But in reality, many grassroots leaders worked for Zaida Khatun in secret, said the sources.

Many AL leaders from Gazipur say that some of the BNP supporters had voted for Zaida while others voted for her simply because of their anti-government sentiments.

After the ruling AL chose Azmat to run for mayor, Zahangir collected nomination papers for himself and his mother to participate in the election as independents. As the Election Commission scrapped his nomination papers, he started campaigning for his mother Zaida.     

In 2013, Zahangir tried to run for mayor but the AL chose Azmat, who ended up losing to BNP's MA Mannan.

Zahangir tried to run as an independent, but quit the race only a few days before that election day. Since the ballot papers could not be changed at the last minute, his electoral symbol remained on them. Eventually, almost 30,000 people voted for him, which according to analysts was a major reason why Azmat lost that election.

The BNP has virtually been sidelined in its Lakshmipur stronghold while its rival Awami League's campaigning has been going on in full swing.

Posters and campaigning by the Jatiya Oikyafront, the alliance of which the BNP is a component, can hardly be seen anywhere in the four constituencies of the district.

During a recent visit, The Daily Star spoke to 40 voters in Lakshmipur-3 and Lakshmipur-1 and talked to sources in the other two.

“The scenario is quite unusual. An eerie calm is prevailing. We fear violence in the days ahead,” said 45-year old Mohammad Harun, a rickshaw puller of Sadar upazila under Lakshmipur-3.

“The district is a base of the BNP, but the party is cornered,” said another local at a tea stall.

Their fears seem logical as BNP leaders have said they would take to the street on polls day to stop “vote rigging”.

Since 1991, the BNP bagged all the seats in the district, except once (Lakshmipur-4 in 1996). The BNP did not take part in the 2014 polls.

Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal Chief ASM Abdur Rab, who defeated the BNP candidate in 1996, is running this year as a candidate of the Jatiya Oikyafront.

Rezaul Karim Liton, general secretary of the district Jubo Dal, alleged that voters were being intimidated and that they were not being allowed to hang posters.

“Whenever our activists try to campaign, our loud speakers are taken away by force. All these are spreading a sense of panic among voters,” he said.

“We will guard the polling centre, whatever the situation becomes.”

On Monday, Abu Taher, former general secretary of AL district unit and also the mayor of Lakshmipur municipality, threatened voters of dire consequence if they did not vote for “boat”.

"Cast your votes properly. I will be at the chairman post for two and a half more years. The roads will be dug up at night and the drains will be destroyed," Taher said at an election rally in the area in front of 200-250 people.

Civil Aviation and Tourism Minister AKM Shahjahan Kamal is running with the AL ticket against BNP Publicity Affairs Secretary Shaheed Uddin Chowdhury Annie in Lakshmipur-3.

This correspondent saw Annie's posters in some areas of Lakshmipur-3 but posters of Oikyafront candidate and Liberal Democratic Party leader Shahadat Hossain Selim was hardly seen in Lakshmipur-1.

Numerous posters of the boat symbol were seen on roads and in rural markets in both constituencies.

Talking to The Daily Star, some local BNP leaders in Lakshmipur-1 said they cannot stay home at night as police often carries out raids.

"Police have openly taken the side of 'boat'. They have asked several of my campaigners to leave the areas, threatening to shoot them in the leg otherwise," Oikyafront candidate Shahadat Hossain Selim told The Daily Star. 

"I have submitted six to seven complaints to the returning officer but they did not take any action," he added.

He alleged that AL men attacked his village home in Karpara area but police did not take any step to arrest the attackers.

Shafiq Mahmud Pintu, president of Ramganj upazila unit AL, said he did not hear about any incident of attack or violence in the upazila.

Contacted, Tota Mia, officer-in-charge of Ramganj Police Station under Lakshmipur-1, said the allegation against the police was baseless.

"There is a good election atmosphere here and all candidates are campaigning."