Ifs and buts: Tigers’ Super Four fate hangs in balance

Bangladesh opener Tanzid Hasan Tamim had just appeared in the post-match press conference after playing a match-winning knock of 52 off 31 balls in the Tigers' narrow eight-run victory against Afghanistan in an Asia Cup Group B encounter in Abu Dhabi yesterday. When asked about the qualification scenario, he replied with a smile: "The game just ended. Haven't looked yet, will have to check."

It was a do-or-die clash for Bangladesh, and Litton Das and his teammates managed to keep their tournament hopes alive with a thrilling victory. But despite the relief of staying in contention, Bangladesh's progression to the next round still depends on several 'ifs' and 'buts.'

In Group B, Bangladesh currently sit second with four points from all their matches, carrying a net run rate of -0.270. Sri Lanka lead the table with four points from two games and a healthy net run rate of +1.546. Afghanistan, meanwhile, are in third with two points and the best run rate of the lot at +2.150.

This means all three teams are still in the race for the Super Four. For Bangladesh, the simplest scenario is a Sri Lanka win. If the Lankans beat Afghanistan in their group's final match, Bangladesh will join them in the next round. But if Afghanistan win, things get complicated.

Given their superior net run rate, Afghanistan will qualify for the Super Four with any margin of victory against Sri Lanka. For Bangladesh to sneak through alongside Afghanistan, Rashid Khan's men would need a massive win. Specifically, if Afghanistan bat first and beat Sri Lanka by 65 runs or more, Bangladesh will qualify on net run rate despite their negative tally.

If Afghanistan chase, however, the equation gets trickier. Bangladesh's only hope then would be if Afghanistan reach the target with 50 balls to spare, as that would push Sri Lanka below the Tigers in net run rate.

Having done their part with the bat and ball, the Tigers can now only wait and watch. Should the permutations fall in their favour, Bangladesh will progress as Group B runners-up, setting up all their Super Four fixtures at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. For now, though, they will travel to Dubai from Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. But certainly their hearts and minds will remain at the Zayed Cricket Stadium -- where Group B's fate will be sealed on September 18.