Vive la Revolution… again?
In what is looking like the most shocking election result so far this year, the French left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NPF) emerged victorious, winning 182 seats in the National Assembly. NPF was formed after the elections were called—consisting of the Socialist Party, Greens and France Unbowed led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. French President Emmanuel Macron called the snap election in response to a humiliating defeat in the elections for the European Parliament to Marine Le-Pen's far-right National Rally (RN). The RN's dominant performance, winning nearly twice as many seats as Macron's centrist party, prompted Macron to dissolve the parliament—a gamble that could have been disastrous for the president who still has three years left on his term.
Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance took 163 seats, while the far-right RN and its allies came in third—with only 143 seats. Although all coalitions failed to reach the 289 seat threshold for an absolute majority, the results was a shocking turnaround of the first round results, where the National Rally and its allies took 33.1 percent of the votes and were expected to win 230-280 seats. Pollster Ipsos projected at the time that Macron could end up with 70-100 seats, while NPF was projected to win 125-165. The dramatic reversal in the second round—although it did not result in Ensemble's victory—proved that Macron's gamble paid off as it managed to hold off RN and its leader Jordan Bardella.
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Bardella claimed that his party was only defeated because of the formation of an "alliance of dishonour" between the NPF and Ensemble. Bardella was referring to tactical withdrawals made by both NPF and Ensemble in order to concentrate votes against RN in "triangular" or three-way runoffs. This, along with the record high turnout, was essentially what made RN's defeat possible, as the left-wing alliance and Macron's centrist coalition came together to beat Le Pen's nationalists by giving up seats to whoever had the better chance of winning. "I threw my live grenade at their feet," is how President Macron reportedly saw the move. Macron's grenade may have worked, but the shrapnel it left is everywhere.
Firstly, although RN didn't do as well as was expected given their performance during the European Parliament elections and polls, they did win more seats this time than ever before. For comparison, they only won eight seats in 2017 and 89 seats just two years back. With Marine Le Pen and her party consistently improving their performance, the far-right in France has been far from defeated.
Furthermore, the only common factor uniting the NFP alliance is their disdain for RN and the far-right. Not only is the alliance brand new, it is difficult to see what its members agree on, as the alliance consists of everything from centre-left to communists. Right after the victory was announced, each member of the NFP celebrated separately, although all acknowledged that the win was a result of a joint effort. The predecessor to the NFP alliance which was formed in 2022, called NUPES, was also led by Melenchon, but fell apart due to political and personal differences.
The leader of the alliance and its largest party, Melenchon himself has been a divisive figure. In his three decade long political career, he previously proposed scrapping nuclear power, taxing the rich 100 percent on income over 400,000 euros and reducing the working week to 32 hours. He has been accused of being antisemitic by the French PM Attal and has been a vocal critic of the Israeli military's actions in Gaza and promised to "immediately" recognise the Palestinian state in addition to sanctioning Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel. This vocal support for Palestine was a major driving factor behind his popularity among the youth of France.
Overall, NFP's total economic programme, including its other promises such as housing subsidies and raising the minimum wage, will cost £126 billion. Economists have warned that this will be too expensive for France and put them at odds with the European Commission—which has already opened an excessive deficit procedure against them. For them to follow through on any of this, however, as they have failed to reach an absolute majority, will require the formation of a coalition in order to pass legislation—which is not something the French are used to. As a matter of fact, Charles de Gaulle devised the Fifth Republic's constitution to deliver clear majorities and avoid such issues. Furthermore, the constitution also hands the power to appoint a prime minister solely to the president.
The current PM Gabriel Attal's resignation was declined by President Macron, and for now he will remain in charge. The choice of France's future prime minister is not just exclusively in the hands of the president, but France also has no criteria for choosing one. He is only bound by political custom and not any laws to choose the bloc with the highest number of seats to try and form a government. Even if NFP was to form a minority government, with the leader most likely being Melenchon or even Francois Ruffin, its sustainability would be questionable as it would be under constant threat of no-confidence votes.
President Macron will most likely hold out until a majority coalition is formed, which is likely why Attal's resignation was declined. However, Macron's supporters have already ruled out forming a coalition with the hard-left party of Melenchon. Center-right and Macron ally Edouard Philippe, "favor[s] the creation of an agreement" that excludes both the far-right and the far-left. In a potential deadlock, a way out could be the appointment of a technocratic government. This would mean appointing ministers, usually civil servants or technocrats, with no party affiliation to manage regular governance matters. This is a system that neighbouring Italy has seen many times—notably run by Mario Draghi in 2021. But as is expected, it is difficult for such a government to sustain itself without any electoral legitimacy and often results in public dissatisfaction. Such was the case leading to the massive victory of the populist Five Star movement in Italy.
Nevertheless, RN's defeat was met with joy around Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X: "In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw." With the German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck saying he was "thoroughly relieved". This was echoed by the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez who praised voters in France and Britain for rejecting the far-right.
Mahadev Ghosh is an independent researcher based in the UK.
Views expressed in this article are the author's own.
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