Overhaul Met Office’s warning system

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) reliance on a broadly outdated forecasting system, introduced around the time of the country’s independence, is concerning. This is especially true in light of the recent heavy rainfall that has claimed several lives across the country and severely disrupted daily life for millions. While it is encouraging that the BMD has recognised its shortcomings and has begun reviewing rainfall classifications, we strongly recommend that the process be expedited so that a better response framework can replace the existing one.

As reported by this daily, under the current classification system, daily average rainfall of one to 10 millimetres (mm) is classified as light, 11 to 22 mm as moderate, 23 to 43 mm as moderately heavy, 44 to 88 mm as heavy, and anything beyond 88 mm is categorised as very heavy. So, when a city receives some 97 mm of rain, as Dhaka did earlier this month, or when the city recorded a 54-year-high daily rainfall of 196 mm of rainfall in a single day in May last year—both fell under the “very heavy” category. Such broad categorisation is often misleading and downplays the severity of impending extreme weather events, making it harder for both the public and policymakers to accurately assess the true level of risk, thereby dangerously undermining preparedness activities.

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One way this could be addressed is by implementing impact-based, colour-coded warnings, which are already active in different parts of the world, including neighbouring India. Such warning systems could be instrumental in deploying swift response action, which can play an important role in reducing the number of casualties and structural damage. This is evident in the success of Bangladesh’s cyclone response system, where swift, coordinated, and well-communicated government action has helped reduce cyclone-related deaths from hundreds of thousands to single digits over the last 50 years.   Encouragingly, the BMD has taken several initiatives recently to improve its forecasting infrastructure. For instance, its newly launched website features a colour-coded risk matrix that is based on the Common Alert Protocol. The revamped site also provides sector-specific warnings for aviation, agriculture, and maritime operations along with upazila-specific forecasts. However, to truly build public trust in the forecasting system, the BMD must replace its old rainfall classifications with ones that communicate better with the public. Experts have also called for seasonal and long-range forecasting through year-round monitoring of climate drivers; this could be essential for allowing authorities to prepare well before hazards become imminent. We urge the authorities to prioritise these reforms and not treat them as a mere technical change, but as an investment in public safety.