As Bangladesh heads into 2025, it leaves behind a tumultuous year of colossal human loss that also saw the fall of oppression and the sparkle of a new dawn. Now, with resilience and cautious optimism, the nation ushers in the New Year, marking a pivotal chapter in its history.

To many, this feels like a rare breath of possibility -- a chance to rewrite the story of a nation that endured so much in July and August. The atrocities of the past regime left deep scars, but out of that pain was born something powerful: a united, unyielding vow to roll back the dark legacy of the autocratic rule.

That's why calls for reform are no longer whispers on the sidelines -- they are a clarion call resonating across society. The recommendations from six reform commissions, already in progress, are poised to serve as the foundation for future transformations. However, this moment demands visible and decisive action from interim leader Muhammad Yunus and his team. The machinery of government -- from the police to the bureaucracy -- must be reformed, if not rebuilt, to withstand the test of time.

Expectations weigh heavily on Yunus and his colleagues. Their path is riddled with obstacles: simmering grievances, deep political divides, and a system burdened by the oppressive legacy of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year rule. Yunus's vision is bold, even audacious, but it will be judged against the harsh realities of governance more acutely in 2025. Then there are lingering echoes of vengeance and retribution that threaten to overshadow his aspirations.

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

For some, 2025 offers a fresh slate -- a chance to transcend political conflicts rooted in Hasina's rule and embrace a new, inclusive chapter. For others, it raises pressing questions: Will the political landscape stabilise, or will tensions deepen?

Can the BNP, a key political voice, rise above the entrenched culture of vengeance that has long defined the nation's politics? If the BNP hopes to lead the country towards a more stable and inclusive future, it must break free from the past government's toxic legacy and chart a new course. Rising above the politics of retribution is no easy task, particularly when grievances run deep and old wounds remain unhealed. However, the BNP has an opportunity to lead by example.

So far, the BNP has stepped forward with a voice of reason during a tumultuous time, firmly opposing the removal of Bangladesh's President Mohammed Shahabuddin from office and any move to ban political parties. In doing so, it positioned itself as a stabilising force, acting as a bulwark against the rising tide of mob justice and chaos.

To lay down its vision for the future, the BNP has submitted a comprehensive set of recommendations to the Constitution Reform Commission. It proposed constitutional reforms to foster democratic governance. One key recommendation is the introduction of a bicameral parliament to ensure broader representation in state governance. To prevent the concentration of power and promote democratic leadership transitions, the BNP proposed amending the constitution to restrict any individual from serving as prime minister for more than two consecutive terms. The BNP calls for a recalibration of executive powers to enhance the system of checks and balances.

Price hikes of basic necessities, including rice, wheat, and edible oil, placed a significant strain on household budgets, exacerbating poverty and inequality.

— Deen Islam, associate professor of economics at DU

New year celebrations in Dhaka. Photo: Rashed Shumon/Star

DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PATH

The year 2025 stands poised between optimism and caution, marked by contrasts. Politically, it promises high drama and significant turning points with a national election on the horizon. Economically, the path is far more difficult.

The business and investment climate faces uncertainty and peril. Political transition often brings instability, and for the private sector, this could dampen confidence and growth. Inflationary pressures, a lingering energy crisis, and shrinking global demand for key exports, such as garments, create a challenging environment for local businesses. Foreign investors, wary of instability, are likely to adopt a cautious approach as they assess the interim government's progress on law and order.

Can the government revive the economy amid global and domestic uncertainties? And how will businesses navigate a precarious environment, marred by the breakdown of law and order?

For the poorest and most vulnerable in Bangladesh, 2024 was a year of unrelenting hardship. The sharp rise in the cost of essential goods -- food, fuel, and other daily staples -- hit those with fragile finances the hardest, according to economists.

"Price hikes of basic necessities, including rice, wheat, and edible oil, placed a significant strain on household budgets, exacerbating poverty and inequality," said Deen Islam, associate professor of economics at Dhaka University.

Then came the floods. Two deluges swept through key agricultural regions, decimating crops, upending livelihoods, and plunging local food systems into crisis. For millions, the year wasn't just marked by rising costs but by the gnawing fear that tomorrow might bring even less.

Looking ahead to 2025, global market trends suggest that the prices of essential commodities are likely to rise further, driven by supply chain disruptions and climatic challenges.

"To prevent a deepening crisis, the interim government must adopt proactive policies to safeguard the food supply and protect vulnerable populations," Deen Islam said.

The past year will go down in history as a period of tests exposing deep economic wounds, data manipulation, and the unravelling of a carefully constructed facade of development. The recently released White Paper reveals the full extent of the economic damage caused by years of mismanagement, corruption, and systemic flaws. Manipulated data, lax financial oversight, reckless macroeconomic policies, and the plundering of public funds have inflicted deep wounds on the economy -- far deeper than previously suspected.

What was once hailed as a global success story has been unmasked as a fragile facade, built on unstable foundations. At the heart of the problem lies a grim truth: years of unchecked corruption, abuse of public resources, and a kleptocratic culture prioritising personal gain over public good. This legacy has weakened institutions and battered the economy.

While the challenges of 2024 exposed the vulnerabilities in Bangladesh's economic framework, they also provided an opportunity for transformative change. By prioritising the welfare of its most vulnerable citizens and addressing structural weaknesses, Bangladesh can emerge stronger and more prepared for future economic uncertainties.

NATIONAL CONSENSUS

In a bold move, Yunus announced the formation of six reform commissions in September to address some of the nation's toughest challenges. These commissions aim to reform the judiciary, overhaul the electoral system, strengthen state administration, restructure the police, root out corruption, and revise the constitution. Their recommendations are expected in January. Dialogues with political parties will follow, setting the stage for reforms.

Perhaps the greatest challenge will be the rebuilding of the nation's institutions, systematically hollowed out during Hasina's tenure. Under her leadership, independence was sacrificed for subservience, and institutions were moulded to serve party interests rather than public needs. Rebuilding these pillars of governance requires not only structural changes but also a profound moral reckoning.

Adding to this ambitious agenda, Yunus has established a commission aimed at forging a national consensus. This commission seeks to bridge the deep divides fracturing Bangladeshi society and politics, fostering dialogue among parties to chart a shared vision for the nation's future -- a vision rooted in unity rather than division.

For Yunus, the stakes are high. Success in building consensus could transform the fragile optimism of 2025 into a genuine turning point. Failure, however, risks reinforcing the cycle of missed opportunities. In a country scarred by political vengeance and distrust, this effort may be the most delicate -- and decisive -- of all.

The successful completion of a national election by the end of 2025 or early 2026 could mark a significant turning point. An election would signal a return to democratic processes, fostering political stability and restoring confidence across the economy. Stability is crucial for economic performance, as prolonged uncertainty deters investment, stalls growth and erodes public trust.

"In the long run, a democratically elected political government can foster a good business and investment environment in Bangladesh by implementing some of the reforms recommended by the interim government," said Zaved Akhtar, president of the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The task ahead is monumental. Undoing the damage requires systemic reforms, transparency, accountability, and a renewed trust in governance.