BNP leads with 33% support, Jamaat close behind with 29%: IRI survey

If national elections were held next week, 33 percent of respondents said they would vote for BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami followed with around 29 percent, according to a survey released on Monday by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI).

IRI's Center for Insights in Survey Research also predicted that six percent would vote for the National Citizen Party, five percent for Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and four percent for the Jatiya Party.

The study reported that 11 percent of respondents refused to answer, seven percent said they did not know, and two percent stated they would not vote. The survey further revealed that 41 percent strongly support the suspension of Awami League's registration, while 28 percent somewhat support it. In contrast, 16 percent strongly oppose the suspension, and 11 percent oppose it to some extent.

Enthusiasm for the upcoming election appears high. Of the 4,985 adult respondents, 66 percent said they are very likely to vote, while 23 percent reported being somewhat likely to participate. Furthermore, 80 percent expressed optimism that the elections will be free and fair, according to IRI's statement. At the same time, 67 percent of respondents said past elections were rigged.

The latest national survey, conducted between September and October across 63 districts, also found that 72 percent of respondents believe the condition of the country's democracy is in good or somewhat good condition, while 26 percent said it was in bad or somewhat bad condition.

In April 2023, 50 percent had said democracy was in good or somewhat good condition, compared to 45 percent who believed it was in bad or somewhat bad condition. Regarding political expression, 29 percent of respondents said they feel free to openly express their political opinions, while 34 percent feel somewhat free.

However, 35 percent reported feeling somewhat or very afraid when expressing political views. The survey also highlighted the role of religion in politics. Half of the respondents said the influence of religion in politics has increased significantly or somewhat over the past year. Nineteen percent said it has decreased significantly or somewhat, while six percent reported no change.

Bangladeshis expressed strong approval of Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus and the interim government's performance. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said Yunus is doing a good job, while 70 percent gave the same approval rating to the interim government. "It is clear Bangladeshis see progress under Dr Yunus's leadership," said Johanna Kao, IRI's senior director for Asia-Pacific.

"Their vote of confidence in him and the interim government reflects a widespread desire for stability, accountability, and reform," she added. Kao further said, "The excitement of Bangladeshis highlights the importance of sustaining reform efforts and ensuring the elections are credible and peaceful."