The wave of momentum that the BNP rode on leading up to their rally on December 10 last year and its immediate aftermath seems to have fizzled out. The party leadership is clearly uncertain about the next course of action as the next parliamentary elections draw closer.

While some may wonder if BNP has failed to capitalise on its goodwill and momentum, political commentators say it is not at all unusual for the main opposition camp, which aspires to take office by toppling the incumbents, to lose steam midway.

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Who will be AL’s main challengers in the city polls?

Elected to office three times since 1991, BNP saw its public programmes gaining traction as it started talking about issues such as the rising prices of food, fuel and electricity. On top of that, when a few of their activists and leaders were killed, the crowd started overflowing. It was at this point that the party started holding divisional rallies in October last year.

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Khaleda Zia in politics: Missed chance for BNP?

The predictable obstruction put up by the ruling party in every possible way, at times aided by state apparatuses, only betrayed their desperation to encumber the BNP and throttle its campaign. But that backfired, and BNP's momentum with public support seemed to grow, culminating at the December 10 rally. In stark contrast to BNP's previous programmes – the vicious arson attacks of 2013 and 2014 to prevent the 2014 elections – this time, the campaign was noticeably peaceful.

The reason for BNP's campaign gaining public traction last year was that it was the first time in many years that the party raised issues relevant to the people instead of those relevant to the party's own interest – for instance, increasing food prices instead of the reinstatement of caretaker government system or the release of party chief Khaleda Zia. In fact, their failure to address issues that affect people's lives is often seen as one of the serious strategic mistakes the party has made in the past.

So, when the BNP planned to hold a rally in Dhaka, it was riddled with complications. The city authorities and police did not agree to the party's choice of venue. Party leaders and activists were locked up on flimsy charges, the party office was raided and major transport routes were blocked to keep people from expressing their solidarity with the BNP. Pundits think the party's obsession with its venue of choice took away the focus from the actual rally, which did not meet the expectations of the workers, especially given the build-up at the divisional rallies. The momentum was further dampened when, immediately after the rally, the party became rather engaged with releasing its leaders and activists from jail.

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Peaceful BNP rally brings sigh of relief

Since then, the BNP has been trying to regain its pace. The party announced a number of fresh protests, including human chains, hunger strikes and processions, in Dhaka and at the grassroots level. Here, too, the party faced obstacles as the ruling Awami League countered them with their own programmes almost everywhere on the same dates. This strategy of counter programmes provided the ruling party with the excuse to take to the streets and gradually defuse the opposition camp's campaign.

BNP also held a number of meetings with its grassroots leaders and activists, including former and incumbent local government representatives, to know their views about the next course of action for the party. They were unanimous in continuing the campaign and gear it up in Dhaka, where the party has always failed to seize the initiative ever since its election debacle in 2008.

The reason for BNP's campaign gaining public traction last year was that it was the first time in many years that the party raised issues relevant to the people instead of those relevant to the party's own interest – for instance, increasing food prices instead of the reinstatement of caretaker government system or the release of party chief Khaleda Zia. In fact, their failure to address issues that affect people's lives is often seen as one of the serious strategic mistakes the party has made in the past.

Last year, the BNP was able to motivate its workers and cash in on the sentiments of the masses, but even after that it failed to wage a sustained campaign, which frustrated many of its workers. Then, just as the party was about to come up with fresh programmes, Ramadan arrived, rendering all politics to the confines of the iftar table.

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Political dialogues: The long road to nowhere

With Eid holidays over, the country is bracing for the upcoming city corporation elections in five major cities, which will be a precursor to the general elections that are scheduled for late December this year or early January next year. Observers believe that political campaigns hardly get traction during local government elections. Although BNP has warned its workers against running in these elections, it would still be unwise to initiate a campaign when everyone's eyes are on the city polls.

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BNP goes for all-out boycott of five city polls

And following the city polls, we will be in the thick of monsoon when it will be hot, humid and wet, when street campaigns typically do not fare well.

Despite that, the BNP is still chalking out fresh programmes to mobilise its leaders and supporters and also the masses to stand behind its demand for a nonpartisan interim government in order to hold elections. While observers say that the lost momentum is rather difficult to regain, to make matters worse for them, the Awami League has managed the electricity problem rather well, and power outages remain rather few compared to the looming apprehension through the winter months.

Vladimir Lenin wrote about the crisis in his party in his book One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. But for BNP, it is more like one step forward, several steps back.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

With the election 14 days away, campaigning should be in full swing but the situation in Khulna is different.

Campaign activities for AL candidates in the city and villages of upazilas of Khulna were energetic but supporters of non-ruling party candidates, particularly the BNP and Jamaat, was hardly seen electioneering during a visit to three, out of six, constituencies in Khulna yesterday.

There was an uneasy calm and many kept themselves carefully away from campaigning or even discussing the December 30 polls.

A cross section of locals said those who support the BNP or the Jamaat-e-Islami have either kept themselves away from campaigning or have started electioneering for the AL to “avert police trouble or harassment”.

There were plenty of campaign offices and posters of AL candidates but hardly any of BNP candidates in Sonadanga, Ship Bari Intersection, Moyla Pota, Rupsha, Jail Khana Ghat, Picture Palace Crossing, Bakshi Para in Khulna-2; Rupsha Ferry Ghat, Elaipur, Noyhati, Kajdia, Ghat Bhogh, Lockpur, Sheikhpura, Shaili, Goara, Palerhat and Senerhat in Khulna-4; and Full Bari Gate, Mohsin More, Daulatpur, Baikari, Goalkhali, and Pabla in Khulna-3 constituency.

In Khalishpur area, where some factories are located, the number of posters of BNP candidates was higher than it was elsewhere in the city.

Almost no one was talking about the election at markets and tea-stalls in the areas where people are often heard discussing political matters.

Many avoided talking to these correspondents when approached for comments on the polls. Some did say that everything was going well and that the AL candidates were going to win.

However, after some chit-chat and following repeated assurances that they would not be in trouble of any sort, a number of the constituents said people were publicly saying that the AL candidate would win and that they would vote for AL candidates, but given the chance to cast their votes, they would vote for the BNP candidates.

“I used to support the BNP, but now I am an Awami League man as I do not want any trouble,” said a smiling tea vendor at Rupsha Ferry Ghat on Friday.

He said their shop owners' association leaders had asked him to join a campaign procession of AL candidate Abdus Salam Murshidi that day. All 200 shop owners of the association would close their shop at 2:00pm and join the procession, he had said.

He said, “In any procession of AL candidate you will see, let's say, 5000 people. In reality, 2,000 of them are BNP men. They will vote for BNP candidates like me.”

Similar comments were made by others these correspondents spoke to in Daulatpur, Sheikhpura, Sonadanga, and Fulbari Gate.

Another tea-stall owner at Kajdia Bazar of Rupsha, said in the locality there was no festivity centring the election.

“People who come to my stall show no interest in the election,” the shop owner said.

Sheikh Salauddin Jewel of AL and Nazrul Islam Monju of BNP are contesting in Khulna-2 (Sadar and Sonadanga) constituency; Abdus Salam Murshedi of AL and Azizul Bari Helal of BNP in Khulna-4 (Rupsha-Terokhada-Digholia); Begum Monnujan Sufian of AL and Rokibul Islam Bokul of BNP (Khalishpu-Daulatpur-Khanjahan Ali) are contesting Khulna-3.

Zunaid Ahmed Palak, the Awami League candidate for Natore-3, may have broken the election law by offering cash donation to villagers in his constituency.

At a campaign in Radhanagar village of Singra upazila on Monday, Palak, also state minister for ICT, announced a donation of Tk 2 lakh to fill up a local canal and directed the local leaders and activists to work to that end.

A video clip of his speech was posted on his verified Facebook page the same day.

In another footage posted also on the same day, Palak is seen addressing a gathering at Karachmaria playground where a football match was underway. In his speech, he announced a donation of Tk 10 lakh for the construction of a gallery at the playground.

“I am announcing Tk 10 lakh in donation for the gallery,” he said.

Offering such donations before election is illegal as election laws prohibit any action or comment that may influence voters.

Radhanagar village has been without power since independence. However, just months before the election schedule was announced, authorities there hurriedly set up electric poles and completed wiring at households.

Besides, an 8km road was constructed months ago to connect Radhanagar with neighbouring Singra and Nandigram towns. But, to get on the road, villagers have to cross a canal.

On Monday, Palak told the villagers, “I have no authority just 12 days before the election. Still I will try to bring electricity to you and fill up the canal before the polls,” he said.

“If I cannot, will you punish me?” he said.

As the villagers looked unconvinced, Palak said he would donate Tk 2 lakh to fill up the canal.

Despite repeated attempts over the last three days, The Daily Star could not reach Palak by phone for comments.

But Singra AL President Ohidur Rahman, also Palak's chief election agent, said, “The state minister's speeches did not violate the [electoral] laws. In fact, he announced that he would arrange those funds if he is re-elected and our party is voted to power again. So, the question of violation does not arise.”

BNP leaders allege that AL candidates of Rajshahi region are freely campaigning through Facebook and, in some cases, misusing their power or influencing the voters in violation of the electoral rules.

By contrast, most BNP leaders and activists have been asked to refrain from posting photographs and videos of campaigning on Facebook to avoid trouble, said Rajshahi district BNP chief Tofazzal Hossain Topu.

The BNP also decided not to organise any campaign at some upazilas including Mohonpur in Rajshahi-3, Bagha in Rajshahi-6 and Atrai in Naogaon-6 to avoid confrontation, he added.

Last December, BNP managed to create a strong momentum with successive divisional rallies, defying obstacles from the ruling party cadres and law enforcement agencies. But it lost that momentum when it tried to hold a rally in Dhaka. Since then, the party – which has been out of office for more than 16 years – has been trying to regain that thrust. This time around, BNP held a series of programmes around Dhaka and got some traction thanks to its supporters, leading up to its grand rally of July 28. The party was also able to hold the rally at its preferred venue, in front of its Nayapaltan headquarters. Tens of thousands of BNP workers joined in, defying myriad odds and obstacles. It turned out to be a mammoth rally and, encouraged by the turnout, BNP announced sit-in programmes at five entry points of the capital the very next day, presumably to cut off Dhaka from the rest of the country for several hours between 11am and 4pm. But the sit-in failed in the face of the ruling party's strong presence on the street and the aggressive attitude of the police. And again, BNP lost its momentum.

Since then, a few questions have been circulating in political circles: why did BNP go for such a programme? What did it achieve? And what will the party do now that the national election is just a few months away?

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For every rally, there is a counter-rally

After the announcement of BNP's one-point demand – resignation of the ruling government for a caretaker government to oversee elections – movement on July 12, the party took only 16 days to announce the sit-in demos. Coordination among the party fronts and associate bodies, which requires time, is imperative to make such ambitious programmes successful, but there seems to have been a lack of coordination among BNP leaders in this regard. Even some of the party's senior leaders were in the dark about these programmes till they were announced. The decision of a sit-in demo of such a scale, without much time on its hands, indicates that BNP was in a hurry.

There is no denying that the party has a strategy in place to achieve its goal of the next election being held under a nonpartisan, election-time government. But it seems that the plan may not be as well thought out as BNP supporters would like. The party's leadership felt charged up seeing the large-scale turnout in the rally, but they underestimated the government's strength and strategic abilities. This explains why BNP couldn't succeed entirely in its programme, and now seems to have backtracked from its tough stance. After the sit-in, the party announced demos in districts and cities across Bangladesh, which is a deviation from its Dhaka-centric plans. The lack of coordination and confidence in terms of holding large rallies and showdown-like programmes can demoralise grassroots BNP supporters, who are paying a high price for the erroneous judgement calls of the party's top brass.

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Can BNP really put up a good fight?

For the longest time, BNP has argued that the government and law enforcement agencies are obstructing their peaceful rallies, and the events which unfolded on July 29 has once again lent credence to their clams. The attack by ruling party men, in the presence of the law enforcement agencies, has laid bare just how "democratic" the government will be in the lead up to the elections. Of course, some BNP men did engage in violent activities during the sit-ins, but the previous programmes of BNP were largely peaceful, despite instigations. Either way, BNP knows that any violence from its own party will eventually work against itself. And this time, the party is being careful as it was accused of conducting arson attacks in 2013 and trying to sabotage the January 5, 2014 election.

Back in 2013, the party did not come up with alternative strategies when they saw that the blockades were not working. At least this time around, they have backtracked from their plans and proposed an alternative when they realised that the sit-in had failed. This could be interpreted as the party being more mature and wiser in its current decisions.

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What is the point of attacking BNP rallies?

BNP's real loss in all this was giving the upper hand to the ruling party. There was no doubt that the ruling party felt pressure, especially after the composed and largely organised grand rally. But the following day, when ruling party cadres were able to easily disperse the BNP demonstrators, it worked like a morale-boosting tonic for the former. They felt more confident about being on the streets and not giving anything away to the BNP. This was essential for the Awami League at a time when it seemed to be under pressure from different directions to hold a free and fair election. Now it remains to be seen whether BNP can once again revive their momentum and give the ruling party a run for their money.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is chief reporter at The Daily Star.

The ruling Awami League's 22nd council concluded on Saturday, electing Sheikh Hasina as its president for a record 10th consecutive time. Obaidul Quader made a hattrick as the general secretary. The national triennial council ended, as expected – even before the council – without any major changes, although the political situation of the country is different this time compared to that of the last two councils.

The last two AL councils were held in 2016 and 2019, and they each took place after the national elections in 2014 and 2018, respectively. But this time, the council was held a year before the national election. Another point to note is that the main opposition camp, BNP, appears to have woken up out of a political hibernation, displaying its organisational strength on the streets. So, the new committee of the ruling party is set to face a double challenge – preparing for election 2023 and politically countering the BNP movement.

In the political arena, the popular perception is that the Awami League is more organised, stronger and more successful when it is the opposition. Starting from the Six-Point Movement of the 1960s, which was the precursor to the 1971 Liberation War, to forcing the BNP government to introduce a constitutional caretaker government provision in 1996, the now-ruling Awami League has historically been seen as a strong, formidable, and vocal opposition on the streets.

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Mahfuz Anam writes: From Bangabandhu to Sheikh Hasina

But now the question is whether the AL, as a ruling party, is capable of countering the opposition camp's campaign and preparing for the upcoming election at the same time. This may prove difficult given that the party has become used to smooth sailing and calm waters over its 14 consecutive years in office, during which it has successfully managed to stifle any opposition.

It is a well-accepted maxim that parties weaken organisationally with long stints in power. And that holds true for the ruling Awami League. Yes, it is true that the opposition could not put up a strong enough challenge after the January 5, 2014 election and till June of this year. To be more specific, one could even say that it was not the ruling party but the government which was successful in tackling the opposition. That is why we often hear that bureaucrats run the show, not politicians.

On the other hand, with the Awami League in office for 14 years, its grassroots leaders and workers enjoyed a free run because of the opposition camp's organisational weakness. They indulged themselves in other matters (particularly rent seeking), because there was hardly anyone from the opposition to challenge them on the field. And it is no secret that the Awami League General Secretary, Obaidul Quader, told his party leaders and workers to "save the party" by quitting the practice of "exchanging money for positions in local-level committees."

As the AL relied on administration and law enforcers to counter the opposition's campaign on the streets, the party men let loose. So, while the government became stronger, the ruling party did not stay in step. Rather, AL's grassroots leaders and activists have now become more divided. Intra-party conflict has become rampant. Distance between ministers and lawmakers, lawmakers and district leaders and local Awami League leaders have widened.

It may sound like an exaggeration, but one need only look at the fact that more than a hundred people were killed centring the union council elections of 2021, with most of them belonging to the ruling party itself, due to intra-party feuds.

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How will Awami League tackle the run-up to the election?

Before the polls, the party announced that rebel candidates who work against the party would be expelled. And many were expelled but before the council. But it is also said that there was a general amnesty granted to those party men. No doubt, this concession was made keeping in mind the next general election and the opposition's campaign. But, will those who revolted once or defamed Bangabandhu or tarnished the image of the government or the party bring any good for the Awami League? Most importantly, how do the survivors of their rebellion view this general amnesty? Could it further widen the prevailing intra-party rift?

The current AL committee is almost unchanged from the previous one, with only a few reshuffles. But when the party, or more appropriately the government, is going through the toughest time of its recent history due to allegations of corruption, the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, a grim post-Covid economic situation and the opposition's diligent campaign, would it be able to overcome the crises simply by relying on the old guard?

Any new council brings some changes to the party in order to reorganise it. But this time, the ruling party appears to want to rely on its old faithfuls to face the upcoming challenges. Of course, only time will tell how far they can go relying on its old stalwarts. One thing is clear: the ruling party is passing through a very critical time on many fronts, and a slip, any slip on any front, would prove very costly indeed.

Mohammad Al-Masum Molla is deputy chief reporter at The Daily Star.