Opposition from the civil society to the gas export plan turned into mass awareness about the limited gas reserve of the country and the danger of selling it outside. The gas export plan was aborted in the wake of a countrywide opposition against such a plan.

One can see how logical the conservative attitude of the civil society was on the issue of gas in a country whose economy is so much dependent on this resource. Several studies predict that the country will face a major gas crisis, with shortfall in gas supply from 2014 and the exhaustion of the present gas reserve by 2020. About 90% of the presently generated 3500-3700 MW electricity is being produced in gas-fired power plants.

With an electricity demand of 5000 MW, the nation is reeling under load-shedding to the tune of 1200-1500 MW. When the future energy scenario is considered, it becomes obvious that the problem is enormous and will be very difficult to manage.

Let us consider the year 2015. At that time, the electricity demand of the country will rise to about 9800 MW (source: Power System Master Plan 2006), and the country will have already faced a gas supply crisis. In the year 2020, the electricity demand will be 14000 MW, and by that time the present gas reserve will be exhausted.

Some new gas fields are expected to be discovered by that time, but they will not be enough to meet the demand. The assessment of the undiscovered gas resource of Bangladesh, carried out by a joint team of United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Petrobangla experts in 2001, has predicted that there is 95% possibility of discovering 8.2 Tcf gas in the next 30 years.

On the other hand, the government has forecast a gas demand of 25 Tcf over the next 18 years, upto 2025, to achieve a targeted annual growth of 7%.

Coal and other alternative energy sources will be able to increase their shares in the energy mix of the country, but these cannot adequately replace gas. Consequently, gas will remain the major energy source for fuelling the power plants, not to mention sectors like fertilizer and other industries, and domestic and CNG transport. In the absence of enough gas in the country, import of gas will be essential for running the system.

Since there is no scope for gas import from India, Bangladesh has to look towards its other neighbour, gas rich Myanmar, for that purpose. Thailand has been importing gas from Myanmar from several years now. India is on its way to implementing gas import plan from Myanmar, while China is also negotiating with Myanmar to buy gas.

All eyes are focused on the recently discovered offshore gas fields near the Arakan coast, which is near to the Bangladesh border. This means that there is a crowd of buyers in the Myanmar gas market now. Negotiation for a gas import contract, construction of a pipeline, production, and transmission, are very time consuming processes. So, if Bangladesh does not move to initiate the process early, it may fall behind in the competition for gaining access to the gas market, or the gas may not reach us when the crisis begins.

Energy observers opine that Bangladesh may initiate a gas import plan to buy gas from the Shwe, Shwe Phu or Mia gas fields, discovered recently in the offshore blocks A-1 and A-3 off the Arakan coast in Myanmar (see map). These three gas fields have large reserves, and are only about 100 km from the Teknaf coast in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh will need a 200 km long gas pipeline from the Arakan coast to Chittagong via Teknaf, in order to connect the Myanmar gas system to the Bangla national grid. Certainly, Bangladesh is in a better position with respect to gas transmission from Myanmar, compared to the Indians and the Chinese, because of the very long distances and the complicated routes of the pipeline.

However, a delay in initiating plans to negotiate with the Myanmar government may give the other parties the upper hand in the gas deal. It is now known that India is planning an alternative pipeline route from Myanmar to West Bengal, via Tripura and Assam, after it failed to negotiate with Bangladesh for a tri-nation gas pipeline through Bangladesh territory.

Some observers opine that coal may replace gas significantly, if not totally, in the long run. This proposition has serious problems, considering the nature of coal deposits and difficulties in coal mining in Bangladesh. For generation of 2000 MW power, 5.2 million tons of coal per year will be required.

An underground mine like Barapukuria may have a target of producing of 1 million tons of coal per year. In such a case, production of 5 million tons will require 5 underground mines, a very difficult task to achieve, considering the cost of underground mine construction and the number of coal fields available. Even if it is possible, 2000 MW will not be a large share when the demand will be 9800MW by the year 2015.

Open-pit mines can, however, produce about 90% of the total coal reserve, compared to 25% recovery from underground mines. But open-pit mining does not have good prospects in Bangladesh primarily because of two reasons, i.e. dense population living off the fertile cultivable land in coal field areas, and thick, water-bearing layers above coal deposits, which would apparently create huge environmental and water management problems.

Let us consider the case of Asia Energy Company's (AEC) attempt to construct an open-pit mine in Phulbari. Although AEC gave an assurances that the water and environmental problems could be adequately managed and the people living in the coalfield area would be properly resettled, these were not accepted by a large section of the general public and the civil society.

A violent encounter, resulting in the death of some demonstrators who were protesting against the proposed open-pit mine, made matters worse. Apparently, AEC became a social outcast at that time, and the mining company had to abort its operation in Phulbari. It looks like the incident at Phulbari will make the acceptability of open-pit mining in this country much more difficult than before.

Coal, nuclear power, hydro-power, solar energy etc., may, to varying degrees, supplement gas as energy drivers for the country in the medium to long term future, but these will not be able to replace gas. The dependence on gas will remain a major feature in the energy scenario in this country. Rigorous exploration for gas in the onshore and offshore areas of the country is a job the government should undertake at this moment. Looking into the present gas reserve, and the prospect of further tapping of "yet undiscovered gas field," it seems that Bangladesh will inevitably need to import gas.

Dr. Badrul Imam is Professor, Geology department, Dhaka University.