Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1067 Sat. June 02, 2007  
   
Editorial


Post Breakfast
Nicolas Sarkozy's new France


A carefully choreographed and rigorously efficient US style election campaign has brought Nicolas Sarkozy the French Presidency. Consistent with this style, Sarkozy, after his taking of oath as the new President on 16 May, has made it clear that he will be personally involved in the details of economic reform.

The French President has given himself 100 days to adopt a wide-ranging group of ambitious economic measures. This will involve loosening of the 35-hour workweek, cutting of taxes and curbing the power of French Labour Unions. These factors, one can only say, will be like throwing the proverbial stone at a hornet's nest. It will also make him more vulnerable to the hostility his reforms could ignite.

Mr Sarkozy, in the true mould of Washington is also considering creating an enlarged strategic unit to deal with foreign and defence policy in the Presidential Office. This effort will aim to replicate the National Security Council, as it exists within the White House. It will be aimed at opening the decision-making process to a much broader pool of advisers. Such a possibility has already led one of his close aides, former Foreign Minister Michael Barnier, to term him as a 'presidential entrepreneur' who will not only be more involved in domestic issues but also willing to receive advice on strategic situations.

Such a hands-on approach by the French President can only be described as being a great departure from that pursued under former President Chirac.

He has, as already expected, also named his friend, jogging partner and campaign adviser Francois Fillion as Prime Minister. Analysts have described this step as being contrary to past practice -- where Presidents used their Prime Ministers as shields who could be sacrificed in times of political crisis. Such a move by the new French President will be followed with great interest, as the reality of the next few months might by very complicated and complex.

Sarkozy's first battle will be the two-round legislative elections on 10 and 17 June where his party, the Union for Popular Movement (UPM), will need to win a majority to enact the laws his advisers had prepared before the elections in May. This includes a possible Bill that will eliminate payroll and income tax on overtime in a bid to water down the issue of the 35-hour working week. Another would grant universities more autonomy. A third draft law is expected to mandate minimum service during strikes in the public transport sector. Sarkozy aims to put all such legislations to vote in the new legislature by the end of August this year.

It is expected the Sarkozy like US President Ronald Reagan will try to stress on his tough-cop image and hard work ethic that worked so well among blue-collar voters, even in the traditionally leftist-voting former industrial region of northern France. It is understood that Sarkozy's party plans to field centrist allies and even candidates with leftist credentials in some of the constituencies to fend off efforts by the Socialist party and the new centrist movement aimed at depriving the right of a majority. These elections will be the first hurdle in the path of the new President and his hopes to implement his proposals for reform that he promised during his campaign.

These upcoming elections have assumed particular significance given the threats issued by the different Unions, particularly the powerful CGT, that they plan to take the protests into the streets. At this point of time, the UPM is still ahead in public perception with an estimated 34 per cent as opposed to 29 per cent for the Socialist party, but the street has always played a significant part in French politics.

As compared to Chirac, the new president has chosen a leaner 15-member Cabinet with more women on a proportionate basis. It also includes Raschida Dati, a French women of Moroccan descent.

Sarkozy, since the election, has been meeting European leaders. It has been claimed by the Office of the new President that he has been doing so to have an agreed blueprint for institutional reform of the European Union. He wants this to take place before the crucial EU Summit this month. He is hoping that he can break the deadlock over the European constitution following the earlier French no-vote in 2005. European Commission President J M Barroso has welcomed this. He has expressed hope that Sarkozy will play the role of 'motor' in helping to overhaul EU institutions.

Leaders across Europe have welcomed Sarkozy to centre stage in Paris but some like Germany, have tempered their enthusiasm with caution. Quite correctly, they have questioned some of his protectionist policies given the delicate stage over future negotiations within the unfinished WTO process.

Some, including the USA, have also voiced concern over his strong and open opposition to Turkey joining the European Union. They feel that this view might eventually divide the 27-member bloc. Sarkozy's posture of Turkey, shared by German Chancellor Merkel, is not acceptable to many other members of the EU, including Britain, Spain and many member states from Eastern Europe. It will be interesting to see whether Sarkozy, now that he is President will actually halt the opening of further negotiating chapters. It may be recalled here that Chancellor Merkel has refused to support full membership but has never blocked accession negotiations.

It may be noted here that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, already under domestic pressure over interpretation of secularism within his government, will be watching Sarkozy with care. He has already gone on record expressing his anxiety that he does not want the inflexibility of Sarkozy to be the cause for 'affecting our bilateral ties'. At the end of the day, Sarkozy's foreign policy agenda could ultimately depend on two things: whether the Franco-German alliance can again become the driving force inside the EU and whether Gordon Brown, the next British Prime Minister can re-engage with Europe.

Russia's reactions till now have been muted. They, for obvious reasons, are continuing to carefully watch the evolving situation in Europe, particularly in Germany, Italy, France and Britain (where there have been changes in political leadership). Such a dynamics has raised the factor of 'unpredictability' in international relations for the Russians. It has also become that much more important given the fact that the Russians are also expecting a change of leadership next year.

Any analysis of a future France under Sarkozy will however remain incomplete without reference to the US-French relationship and the changes expected under the guidance of an unabashedly pro-American leader. Sarkozy has appointed Bernard Kouchner, a Socialist by temperament as Foreign Minister. Kouchner will probably temper Sarkozy's exuberance for the USA but will most certainly seek to ease tensions between the two countries. This team is also expected to underline that two friends can think differently.

It is anticipated that Bush will be meeting Sarkozy this month during the next G-8 Summit and will be able to discuss with him not only about compassionate conservatism but also Iraq. It is however uncertain whether Sarkozy will emerge from the meeting as Bush's 'best new friend' in Europe (after the exit of Tony Blair).

France under Sarkozy will also be under watchful scrutiny of the countries in the Middle East. Under Chirac, France was recognised as a 'dear friend' who had the 'courage' to stand up to the neo-conservative lobby in the United States. Sarkozy on the other hand is already being hailed as a 'friend of Israel'. Sarkozy's team has pointed out that he believes in the traditional French position on Palestine (the two-state solution through bilateral negotiations) but some Arab governments are worried that French policies might no longer be as 'balanced' as before. 'Saudi Gazette', published from Jeddah, has reflected this when they observed that with the equation neutralised in favour of a more US-centric Europe, the Arab-Israeli conflict might now see a change.

In any case, the next few months will be interesting for France and even more so for Europe. It will also cast its long shadow in other areas of the world.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at [email protected]