Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1036 Tue. May 01, 2007  
   
Editorial


Finale to the Elysee palace


Regardless of the outcome, it is certain that French politics is destined to take a big swing after the May 6 run-off in the presidential election. The voters are in a fairly aggressive mood in France. The heavy turnout in the first phase (83.8 percent, the highest since 1965) is indicative of the French voters' fatigue, and growing aversion towards the Chirac legacy.

The desire for change is very much palpable in this heavy turnout. The results show a mixed division of votes among the top three runners; Sarkozy mustered 31.18 percent vote, ahead of Royal's 25.87 percent share, while the centrist candidate Francois Bayrou got the third place with 18.57 percent votes.

Though the outcome of the April 22 round does depict a kind of vagueness or indecisiveness in voters' thinking pattern -- with respect to right, left and center -- three clear inferences can be drawn from it.

One, Sarkozy's tangible lead over Royal is a corroboration of the pre-election opinion polls that showed that a majority of French voters would opt for drastic reforms in the social and economic system. So, Sarkozy must be relatively more confident about his success on May 6. Two, Francois Bayrou, who, at one point during the presidential campaign, was neck-and-neck with Royal, has effectively established himself as "third man" of French politics.

Despite his inability to make it to the finale, he has built a base for himself from where he can emerge as the real challenger in the next presidential race in 2012. He is there to stay in French politics.

His score of almost 7 million votes (three times more than what he garnered in the 2002 presidential poll) is a testimony to the existence of a big chunk of "centrists" that has all the potential to swell up to a decisive level in the coming days. Against this backdrop, Bayrou is now expected to focus on the June legislative election where he will be trying to further strengthen the centrists' presence in French politics.

And three, despite his refusal to personally take sides in the May 6 run-off, the supporters of Bayrou are going to play the crucial role in determining the final outcome. Although the duel between Sarkozy and Royal seems to be a return to traditional right-left dichotomy in the final round, there are clear indications that the centrist voters will be one of the main factors in deciding the fate of the two contenders.

Nonetheless, 7 million votes can make a big impact in the almost 44 million voter pool. That is why; both the camps have been frantically trying to woo the centrists. But Bayrou has rightly kept himself away from the run-off episode. His stance is that his supporters are "citizens who are free to choose." This is certainly a pragmatic approach.

Any endorsement of either Sarkozy or Royal at this stage is likely to negatively affect his campaign for the June legislative election -- which is perhaps more crucial for his centrist Union for a Democratic France (UDF), and his own political survival as the "third man" image.

Apparently, since April 22, Nicolas Sarkozy has been cruising smoothly ahead of Royal in opinion polls, which must give him some sort of satisfaction. Interestingly, both Sarkozy and Royal have been propagating two strikingly different recipes for bolstering the meager growth, and growing unemployment, of the world's sixth largest economy.

Royal is eager to stimulate consumer demand and consumption by enhancing job security, pension spending and fixing the minimum wage, while Sarkozy suggests increasing corporate efficiency by trimming taxes, removing overtime compensation and weakening labour protection.

Sarkozy, who is particularly aggressive on the labour market, is proposing to deregulate the labour market by making firing easy, and discouraging overtime by removing taxes and charges on overtime beyond the statutory 35-hour-a-week.

He also favours decreasing inheritance tax rates, capping individual's tax payments at the maximum of 50 percent of income, and replacing only half of the retiring civil servants. On the other hand, Royal has been working on an economic agenda that revolves around job protection and increasing consumption.

She wants to emulate the Scandinavian model of blending economic security with worker flexibility, and her main slogan is job protection through scrapping a contract that permits the small companies to sack new employees without cause during their first two years on the job.

She is also planning to augment the minimum wage by 20 percent by 2012, boost the lowest pensions and create 400,000 jobs in the public sector. Both are looking at the economic issues from entirely contrasting angles. Royal is opting for short-term tactics to kindle the economic growth rate, whereas Sarkozy has more of a coherent long-term, pro-market reformist program.

In the first round, Royal successfully managed to entice the majority of socialist voters to support her instead of splitting their verdict among other unimportant socialist candidates. Again, for the May 6 run-off, her focus will be to further capitalize on her socialist appeal, while projecting herself as "near-to-centre" to attract the still undecided centrist voters.

But, practically speaking, Sarkozy, in spite of his hard-looking reformist agenda, is in a better position to take the psychological advantage of his first round lead to out-perform his rival in the finale to the Elysee palace.

Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.
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