Bird flu first appeared in Bangladesh in at Biman's farm in Savar. Newspapers first reported Biman's bird flu outbreak on March 23. The date when the outbreak started has not been reported, but we can safely assume that it was probably around March 16 (assuming that it must have taken a week for blood samples from sick chickens to be sent from the farm to a diagnostic lab, and for the positive test result to be obtained). Jessore is about 270 km from Savar. So if the Savar outbreak started on March 16 (one week before it was reported in the press), the virus appears to have spread at an average speed of 18 km per day (270 km from Savar to Jessore in 15 days between March 16 and March 31).

Teknaf and Tetulia are each approximately 700 km from Dhaka. If the virus continues to spread geographically at a rate of 18 km per day, it should take about 38 days for it to spread from yesterday's outbreak site in Ashulia to the furthest reaches of the country. That would be a disaster for poultry farmers all over Bangladesh. The government must stop the spread of the virus while it is still present in only a few districts.

It is time for the government to face the fact that certain tough measures must be taken to stop the spread of bird flu. When the first outbreak in Savar was reported, the government announced that it would take the following actions. (1) The movement of chickens would be restricted within a 10 km radius of infected farms, (2) chickens within a 1 km radius of the infected farms would be "culled" (killed), and (3) farmers would be compensated for chickens which were culled.

Stopping transportation of chickens out of infected areas is obviously essential to stopping the spread of the disease. What is not obvious is that killing chickens on farms near the infected farms is also essential. As the virus spreads so fast (18 km per day), one must assume that chickens on farms near the infected farms are also infected but are not showing symptoms yet. The only way to be safe is to kill all chickens near infected farms. Obviously this cannot be accomplished without compensating the farmers; without compensation they would not cooperate with a culling program.

The problem is that culling and compensation have not been practiced uniformly. Chickens within a 1 km radius of the Gazipur and Savar bird flu outbreaks were culled, but the same policy was not followed in dealing with bird flu outbreaks in Tangail and Jamalpur. As the Daily Star reported (on March 29):

"Livestock department officials are carrying out surveillance in all affected districts but did not take any measure to cull free range chickens in Jamalpur and Tangail within a kilometre radius of the infected farms there, which is supposed to be the official strategy for preventing spread of the virus. Reports received from Jamalpur said district livestock officers have yet to take any measure to cull free range chickens within a kilometre radius of the infected farms in the district."

Why were chickens not culled in Jamalpur and Tangail? This is unclear from the news reports, but one can guess that the government did not have the funds to compensate farmers for chickens which were supposed to be culled. If this is the reason, the government should immediately ask the international donors for funds to support a program of culling all poultry (with compensation) within 1km of all the outbreaks which have been detected so far. It might also be advisable to involve large NGOs like BRAC in the compensation disbursement process so that farmers are not cheated out of due compensation by corrupt government officials.

S.M. Abdur Rahman is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.