Studies show income of half the 14 crore people has decreased by the end of the alliance government's regime. On the other hand, income of 30 percent people marked moderate increase and the top 20 percent made sharp increase.

The rising GDP (gross domestic product) rate however implies that the country's overall poverty level has marked a downtrend.

Though the ruling BNP in its 2001 election manifesto had categorically promised of "transparency and competition in all financial transactions", corruption in the last five years remained totally unchecked. In fact, corruption has dominated government procurement, although the government had framed some stringent rules to curb corruption.

At the macro-economic level, most fronts of the economy enjoyed stability for most of the last five years. But as the government failed to check inflation, people could not reap the benefit of the macro-economic stability.

Development activities of the country did not take place on the basis of national priority or plans. They were undertaken on the basis of influence of ministers or lawmakers of the ruling parties. In other words, the powerful ones 'bagged' more development programmes aimed at their constituency than those who had lesser or no power. This also implies that development activities were done to ensure that the ministers or MPs get re-elected at the cost of the national exchequer.

A recent survey of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) finds that poverty in some constituencies increased in the last five years and decreased or slightly increased in other areas. This has happened because the government did not undertake development programmes on the basis of real priority.

The BNP in its election manifesto had promised to bring more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) than ever before. But records do not show any significant rise in the FDI from 2001 to 2004 except in 2005 when investment by cellphone companies changed the volume. However, the international cellphone companies also take out millions of dollars in profit.

Again, the annual FDI growth rate during 1997 to 2001 on an average was 29 percent each year. In contrast, this rate during 2002 to 2005 was on an average 28 percent each year. In other words, the FDI growth during the alliance government rule is 1 percentage point lower than that in the previous regime.

But the BNP-led government had a lot of opportunities to increase the FDI and create new employment that it failed to seize. For instance, the government declined to give licence to Korean Export Processing Zone (KEPZ) for five years until it gave the go-ahead last month. The KEPZ was all set to launch from 2002 and it had outlined an investment of $1 billion in manufacturing sector in addition to employing 100,000 people. Similarly, it could not tap Indian giant Tata's $3 billion investment proposal.

There were some noble initiatives from the government in regards to reform and setting new rules and institutions to curb corruption and ensure transparency. But none of these was implemented properly and as a result, none saw the intended outcomes.

Some reform measures were actually implemented just to fulfil conditions imposed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) against certain loans. As a result, these reforms faced stiff resistance from within the government.

Immediate past finance minister M Saifur Rahman has served three different governments of the BNP and the four-party alliance different times. Before his last term, Saifur commanded strong authority but this time his authority faced a lot of opposition within the government and in many instances, he had to change his stand on certain issues. For instance, he had opposed all projects under Supplier's Credit and then retreated from his hard position.

GDP & POVERTY
The annual GDP growth rate during the previous Awami League (AL) regime was 5.34 percent on an average. During the BNP-led regime, this rate on an average increased to 5.68 percent. But more significantly, the growth rate in the last three years exceeded 6 percent. Consequently, it contributed broadly to poverty reduction.

Poverty has been reduced by 1.78 percent per year on an average in the last five years. In the previous decade, this rate was 1 percent.

But at the same time, social disparity continued increasing in the last five years, while the income level of the poor has decreased. According to the BBS 2005 survey on household income and expenditure, the disparity increased to 0.467 points in 2005 from 0.451 in 2000. Again, this disparity focuses on 50 percent of the population, who represent only 20 percent of the nation's income.

Poverty has been reduced by 14.7 percentage point in Dhaka Division in the last five years, 11.7 percentage point in Chittagong and 8.6 percentage point in Sylhet. But the scenario was bleak in the poverty-prone areas when the statistics show poverty has declined by 5.3 percentage point in Rajshahi and 1.1 percentage point in Barisal, while it has been increased by 0.4 percentage point in Khulna Division.

Haphazard and unplanned approval and implementation of development programmes have caused such unbalanced poverty reduction.

Again, high inflation overshadowed the benefits of poverty reduction. During the AL regime, inflation was largely in control, though the 1998 flood had pushed it up to 8.7 percent and kept it at a high of 7.1 percent in 1999. But the AL government brought it down to 2.8 percent in 2000 and 1.9 percent in 2001. But the inflation under the BNP-led government marked a steady rise. It went up to 2.8 percent in 2002, 4.4 percent in 2003, 5.8 percent in 2004, 6.5 percent in 2005 and over 7 percent in 2006.

But statistical figures are not required to see how skyrocketing prices of commodities have affected living in Bangladesh in recent years. There has been uproar over uncontrolled price hike in the kitchen markets. This scenario worsened by nearly three-fold increase in the prices of petroleum products. These rises were caused by both government policies, dominance of unholy traders' syndicate in the pricing mechanism and global market scenario.

MACRO-ECONOMY
The macro-economy maintained an overall stability. The annual budget deficit hovered below a tolerable 4 percent, while revenue collection increased more than that achieved during the previous AL government.

During the AL regime, revenue collection grew at 8.9 percent annually. This increased by 13.9 percent under the immediate past government. But it leaves much to be desired in the area of tax-GDP ratio. The international standard for the tax-GDP ratio is minimum 15 percent, while this hovered at 9 percent during the AL government and highest 10.8 percent during the four-party government.

The alliance government introduced a floating exchange rate in 2003, which is a major breakthrough in financial sector. Floatation is liberalisation where exchange rate of taka is determined by its own strength. The floatation has remained more or less stable due to a strong monitoring of the Bangladesh Bank through the nationalised commercial banks (NCBs). Taka has been devalued by 28 percent during the BNP government despite introduction of this floating rate. During the AL regime, taka was devalued by 32 percent, though back then it was controlled.

The foreign currency reserve also enjoyed more stability and improvement than in the previous AL regime. When the AL left power, the reserve came down to nearly $1 billion. Now it has gone up to $3.5 billion. Throughout the BNP rule, the reserve hovered around $3 billion.

Similarly, remittance from expatriate workers -- that contributes directly to this reserve and poverty reduction -- has also increased. During the AL rule, remittance hovered around $2 billion annually. But it went up to annually $4.8 billion last year.

However, this rise did not exactly take place because of any government initiatives. The globally launched move against hundi has strengthened remittance through official channels. The remittances increased despite a shrinking of manpower export market because of the global uncertainty following the 9/11 attack.

As almost all of this remittance is sent by low-level workers abroad, the direct beneficiaries at home are rural people and the poor. This has greatly helped reduce poverty in the country.

DEFICIT FINANCING
While the budget deficit remained within a tolerable limit in the last five years, the government faced a decreasing aid and loan flow from multilateral and foreign donors. As a result, the government resorted to high level of internal borrowing from the banks.

This has contributed to the increasing inflation on one hand, and increase in the total budgetary expenditure for interest payment.

During the AL regime, foreign aid entered at the rate of $1.44 billion each year. This decreased to $1.29 billion each year in the last five years.

Government borrowing from banks during the AL regime stood at Tk 11,365 crore from the fiscal years 97 to 2001. The alliance government borrowed Tk 13,566 crore in total from banks between fiscal years 2002 and 2006. A large part of the AL government's lending increased in the context of the 1998 flood in the fiscal years of 2000 and 2001. The alliance government's borrowing trend on the other hand steadily increased, especially in the last three years.

The most worrying fact in this trend is that the government borrowed Tk 8,938 crore from the Bangladesh Bank in the last fiscal year that directly hit inflation.

BANKING REFORMS
The alliance government took initiatives for bank reforms in the very beginning. As a result, the overall default loan of 42 percent in 1999 came down to 16.59 percent in June 2006. At the private banks, default loans came down to a paltry 5.98 percent.

The average interest rate on the other hand came down from 13 percent of 2001 to 9 percent in July 2005. It however went up to 12.06 percent on an average due to various reasons in June 2006.

But the reforms at the NCBs remained unsatisfactory and were slowed down by and large.

DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE
For a country like Bangladesh, the development expenditure should be minimum 10 percent of the GDP. But the country still could not attain a rate of more than 5 percent due to poor implementation and poor governance. Both the AL and alliance governments' performance in this regard is similar.

The biggest problem in development expenditure is wastage, corruption and low priority projects getting higher priority.

The government prepared poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSP) instead of the five-year development plan and as per the PRSP the government was supposed to formulate a three-year rolling investment plan. But the BNP government did not formulate the rolling investment plan and development projects were taken with the influence of ministers instead of the country's need.

For instance, it will take Tk 500 crore to set up the third Karnaphuli bridge, which has high economic importance. But the government did not undertake this project. Instead, the government annually spends several thousand crores of taka for earth digging to ensure the river's navigability. It is alleged that this entire sum is pocketed by vested interest groups.

Though the public government expenditure review commission was formed, but major recommendations of it were not implemented.

The government formed a number of oversight regulatory bodies to check corruption like the Anti-Corruption Commission, but most of the bodies could not function effectively. The Public Procurement Regulation was enacted, but the government plunged into corruption flouting the regulation.