Lebanon's woes lie in its demographic composition of a compartmentalized patchwork of religious communities. The southern half of Lebanon, bordering Israel, is Shiite, or Hizbollah, territory. The Shiites are also firmly placed in a major part of the strategic Bekaa valley bordering Syria. In Beirut, the Shiites live in the southern quarter. The Shiites, who constitute 26% of the total population of Lebanon, have been transformed by Iranian influence, and by the disciplined and supportive activities of Hizbollah. The appearance of a charismatic and spirited leader in Hassan Nasrollah has further helped their cause. That the Shiites did not have a pleasant experience during the eight years of Israeli occupation also helped. The Israelis had a tough opponent in Hizbollah and the toll was rising. It made even Ariel Sharon choose the discreet option.

Israel has used its full might, and that too over a period of more than one month. The David and Goliath contest has apparently benefited Hizbollah more than Israel. Its constancy has received recognition in spite of the havoc wrought on its civilian population. By all accounts Israel's drive against the Hizbollah for the recovery of their soldiers was disproportionate, to say the least. This is evident in the colossal destruction of residential quarters, public utilities, and the collateral killing of well over one thousand innocent civilians. Israel operated on the theory that every Shiite residential area is a hide-out of Hizbollah.

The motive was much larger than the recovery of the soldiers. It was quite clear that Israel was hell-bent upon pummelling Hizbollah into pulp. For Israel, it amounted to sanitizing its northern border. To the south, in the Gaza strip, Hamas has been cowed down. On the east, a wall spanning the entire border with the West Bank is nearing completion. The Hamas leaders are on the back foot. Hamas's relationship with Mahmud Abbas and his Fatah is showing signs of strain. The sanitizing job is on course. Hizbollah is badly mauled and Hamas has been pushed into a corner where the blame of public distress lies on it.

Only a greater goal justifies the massive Israeli offensive in Lebanon. In its simplest form, Israel may be precluding, once and for all, the necessity of undertaking such exercises in future. Israel wants to make its own peace, and on its own terms, and certainly a lasting one. The best time for it is when the price of peace is as low as it could be. The best time is when the other side is down on the ground, and there is no respite for them in sight. To stretch it further, when even the opponent's patron or patrons are in a tight corner, and before the prospect of taking them (the opponents) on becomes perilous. Hizbollah and Hamas are badly battered. Syria is in a tight corner and Iran is treading carefully in view of the gradually stiffening stand of the western powers against its nuclear program.

Israel will now want to validate the situation. United States has much bigger problems in Iraq and Afghanistan. The breakdown of the ethno-religious pact in Iraq is showing no signs of improvement. It has a League of Nations scenario that led to the creation of five states in the Middle East. Under the British trusteeship, three countries, Iraq, Jordan and Israel were created out of the Vilayets (provinces) of the Ottoman Empire.

The British showed their excellence in drawing the borders of countries by creating Iraq out of the Vilayets of Mosul (having non-Arab Kurds), Baghdad (with a large Sunnite population), and Basra (with a Shiite majority.) Faisal, the younger son of Sharif Huseyn, the then custodian of Mecca and Medina was installed as the King of Iraq in return for Sharif Huseyn's support against the Ottoman Turks. The French, in the battle of Maysalun Pass earlier, drove him out from Damascus in July 1920. Sharif Huseyn's eldest son, Abdullah, was installed as the King of TransJordan, constituting of territories south of the Vilayet of Damascus, and territories annexed from the northern part of Hijaz of today's Saudi Arabia.

Israel, as agreed in Sykes-Picot Treaty between the British and the French, was created out of the Sanjak (autonomous region) of Jerusalem and territories south of the Vilayet of Beirut. Originally, Lebanon was created on the Sanjak of Mount Lebanon for the Maronite Christians by their French sympathizers in 1926. Earlier, the Maronites had added the coastal towns of Tyre, Sidon, Tripoli, and Beirut. Later, they also added the fertile Bekaa Valley (Baalbek, Bekaa, Rashayya, and Hashabyya) from the Vilayet of Damascus with the active support of their French sympathizers. Syria was left with the Vilayets of Damascus and Aleppo.

In a repetition of history, this time the United States is engaged in Iraq and the French have to salvage Lebanon. It is a fact that the Hizbollah militia is not Lebanon's national army. Israel's final goal does not have any place for a hostile militia firmly entrenched as Lebanon's defender of sovereignty in place of a national army. The task of developing an effective Lebanese national army will take time. For Lebanese nationhood is yet to develop as a strong binding force. It remains to be seen whether France will commit itself to this task. It has to enlist the support of the Sunnite Arab states, but they have a united stand against Shiite domination in Middle East.

Now the only road in President Bush's road map for the Middle East is pointing towards Beirut. The heat is on the government of Lebanon. They will have to put their act together. Possibly, the Sunnite government and the Maronite president will be lumped together for taking part in developments leading to an agreement with Israel that will permanently sanitize its southern border. This is Israel's chance for a lasting settlement. They are bent on not letting it go. Israel knows from its experience that it cannot stay in Lebanon indefinitely. It wants to do the business quickly, and for that it means creating a situation which will compel the European powers to act.

What Israel has done in the last one month in conducting its military campaign could not recover their soldiers, nor could it nab the captors. It targeted the Shiite areas and in some cases the Sunnites as a matter of association. They used massive force as a means of flushing out the Hizbollah men, and in wreaking primitive vengeance on the organization. Use of such brute force is only seen in combats of modern warfare. The havoc of destruction and the collateral killing of innocent civilians, both in Lebanon and in Gaza, are apocalyptic in degree.

It is difficult to gauge the morale of Hizbollah and Hamas members, but the civilian populace in Lebanon and the milling Palestinians in the ghettoes of Gaza have been traumatically terrorized. Israel's operation "summer rain" has crippled the power system of the Gaza strip. A 360 sq km area, containing 1.3 million people, has been reduced to an abject condition. The residents of Gaza now get 6-8 hours of electricity and 2-3 hours of water supply. Israel maintains strict restrictions on the Rafa exit point. Even efforts by Egypt to restore the power system, with support from Islamic Development Bank, are running into Israeli obstacle.

Gaza, in the words of its residents, has become a giant prison. The miserably poor people of Gaza, with a per capita income of $2 dollar per day, are living in a reign of terror. When a state indulges in acts of terror, the suffering the innocents endure has a stranglehold. This amounts to stretching self-defence too far, beyond the limits of civilized existence.

The League of Nations has left a legacy of injustice in the Middle East. It is not within the means of the UN to roll back the injustice, but it should assert what it has set out to maintain. The inviolability of territorial integrity is an important cornerstone in international peace and a civilized world order.

The sanctions following the non-compliance of UN resolution worked for Libya, and Iran is being threatened with the same. But in the case of non-compliance by Israel, the UN is caught in paralytic torpor. The selective use of the UN is dangerously eroding its credibility. It is a matter for concern, because countries wronged will have no place to look to for justice. The super-powers have their own geo-political interests to look after.

The UN should be stabilized for the maintenance of balance in world order. Otherwise, frustration and desperation will have many rebels to contain.