UN predicts fragile growth for poor nations in 2006
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Developing countries should post a high economic growth rate of 6.2 percent this year but the pace of their expansion needs to be sustained, the UN's trade and development agency said Thursday. The forecast growth rate for 2006 is unchanged over last year and exceeds the global average of 3.6 percent, which is also unchanged compared to 2005, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its annual report. By comparison, wealthy economies including the United States, European Union and Japan should achieve a growth rate of 2.7 percent this year. In line with the rest of the world economy, average growth in developing countries is nearly twice what it was in 2002. Excluding China's booming economy, the fastest growth rates should be posted this year in Asia (7.0 percent), and in Africa (5.9 percent) where growth has accelerated consistently since 2002. The world's most populous nations China and India have contributed to that growth not only due to their size, UNCTAD said. It underlined their role as motors for industrial production throughout Asia and their broader impact on commodities markets due to their increasingly intensive needs for energy and raw materials. However, UNCTAD cautioned that developing economies are highly vulnerable to the impact of a cyclical global economic slowdown, especially an ensuing slump in commodities demand and prices. The report also argued that experience in recent years showed that developing nations which ignored some policies advocated by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in the 1980s and 1990s, grew faster and more consistently. "In order to reach the Millenium Development Goals, developing countries will have to grow much faster than they have done over the past 25 years," the report said. UNCTAD reiterated warnings about imbalances in the world economy, especially due to the "increasingly unmanageable global burden of the United States" and its financial deficits.
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