It appears that he will return to the BNP-Jamaat coalition which he had abandoned immediately before the last general election. I would, however, like to pose a question to our readers in the beginning, how many of you realised, in 1990, that HM Ershad would be back in politics with the desire of becoming president again?

I did not. I presume that even the former president was not sure about his meteoric rise in recent months. There is no point in dwelling on why this is the case, but the truth is that HM Ershad is here, and it looks like he is going to be here for some time to come (of course all depends on his health conditions since he is approaching 80) thanks to Begum Zia's generosity.

HM Ershad, when he forcefully captured power from an elected government in 1982 (BNP government led by Justice Sattar), was in the prime of his life and had just crossed fifty. He ruled the nation for nine years. Bangalees' appetite for liberal democracy threw him out of power in late 1990.

Liberal democracy, after fifteen years, still remains a dream for the nation. This time it is not his military might which has brought him back to the spot light, but the politicians who had so ardently brought him down almost fifteen years back.

He is not anymore a deposed, or humiliated, president but is the uncle of the nation's future politicians, a would-be partner of the erstwhile foes and, above all, the newly found member of the so-called retired military family.

In his prime age, General Zia regarded HM as a trusted and loyal man, and rewarded the repatriated general with the post of chief of staff. Now, Zia's son, with the consent of his mother, finds HM trustworthy again, and is considering him as the next president of the republic. Indeed, what a star the former president is blooming into!

If the readers look closely at the newspaper reports, nowadays, they will notice that many commentators have already made HM president (without giving a serious thought), as if BNP-Jamaat-JP together will certainly win the next election. However, it is certain that HM will bargain for the position of president if they win. Do you think Begum Zia would like to work under Ershad? As they say, there is no last word in politics and, maybe, for the sake of the power, she might do so. If she does that it will be the last nail in BNP's coffin.

As we have seen, during the last five years, she has been at odds with Jamaat at times. Jamaat-e-Islami has gained more political ground over the last five years than the BNP would like. Many commentators argue that to face Jamaat in the cabinet the next time (if she wins) she needs additional force, and that force must be drawn from all the splinter groups of the original JP.

In doing so, she must also be mindful about her son's future in politics. In recent days, HM denies the allegation that he had something to do with the killing of late President Zia, but the fact is that he cannot deny that he failed to save Zia. On top of that, HM captured power from a trusted man of President Zia. If President Sattar had the opportunity to complete his term, history would have been written differently. Of course, Begum Zia knows that very well.

Why is HM so desperate to become president again?

HM Ershad, although a retired general, loves to connect with the ordinary people in plain language. We do not recall any harsh words from him, either towards Khaleda Zia or Sheikh Hasina, in the last fourteen and a half years even though both the leaders had put him (on-again-off-again) in jail during their successive regimes.

However, in the past, one can recall that HM has been unkind towards the former president, Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed. Everyone knows why HM dislikes Justice Shahabuddin. It is Justice Shahabuddin who took over power from Ershad to form the caretaker government in 1990. HM's last wish to the winning leader would be to get back his lost position. One wonders, how can Khaleda Zia ignore such a desire of the newly found partner?

Having said that, one can see clearly that our two leaders (former president and sitting prime minister) are faced with a huge dilemma to solve the puzzle surrounding the JP (Ershad) joining four party coalition.

Taking first the dilemma of the PM. Practically, it would be very hard for her to share power with the former president if she wins again. If the last five years are a guide, her reputation as an uncompromising leader has been damaged, not only among the ordinary voters, but also among her own party men and women after she extended too many concessions to Jamaat-e-Islami from 2001 onwards.

She cannot afford to risk damaging her image further by providing concessions to her erstwhile formidable foe for the long term interest of the party. Besides, Jamaat and JP (Ershad) do not get on well as partners, as was seen earlier (it does not matter what the BNP secretary general says to cover this up). Ultimately, what Khaleda Zia does this time remains to be seen. In the past she had made lots of U-turns as far as the JP (Ershad) is concerned.

In the case of the former president, the dilemma is even greater. How is it possible for HM to trust his enemies of thirty years who have been extending the hand of friendship only during the election time. Begum Zia did not keep her word during her two terms. We know that the former president is indeed a formidable opponent. He is almost the only person, in the history of deposed presidents/prime ministers of the world, who was brave enough to refuse exile and stay back home, knowing well the risks involved.

It is true that many of his close aides had abandoned him over the years, but he had the courage (he claims he is a soldier) to face the consequences. Unfortunately, this time HM is no longer young. If he ends up in jail again it will break his heart to the extent that he might not be able to recover again. If he joins BNP-led coalition and does not win, the winning party will be not hesitate to put him in jail again, against the court cases that are still undecided. It is indeed a huge dilemma for the former president whether to join, or not to join, the BNP-led coalition.

From an outsider's point of view, the former president should work towards a legacy during whatever time he has left. Now is the opportunity for him to show the nation that he is genuinely sorry, and beg for mercy from the Almighty for his deeds during the nine years of his presidency.

It is needless to say that every politician would like to leave behind a legacy for the next generation. What legacy for HM Ershad? A ruthless dictator, or something else? The moment of truth has arrived for the former president, whether to become a puppet president, or to stand tall behind millions of his followers to propagate their causes further?

Finally, it is now certain that Begum Zia and HM Ershad have become politically bankrupt. By all means, to see the game unfolding in such fashion is too painful for two new generation politicians: Tareque Zia and GM Quader MP. Certainly, both Khaleda Zia and HM Ershad have spoiled their dinner.

The author is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.