The Iranian crisis is closely linked with Israel's security. People were talking till the other day of America having become tired after its rather fruitless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both states have been virtually destroyed; what obtains in both places is an anarchy that refuses to be controlled or contained. American troops looked like having bogged down in both countries. All said and done about oil, the reason why US went to war over Iraq has no acceptable rationale except Israel's security.

Destruction of the Iraqi state would work wonders for Israeli security, it was assumed by the neo-conservative thinkers in the US (who have not been ousted from all positions of influence). Israel would be well on its way to dominate the region after the strongest Arab state is removed from the map. They seemed to forget about Iran but actually hadn't; it was only a question of sequencing. Iran's turn was to come later.

Today Iran, on the other hand, is playing a deft political hand. It is projecting itself as a regional pre-eminent power by taking a strong anti-US stance; whether it is bluffing about its military strength or not, the fact of the matter is that its stance vis-a-vis Hamas (and its aid to Hamas) are projecting Iran on the Arab horizon as a benign and Arab-friendly power.

The point to emerge is that neo-con led America is seriously contemplating war with Iran, or maybe some restricted military action. Probably it is thinking of using tactical atomic weapons. The Americans refuse to withdraw the option of war the way they are seen to have done it in the case of North Korea after the latter declared itself to be a nuclear weapons power. As of now, there is doubt whether Iran would actually become a nuclear weapons power in the near future.

Should it become so, the Americans would then tend to cease having any incentive to go to war. Why? because the Iranian power already includes the power to retaliate both on the American fleet in the Gulf, a possible closing of the Straits of Hormuz or to strike at Israel. Should Iran become a nuclear power, its pre-eminent status in the Middle East would be firmly established and Americans would then be able to do little about it. The only window of opportunity that seems to be open to America is to attack Iran now.

Not that it would be easy going for the US to attack an even non-nuclear Iran. Nuking Iran may not be politically feasible. All American noises about non-proliferation would go up in smoke internationally if it were to use nuclear weapons once again. Even tactical nuclear weapons are, well, nuclear weapons and possess much destructive power. As it is, few assign any moral authority to the US. After a nuclear strike it will be ridiculous to talk of morality and US in the same breath.

There is another aspect. It would finally kill the nuclear non-proliferation regime altogether. The shock of America using nuclear weapons on non-nuclear countries it does not like would make the world far more dangerous than it already is. The American star will not rise to farther skies or create shock and awe. American prestige would plummet insofar as its standing in the world and global public opinion are concerned. The Americans have not yet lived down their brutal acts of August 6 and 9 in 1945. Can America actually do it again? No matter what its rhetoric would be, nothing will ever wash the blood of countless Iranians off their hands and even the party that does it would not be able to return to power for God knows how long.

Insofar as Israel's security is concerned, it is already radically threatened by the rise of Iran. For all its brave war-like stances, the Israelis may not be in a position to repeat what they did with Osirak in Iraq in 1980.

Apart from the fact that Iran is a larger country with a large population, such an attack can badly hurt the world economy. Iran can also attack Israel directly. Whether or not it acquires nukes soon, all the current talk of nuking its nuclear installations serves to induce Iran to become a nuclear power. After the contemplated strike, Iran's political behaviour would become overtly hostile in Iraq and beyond. That will be dangerous for both US and Israel.

As North Korea has pertinently reminded, pre-emptive strike is not the prerogative of only the US; others can act similarly. Anyway, Iran would surely like to retaliate in some way. Its restraint on the Iraqi question would vanish if Israel or the US makes any strike on its nuclear installations, irrespective of its results.

To begin with, unless the CIA and its brother agencies have already penetrated into those installations, their total destruction may not be achievable except through a proper nuclear bombing of a much higher magnitude and on a much larger scale than what the initial Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombing was.

Apart from the political cost, an abortive attack would make America a laughing stock. It would be a dangerous political folly from a longer-range viewpoint. Iran's star can rise, instead. The remaining American influence with the autocratic rulers of the Gulf would be severely threatened.

The forces that Iran can release by its friendly stance toward the Arab states are now unimaginable. There is no anti-Iranian sentiment in the Arab street today. America's non-proliferation talk has no moral force behind it. It has already been countered by the demand that Americans must do their part of the bargain if the rest of the world is to remain without nuclear weapons, as NPT stipulated. It is required to begin disarming itself of the atomic weapons. In any case, the Non-Proliferation Treaty is on its deathbed.

As the moral force behind NPT is slipping out at a growing pace, America's policy hitherto has not made any impact on Iranian rulers, except in one respect. The clerics' rule in Iran has become more popular due to the nationalistic sentiment. The old trend that saw Khatemi elected twice was a growing protest against the clerical rule. Now that sentiment has been smothered by America's gung-ho policies. Instead America may have put Iran on to a course of playing a role in the Arab world itself that used to be an American preserve.

The net impact of recent American actions has been that the Afghanistan state has been followed by uncontrollable anarchy that is drawing Pakistan into its coils. Many law and order problems in Pakistan have their origins in Afghanistan. Those who act as guerillas in Afghanistan are also doing the same work insofar as they can in Pakistan. As for Iraq, one has already noted that the civil war has broken out just as in Afghanistan. Iraq's future is bleak. Maybe Iran's star will rise further. Who has actually benefited from the American policies is a question that has to be pondered.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.