Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 657 Mon. April 03, 2006  
   
International


Victory may not be enough for Thaksin


Even a resounding victory for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in yesterday's election may not be enough to quell the street protests against him, analysts say.

But a clear mandate from voters would put him in a stronger position to negotiate an end to two months of political turmoil, amid signs that the public and the security forces are growing weary of street demonstrations in Bangkok.

Thaksin called the elections just 14 months after winning a landslide victory that made him seem an unassailable figure in Thai politics.

That changed in early February, when Bangkok's middle classes erupted in anger at a tax-free stock sale that earned Thaksin's family some 1.9 billion dollars.

The opposition decided to boycott the polls and some 400 candidates were disqualified over fraud in the nomination process, which left Thaksin's party unopposed in most constituencies in Sunday's vote.

It's the kind of victory he would rather not have.

Thailand's complex election laws require all 500 seats in parliament to be filled to confirm a new prime minister. The boycott means that is unlikely to happen.

He has tried to salvage the election by turning it into a referendum on his government, vowing not to take office if wins less than half the vote.

"He wants to prove to the public that he has a new legitimacy to govern. That's his scenario. But I don't think it works that way," said Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, deputy chief of the Board of Trade business lobby.

"We will see more demonstrations because opponents of Thaksin will reject the election outcome anyway," he said.

A key protest leader, Chamlong Srimuang, has already vowed to continue demonstrations until the premier resigns.

"For opponents, the issue is not about the election. It's about Thaksin's alleged corruption and abuse of power," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University.

But there are growing signs the protests are losing momentum.

Some 70 percent of Bangkok residents surveyed on Thursday said the protests should stop.

The national police chief said Sunday that the protests should end after the election.

"We should return to the rule of law after the election. Everybody should return to normal and not violate any laws or cause suffering to others," General Kowit Watana told reporters.

"Police have been very lenient for a long time," he said.

Thailand's army chief made similar remarks in Thai newspapers Sunday.