In Bihar what has happened is that the political hold of Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), has actually suffered a defeat, probably in more senses than one. The Congress government will not be numerically weakened at the Centre because the 25 MPs contributed by the RJD will continue to support it (though their moral position has been weakened by the defeat of their party). Lalu's RJD was an alliance between the Muslims (15 percent of Bihar) and the majority, represented by lower castes led by Yadavs (cowherds). The caste factor is like a writing on the sands. Each caste is multiplied by sub-divisions and each sub-caste can have its own organization and leadership. Indeed, there are various caste-based parties clamouring for the vote from lower castes. Even the Muslims are said to have been divided this time. RJD's was a building with weak foundations, kept in power by Lalu's skills. The caste and religious cards can be played by different political players -- and they have all played them. Caste and even religion have proved to be uncertain foundations for parties.

What will be the impact on the Central government? In the long run, the political crises facing it will be sharpened. Both the Congress and its allies have failed to keep Bihar in their fold. That defeat will weaken the moral authority of the Central government. Moreover, it is in an alliance that depends on the Left, but the Central government is unable to bridge the policy gap with it on the two vital policy orientations.

The government appears to be sold on the so-called "reforms" that Dr. Manmohan Singh had initiated in the early 1990s when he was Finance Minister under Rajiv Gandhi. This is the same "reform" that BJP claimed as its own when it gave the slogan of "Shining India" during last year's general election. BJP had lost because the "reforms" had actually increased the disparities of income and poverty appears to have deepened, even if it has not grown. Whether poverty has grown is a controversial subject in India, as it is in Pakistan. Both governments try every trick in the book to show that poverty is not growing; indeed they claim it is declining. But the fact of the matter is that on this and other questions the Centrist Congress itself is divided as also its allies. Only, its Left allies are decisively against the "reforms."

The second subject on which a storm is brewing is India's foreign policy. Its decisive change of course from non-alignment to alignment with the US has led to a crisis that may grow with time. The Left of course is dead set against an alignment with the US-led west. The rest of the country is divided. The affluent middle class and Big Business simply love America. And they are all for the alliance with America because it promises state of the art, high-tech military hardware from America. It also promises to recognise India as a responsible nuclear power with all the perks and privileges of a recognized nuclear power. The only price is that India has to toe the American line on almost every controversial question. But this prospect hurts the sensibilities of most Indians; few love becoming a US satellite. The Left bids fair to make more gains as time passes and the controversy is not resolved.

The fact is that the Congress is in a flux. It is certainly a major party and controls many Provincial Assemblies. But its own strength has been between 140 to 144 in the 545 strong national Parliament. But it has lost its hold over the populous provinces of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. Its residual strength is based on its supposed hold on the southern states that apparently looks to be at risk.

The BJP has been a bright star that suddenly rose but has rapidly dimmed. It lost last year's general elections. It remains to be seen whether its technical victory in Bihar will be a shot in its arm, though it has to be conceded that the BJP can now speak with a stronger voice. But its internal affairs are in a mess. The succession to its President Lal Kishan Advani is a divisive factor. What the prospects of the party are would depend on how it conducts itself in the next year or two under a new leader, expected in January 2006.

Congress was a great party that led India to independence. It ruled most of India unaided for most of its first 40 years. It gave India its Constitution and deepened the bases of democracy in Indians' hearts and minds. It can still be a colossus that has withstood several major setbacks during the last 28 years as a result of its bad governance. Its record on the communal issue is debatable. Doubtless it has been a secular party and it has, on the whole, conducted itself honourably. But many of its members were cynically communal in practice and had perfected the art of provoking local riots and later appearing on the scene to provide some succour to the aggrieved minority. Such tactics cost it a major defeat in 1977 and went on to lose the populous Hindi belt.

On Congress' moral decay has built the sharply rightwing but smaller house of the BJP. BJP's major shortcoming is that it is essentially an upper caste Hindu party with the exclusivist philosophy of Hindutva. It alienates religious minorities as well as forces all the lower caste Hindus to remain permanently where they are. Its rise in a previous election and the formation of NDA might prove to be a transient experience, depending upon the fate of both "reforms" and the policy of alignment with the west. Its foundations are not sound enough for a country like India.

The moral stock of the Leftists is growing because they champion the economic underdog. This will increasingly matter. Already one hundred MPs in the Lok Sabha favour the Left stance. They are against the "reforms" as much as against India's climbing on the American bandwagon. How will Indian politics work out in future remains to be seen. The BJP's Hindutva philosophy faces a challenge from caste, if not other religions. Since it excludes the minorities and the lower castes, the latter can only go elsewhere.

Insofar as the Congress is concerned, it is schizophrenic today. Its leadership is wedded to both "reforms" and the policy of close alignment with the US. The party, if it survives, cannot remain intellectually so divided; it can only go on losing and experiencing more setbacks. Should its members' majority hark back to the Nehruvian secularism, independent foreign policy, and a more caring economic policy, it may still have a future, perhaps in alliance with the Left.

M B Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.