Weekly Currency Roundup
Nov 27-Dec 1, 2005 Local FX MarketDemand for US dollar was high in this week. Money Market In the Treasury bill auction held on Sunday, bid for BDT 10,686.00 million was accepted, compared with total of BDT 18,757.00 million in the previous week's bid. Call money rate was steady this week. The rate ranged between 6.00-6.50 percent throughout the week. International FX Market The dollar hit a 27-month high against the yen on Monday and edged closer to recent 2-year highs versus euro and sterling as greenback buying on yield advantage gathered momentum after a long US weekend. In the absence of major data on Monday, investors pushed the dollar higher after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in anticipation of further rises in US interest rates. The euro kept a low profile as investors awaited European Central Bank speakers including Jean-Claude Trichet ahead of a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike this week. But the outlook beyond this week's rate hike remains unclear with Eurogoup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker saying there was no need for an ECB rate hike as it could further damage weak consumer confidence. The dollar eased against the yen in the middle of the week but stayed in sight of a two-year high as investors awaited US data due later in the session. Expectations that US interest rates will keep rising in the near term continued to underpin the dollar, but market players turned cautious about pushing the dollar up before the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to bump up its key rats -- the first increase in five years -- to 2.25 percent from the current 2 percent, but after that the central bank would not likely raise again anytime soon, traders said. The Federal reserve, meanwhile, is expected to tighten rates by 25 basis points next month and also in January, pushing the fed funds rate up to 4.5 percent. The dollar had rebounded on Tuesday as readings for US durable goods orders and new home sales in October and consumer confidence in November all came in stronger than expected, fuelling expectations that rates will climb. The euro was in sight of a lifetime high against the yen on Thursday ahead of an expected rate rise by the European Central Bank, while the dollar inched towards a fresh 2-year peak versus the Japanese currency. The ECB is widely expected to bump up its key rate to 2.25 percent from the current 2 percent later in the day, the first rise in 5 years. Dealers said the euro could suffer if the central bank did not deliver a bullish message to justify the view of many market players that the ECB will press on with another two-quarter-point rate rises in 2006 to ward off inflation. The rate decision is due at 1245 GMT, followed by a news conference with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at 1330 GMT. - Standard Chartered Bank
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