Bird flu pandemic: are we ready?
Ataur Katebi Gainesville, Florida
The possibility of a pandemic of Avian flu disease, also called bird flu disease, which is caused by the avian flu virus, is drawing attention from world leaders now. Avian flu is virus that used to be seen in wild birds. But the virus mutated and spread in poultry. This flu virus is carrying all the symptoms of being pandemic. There is a pattern of flu pandemics that occurred in the world. Scientists say that it takes 30 to 40 years for virus to mutate to stronger one that is resistant enough to cause a pandemic among humans. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed 20 million people worldwide.
The 1957 Asian flu pandemic killed more than one million after spreading from China.
The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic killed approximately one million people.
The 1997 Avian flu outbreak occurred in Hong Kong, first in chickens; then, it jumped to humans. After six people died, officials ordered all chickens slaughtered. The 2003 Avian flu virus, H5N1 strain, a mutated form of the virus, infected poultry populations in many parts of Asia and jumped to humans again. Since December 2003, H5N1 strain has infected 117 people and killed 60 of them. Thus, more than 50% of infected people died. The possibility that this Avian flu could mutate to spread infection from human to human is very high. And, if that happens, a pandemic will be inevitable. A UN health official warned that a pandemic of this sort could happen at any time and could kill 5 million to 150 million people throughout the world. WHO recommended a prophylactic strategy for all countries to follow:http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/WHO_CDS_CSR_GIP_05_8-EN.pdf There are two drugs that have proved to be effective, but not 100%, against this H5N1. But both of these drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, cannot be produced in bulk to supply to all the countries on a short notice - even the production will not be enough to supply only to the rich countries. Also, the virus can develop resistance against these drugs. In that case, creating a new effective drug may take a long time. As an overpopulated country, with a feeble health infrastructure, Bangladesh is at high risk, should a pandemic occur. I hope our media will help make the government and the people aware of the impending danger.
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