A tender has now been floated by the Ministry of Shipping and seven companies have been invited to bid on the technical-feasibility study of establishing such a port. Though such an initiative to improve the country's infrastructure should indeed be welcomed, on the other hand, one has to ask whether such a port is indeed going to be of benefit to the country?

First of all, the site that is being considered is located south of Cox's Bazar, and to develop the inland infrastructure to support such a port would be immensely time consuming and costly. Before a decision is taken on whether or not to connect the Asian Highway (and how), even thinking about making such an undertaking a sound one is doubtful, to say the least.

If we think about north-eastern Indian cargo, we can see that the main and almost only export item it has is tea. But we know that any trade should always be both ways for both parties' benefit. Whether or not it will be possible to attract cargo from north-eastern India is likewise doubtful, due to the political environment. Today cargo cannot move freely between the two countries. Then there is Bhutan and Nepal to be considered. But their export and import potential is in this respect so small that it is not going to make such a project fly. Myanmar has its own port (as does eastern India), so it is doubtful how much cargo Bangladesh would be able to attract from there as well.

The trend amongst international shipping lines is to build larger and larger container vessels calling on the so-called hub-ports. Containers are sent to these hub-ports via smaller container vessels (feeders). This is because of economies of scale. A new 8,000 teu (20 foot equivalent unit) in today's market costs more than $100 million, and shipping lines naturally want their investment to have a reasonable pay-back. Over the years the return of investment amongst the global shipping lines has been less than 10 per cent, and that would hardly attract a Bangladeshi investor, as raising money in Bangladesh would under normal circumstances cost more than that, bearing in mind our interest rates. This is presumably also why Bangladesh has not managed to build a container vessel fleet of its own.

One can look at a world map and realise that today the last hub-ports relevant for Bangladesh, the ones that are en route from the Far East to Europe and the east coast of the US, are in Singapore, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka. There are no major ports in-between, and this is not because of lack of sufficient water depth (15 meters plus is required for today's largest vessels). The simple reason is that the daily running costs for the container vessels and the requirement for fast transit times between the Far East and Europe will not allow them to deviate from the direct route: Singapore or Malaysia to Sri Lanka to Suez en-route to Europe. To call at a port in Bangladesh would require a deviation of some four days, and when you compare the cost (and time lost) with that of taking cargo from Myanmar, Bangladesh and eastern India to the hub-ports by feeders with that of the required deviation, it is simply not an economically viable proposition.

Bangladesh is unfortunately situated too far away from the main shipping routes to attract large container vessels to make direct calls, and therefore other alternatives should be looked upon to ensure that Bangladeshi imports and exports can be economically shipped from and to the rest of the world.

The much discussed need for improvement of the efficiency (and thereby cost reduction) in Chittagong port is progressing with the on-going ADB project, the upcoming gantry cranes, and the establishment of the new mooring terminal. There is more space to further expand Chittagong port to allow for the necessary growth in capacity in the years to come.

Then there is the port of Mongla. If dredging is done in the river, because of the need by planned industries en-route to Mongla or simply to allow Mongla to become an alternative to Chittagong, this port would indeed be a viable alternative. Approximately 70 percent of the total export of the country originates from Dhaka. Everybody realises that the Dhaka-Chittagong highway cannot sustain the required growth in traffic -- even if it is expanded to six or eight lanes over the years to come. Mongla is closer to Dhaka than Chittagong, and once the bridge is opened there would be opportunities in re-routing cargo to and from Dhaka via Mongla.

On top of this, one must consider expansion of the railway capacity between Dhaka and Chittagong, starting much more economically viable barge services for containers between these two points, and making it possible to allow containers to be stripped at consignee's premises and stowed at shipper's premises as is the practice in most countries of the world.

On sober reflection, then, the need for a deep sea port in Bangladesh is maybe not that compelling -- at least looking at a fifty years horizon!

Jamaluddin Quader Chowdhury is a leading businessman in the shipping sector.