Asia treads unevenpath to higher interest rates
Reuters, Singapore
Soaring oil and commodity prices are forcing most Asian central banks to raise interest rates, reining in months of expansionary monetary policy.But analysts say interest rates won't rise uniformly throughout the region because central banks will be loath to scuttle a recovery in domestic consumer demand. Indonesia and Thailand may raise rates faster than Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines, while Malaysia and China may not raise rates at all, they say. Concerns over inflation have risen as governments in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia removed fuel subsidies to let consumers feel the pinch of expensive oil, pushing inflation in some countries to levels not seen since the 1998 financial crisis. "If they are raising rates, it is driven by higher energy prices and the risk that feeds into inflation at some point," said Greg Gibbs, a senior currency strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney. Policy makers from other parts of the world including Europe, Canada and New Zealand share that concern, he said. But Asia is different, Gibbs said. "Inflation here is driven more by cost of raw materials than by labour markets or excess demand in these economies. On a broad scale, I don't see any reason to start panicking on the inflation front."
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