The race has already begun and Asian members have sought to establish their claim for this top UN job on the basis of existing informal system of geographical rotation among different regional groups. The late U Thant of Myanmar was the only Asian who had served as the Secretary General [1962-71]. His successors were Austrian Kurt Waldheim (1972-81), Peruvian Javier Perez de Cuellar (1982-91), Egyptian Boutros Boutros-Ghali (1992-96). Kofi Annan, Ghanaian, has occupied the world's most coveted diplomatic job since 1996.

The East Europeans are also trying to lay their claim by highlighting that their group has never served in that high post. The outgoing UN General Assembly President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland has expressed interest for the post. It is necessary to point out here that after the dissolution of Soviet Union, the East Europeans have lost their distinct political identity as most of the members of the group have already joined the NATO and the European Union.

The support for an Asian candidate is definitely gaining ground as the largest vote bank in the UN, -- the African group has agreed to support the Asian candidature. More importantly, two permanent members of the Security Council, Russia and China, have already pledged support for an Asian Secretary General. The other three permanent members, that is United States, France and United Kingdom have not so far made any public pledge. Support of the veto wielding permanent members is essential as any one of them can block any candidate.

So far Thai Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai and Sri Lankan former UN Under-Secretary General for Disarmament Jayantha Dhanapala have formally declared their candidature. South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon is another possible candidate.

Names of more candidates will surely surface as the race gains more momentum.

Experts believe that Asians, in order to clinch the job, should strive to nominate a competent and respected candidate who enjoys broad based support within the UN and more particularly of all permanent members of Security Council. Here they would be well advised to learn from the African experience.

In 1981, the Africans had unanimously endorsed the Tanzanian Foreign Minister Salim Ahmed Salim to replace Waldheim. Salim, a capable and well-known diplomat, had earlier served as the President of 34th Session of the UNGA. However, the UN veteran had somehow angered United States during his long stint at the world body. Washington had publicly stated its decision to veto Salim's candidature and privately urged Africans to come up with an alternative candidate.

Africans did not agree and Washington did veto Salim's candidature every time it came up for vote, while China vetoed the unprecedented third term bid of Waldheim. In order to break the deadlock, both the candidates withdrew and the Africans finally came up with a list of alternative candidates. It was too late and Africa lost the bid.ÊThe post went to the Latin American candidate Javier Perez de Cuellar of Peru.

Washington played equally crucial role in the election of Ghali in 1991 and his subsequent dumping in 1996. Ghali had antagonised them through his pronouncements on Israeli bombings of Lebanon and America decided not to give him the usual second term.

After the Salim episode, the Africans were more pragmatic and flexible. While they initially backed Ghali's reelection bid but once it was apparent that Washington would not change its mind, they quietly backed the candidature of Annan. The pragmatic course of action helped them keep an African as the Head of the UN for the last three terms. Message for Asian is simple and clear: be pragmatic and flexible.

The Thai candidate, who announced his candidature first, has the advantage of high political position as well as his country's close ties with Washington. Thais are playing an active and prominent role in the UN and it was their former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun who had chaired the 16-member high-level panel of experts, which formulated the important UN reform proposals.

The Thai high profile candidate is currently globe-trotting to gain wider support and, to please Washington and other Western countries, has pledged that he would make UN operations more transparent. Surakiarat, a Harvard-educated lawyer and economic expert took over as Deputy Prime Minister last March and had earlier served as Thai Foreign Minister. Thais claim they have already received backing of more than 70 countries including the ten-member ASEAN.

Dhanapala, a career diplomat, is a UN veteran. He served as his country's Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva and then as the Under Secretary General for Disarmament for five years. He believes his ten years of experience as a Chief delegate and as the Under Secretary General would be an asset at a time when the world body gets ready to implement the reform package adopted by the recent Summit. Dhanapala, who also served as his country's Ambassador to Washington, is currently a senior adviser to Sri Lanka's President Chandrika Kumaratunga and is the co-coordinator of negotiations with the Tamil militants. Both Thai and Sri Lankan Governments are trying hard to obtain the crucial support of Washington.

The South Korean possible candidate Foreign Minister Ben is a career diplomat who earlier was his country's Chief envoy to the UN from 2001-03. How Russia and China views the South Korean candidature remains to be seen.

Election is still about eleven months away and surely many things can happen. Any one who has worked in UN or, for that matter, in any multilateral organisation, should be ready to "expect the unexpected". Currently, the Thais have an edge. Nonetheless, it may all change as the date grows closer and becomes more intense for the "world's most impossible job", as the first UN Secretary General Trygve Lie of Norway had once said.

Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary.